Back in early November, some of Russia’s best remaining troops—their Naval Infantry (we call them “marines”)—stormed the town of Pavlivka in southeastern Ukraine. While they eventually captured the town (or at the very least, forced Ukraine to withdraw and leave it a “gray” area, as in the map below), the operation was horrifically costly.
Unlike Bakhmut, where Russian prisoners are doing the brunt of the dying, losing hundreds of Naval Infantry soldiers reverberated around Russia. Its nationalist blogger community on Telegraph was livid. People demanded heads roll for the massive loss of life! Eventually the furor died, but the whole sordid affair sent notice that good Russian army forces shouldn’t be treated like Wagner cannon fodder or conscripts.
Except, there were two problems:
1. Pavlivka was never the goal of the operation, it was next-door Vuhledar. Unlike the siege of Bakhmut, Vuhledar actually has strategic value. From its heights, Ukraine has shorter-ranger artillery coverage of critical rail and road links servicing much of the front. So the effort, by necessity, had to be eventually restarted; and
2. Russia doesn’t have leadership capable of learning from its mistakes, or adapting strategy to, say, “minimize casualties.” So once again, just like in November, Russia’s naval infantry is getting massacred in this corner of the map.
We can take special note of the consistent use of air-burst artillery for the first time this war (at least on publicly-released video). Air burst explodes above infantry, raining shrapnel down on them. It is less effective against protected infantry. But as Russia runs out of armor and sends its unprotected fodder forward, we’ve seen greater use of it.
Unlike Wagner fodder around Bakhmut, these naval infantry troops actually launched their operation with armor. It just didn’t last long against Ukrainian anti-armor defenses, leaving exposed infantry to fend for themselves. We don’t see them often anymore, but Ukrainian troops still have Javelins to throw at Russia’s dwindling armor:
Another failed attack:
Whether it’s Wagner or the 155th, Russia still knows only one way to advance: level a town, then send infantry forward to see if any defenses remain. If they do, sucks to be those guys doing “reconnaissance.” They’re dead. Russia launches the next artillery salvo, rinse, lather, repeat.
Here’s what one of those artillery barrages sounds like from the Ukrainian side:
After the artillery barrages, they follow up with infantry. Here are some Russian marines approaching the town:
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So far, it hasn’t worked. Russia has had stunning success leveling Vuhledar, no success in taking it. Not that it has stopped Russian from claiming, repeatedly this past week, of great successes in their attacks. Yet the visual evidence is clear. And today, war criminal Igor Girkin, the former head of the Luhansk and Donetsk militias, a rabid Russian nationalist, and fierce war criminal, was dismissive of Russian claims:
"In Vuhledar, the statements about a breakthrough as expected, turned out to be a lie (expectedly, because [the Russian governor of occupied Donetsk] Denis Pushilin shouted the loudest - and he is an expert on lies, theft and cheating). Now the troops trying to storm it are in an extremely disadvantageous position."
I’ve seen pictures on Telegram of entire trenches overflowing with their dead marines. I won’t link, because I wish I hadn’t seen.
Again, this is a huge problem for Russia, losing more of the few remaining “elite” trained forces left in its ranks. And, just as importantly, it shows that Russian generals are incapable of learning from their mistakes, dooming their hapless soldiers to an endless cycle of death and misery. And more importantly, more death and misery for Ukraine itself.
Markos and Kerry are joined by University of St. Andrews Professor of Strategic Studies, Phillips P. O’Brien. O’Brien, an expert in military history, explains how we got to where we are right now, what is unique about the world’s reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the parallels between the conservative movement’s isolationism in World War II and now.
