The Buffalo News’ Robert J. McCarthy writes that Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz appears “widely viewed as planning for an unprecedented fourth term” even though he’s acknowledged the speculation that he could take a job in New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s administration, but Poloncarz could face opposition in the June Democratic primary from a familiar name.
Nate McMurray, who came unexpectedly close to flipping the now-defunct 27th Congressional District in 2018 and a 2020 special election, says he’s “considering” taking on Poloncarz should the incumbent run again. McMurray, who is a former supervisor of the town of Grand Island, faulted Poloncarz’s handling of the Christmas blizzard that left at least 47 people dead. Poloncarz, for his part, faulted the city of Buffalo for what he called its “embarrassing” response to the crisis, comments he apologized for days later.
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The big thing that Poloncarz and McMurray, as well as Hochul, have in common is that they’ve each gone up against Republican Chris Collins in a competitive general election. Poloncarz in 2011 broke the GOP’s 12-year-hold on the executive’s office by denying Collins a second term by a 52-46 margin. The defeated Republican executive, though, turned right around the next year and narrowly beat then-Rep. Hochul in the 27th District.
Collins’ grasp on his red constituency was threatened after he was accused of insider trading, and he was indicted in August 2018. McMurray ran a strong campaign against the scandal-ridden congressman in a seat that Trump had taken 60-35 two years before, but Collins held on 49.1-48.7 after he ran a xenophobic campaign showing footage of the Democrat speaking in Korean.
Collins resigned the following year as part of a plea deal with prosecutors: The GOP selected Chris Jacobs as its nominee for the June 2020 special, and he beat McMurray by an underwhelming 51-46 margin. Their November rematch, though, ended with a 60-39 victory for Jacobs as Trump was taking his district 57-41. Collins, meanwhile, soon received a pardon from Trump after serving just two months of what was supposed to be a 26-month prison sentence.
A few local politicians are also eyeing seeking the Republican nod to lead Erie County, and Jacobs himself again didn’t rule out the idea right before his term in Congress ended early this month, even as he said he planned to return to his business.
However, while McCarthy writes that Jacobs is “viewed in many Republican circles as the strongest candidate to challenge Poloncarz or another Democrat,” he might have a tough time getting the GOP nod if he wants it. That’s because Jacobs aborted his planned re-election campaign last year to avoid a tough primary over his newfound support for an assault weapons ban and related gun safety measures in the wake of recent mass shootings, including one in Buffalo.
County Clerk Michael Kearns sounds more interested in seeking the Republican nod to take on Poloncarz even though he’s a registered Democrat. Kearns, though, has a long taken advantage of New York’s fusion voting rules to run as the GOP nominee while still technically remaining a Democrat.
Last year, Kearns sought the Democratic nomination for the first time in years but lost the primary 62-36 to Eden Supervisor Melissa Hartman. The clerk, though, said even before that beat down that he’d also once again pursue the Republican and Conservative Party nominations, which he received: In November, Kearns defeated Hartman 54-46 even as Hochul, who is herself a former Erie County Clerk, carried her home county 53-47.
Another interested Republican is former state Sen. Edward Rath, though he lost re-election last year 57-43 to Democratic colleague Sean Ryan. West Seneca Supervisor Gary Dickson, however, tells the Buffalo News he likely won’t go for it himself even though McCarthy writes “he was receiving prominent mention among many GOP supporters.”
P.S. The Erie County government made news in a very different way on Wednesday when another Buffalo News reporter, Sandra Tan, reported that the new map for the County Legislature included legal descriptions with so many errors that “they send some district lines into Antarctica.” Ralph Mohr, who is the GOP’s member on the County Board of Elections, recently filed a lawsuit to prevent these boundaries from being used this year.
So how did this happen? Daily Kos Elections’ David Jarman tweets, “This redistricting failure story makes more sense if you're familiar with the Census Bureau's Geocoder site: if you input an address, it outputs longitude (the x axis) before latitude (the y axis), so you need to switch them back.”
