UPDATE: Wednesday, Jan 25, 2023 · 5:17:37 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
President Biden has just finished a brief address in which he officially announced that the U.S. will provide 31 M1A2 Abrams tanks to Ukraine along with supporting vehicles, parts, and training. Ukrainian troops will begin training on the Abrams right away, but there was no timeline or details on the source of these particular tanks. Expect to learn more in Pentagon briefings and further statements today.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Jan 25, 2023 · 4:18:33 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Russia is apparently trying to respond to the news of incoming Western tanks by rolling its flagship T-14 Armata onto the battlefield for the first time. However, there are a few problems: they’ve only built about twenty, all of those are prototypes with known issues, and the ones that have actually been handed off to Russian troops are in such bad shape, no one wants them.
To understand just how big a victory yesterday was for Ukraine, and how hard President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and members of his government have worked in pleading Ukraine’s case before NATO, it’s only necessary to go back in time exactly one year.
At that point, Russia was massing over 100,000 troops in Belarus and along the Russian-Ukrainian border. U.S. intelligence met repeatedly with the government of Zelenskyy, warning them that Vladimir Putin was determined to invade. President Joe Biden had issued several warnings to world leaders and the American people that all evidence showed Russia was not simply maneuvering or testing the waters this time. Invasion was imminent. And Zelenskyy was busy meeting with European leaders in an attempt to secure the diplomatic and military support his nation would need if it was going to weather the coming storm.
One year ago, Germany responded to Ukraine’s calls for assistance with an offer. It would send to them 5,000 … helmets. That’s all. Germany would not provide any weapons.
In one year, the German government has gone from reluctantly handing over a small number of surplus helmets to guaranteeing at least two companies of Leopard 2 tanks. That’s a victory that Ukraine has won on every battlefield—including the never-ending fight over public opinion—from Bakhmut to Berlin.
On Jan. 26, 2022, then-German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht had this to say about the situation in Ukraine and that frustrating offer of nothing but helmets: "The German government is agreed that we do not send lethal weapons to crisis areas because we don't want to fuel the situation, we want to contribute in other ways.” Ways that did not upset Russia.
At the time, 50% of all natural gas sold in Europe, and 55% of the gas sold in Germany was sourced from pipelines leading straight back into Russia. It would be another three weeks—just two days before Russian tanks crossed the border into Ukraine—before Chancellor Olaf Scholz suspended the opening of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
No nation in Europe saw its own economy as tied to Russia as Germany’s was. When Putin threatened a cut off of gas supplies, it was easy for German politicians to see that in terms of idle factories, lost jobs, and angry voters. Also, Germany is, well … Germany. There may not be a German word for we-started-World-War-II-and-slaughtered-millions-of-people-at-home-and-abroad-and-now-we-deliberately-nurse-an-anathema-to-things-military-and-that’s-a-good-thing … but on the other hand, there might. There is certainly a different attitude in Germany to anything that might be seen as more than a purely defensive military. And yes, it would not be a bad thing if that continued.
Dragging Germany from helmets to companies of Leopard 2 tanks, with many steps in between, has been a battle. In that battle, Ukraine has enlisted allied governments, political pressure, and public opinion. And now it’s finally official.
To be fair, at this point Germany is one of the larger contributors to Ukraine, especially in some critical areas. They have provided an IRIS-T air defense system system and 30 Gepard anti-aircraft guns that are defending Ukrainian cities. More of both (including three more IRIS-T systems) are on the way. They’ve handed over artillery including at least five M270 MLRS and 14 German Panzerhaubitze 2000s. They’ve given hundreds of transport vehicles, more than 10,000 anti-tank weapons, and a lot of the basic materiel the Ukrainian Army needs. That includes 28,000 of those helmets.
Oh, and this morning Scholz said he wasn’t ruling out sending Western fighter jets to Ukraine, which is the next big hurdle Zelenskyy’s government hopes to clear. Maybe this time Germany will be the first to break the artificially erected barrier.
At the moment, here’s what seems to be certain in terms of main battle tanks headed for Ukraine in the first wave:
- One company (14 tanks) of Leopard 2 tanks (A6 version) from Germany.
- One company (14 tanks) of Leopard 2 tanks (A4 version) from Poland.
In both cases, these look to be not just the tanks, but the supporting vehicles and materiel needed to make the tanks operational in the field. Germany has indicated that these tanks could be sent within the next three months, depending on Ukraine’s readiness to accept them. Ukrainian troops are to begin training in Germany immediately.
These two companies of Leopard 2 tanks can be expected in Ukraine some time around May. That’s also about the same time that the company of Challenger 2 tanks provided by the U.K. should be in-country and and ready to roll. Russia is well known for having a big “Victory Day” parade on May 9 each year. Seems like Ukraine might be in a position to hold a very special parade of their own at about the same time.
What comes next looks to be enough Leopard 2s for a couple of battalions, but these announcements are not yet official. Zelenskyy is asking that the members of the new “Leopard coalition” provide “a lot of Leopards.”
- Spain will reportedly send 40-60 of its 108 Leopard 2A4 to Ukraine. (As this piece was being written, Spanish newspapers are reporting that it will be 53 with an official announcement today.)
- Sweden is still considering how many of its 120 Stridsvagn 122 (a modified version of the Leopard 2A5) it will send, but it seems clear it will send at least a company.
- Norway is reportedly offering eight Leopard 2A4s.
- Finland is reportedly sending a company (14) of Leopard 2A4 with the associated vehicles.
- Portugal is reportedly looking to send a smaller number of Leopard 2A6. Right now, it looks like four.
Delivery dates on these tanks are not known, but much of this is likely to be cleared up before the end of the week. Put it all together and Ukraine ends up with over 100 Leopard 2s and the possibility of over 100 more to come.
All of this is in addition to the reported 30 M1A2 Abrams tanks the U.S. reportedly will send, but which have not been officially announced. Overnight there have been reports that the Abrams sent to Ukraine would not be units pulled from U.S. storage, but would be newly minted export models of the Abrams, such as those now in use by several nations in the Middle East. If so, this would delay any delivery by a period of months. In fact, some publications are indicating that the Abrams won’t be in Ukraine for “years.”
It’s hard to know just how much of this is accurate, or why the U.S. would bother sending 30 tanks that may not make it until after the current invasion is well and truly over. Maybe the NATO allies have hit on a plan where the Leopard 2 addresses Ukraine’s immediate needs, while the Abrams becomes its long-term main battle tank. But if so, it will take a lot more than 30 tanks. Hopefully this will also be resolved in the next few days.
In any case, celebrate. When it comes to the Leopard 2, it’s time to take all the might, may, and maybe out of the discussion. This tank is going to Ukraine.
As you might expect, Russian commentators are taking this with the grace and good humor for which they are well know.
That guy is Vladimir Solovyov. He’s kind of the Tucker Carlson of Russia. Tucker Carlson will undoubtedly be delivering the same message tonight.
Not everyone is being cooperative when it comes to Ukraine.
The Hawk missiles are reportedly mothballed in favor of newer systems now deployed across Israel. However, Putin was one of the first to welcome Benjamin Netanyahu back into power at the end of the year and there have been suggestions that Netanyahu might serve as a mediator in “peace talks” between Russia and Ukraine. That might be one reason that Israel is currently trying to make no motions toward helping Ukraine.
In other news, someone has a birthday today.
Let’s hope he and his family have a good day, and that they, along with other Ukrainians, can soon return to a peaceful life.
Markos and Kerry are joined by University of St. Andrews Professor of Strategic Studies, Phillips P. O’Brien. O’Brien, an expert in military history, explains how we got to where we are right now, what is unique about the world’s reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the parallels between the conservative movement’s isolationism in World War II and now.