The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
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Leading Off
● OH Redistricting: A campaign to end Republican gerrymandering in Ohio cleared a significant hurdle on Thursday. The state Ballot Board, which has a Republican majority, unanimously voted that a ballot initiative that would create an independent redistricting commission complies with state law, clearing the way for supporters to soon begin gathering voter signatures to get it onto the November 2024 ballot. If the measure qualifies and wins voter approval, the proposed constitutional amendment would require the new commission to draw fairer maps in 2025, replacing the GOP's current gerrymanders.
Daily Kos Elections recently took an in-depth look at how the proposed commission would work. The ballot initiative effort is being led by a group called Citizens Not Politicians, whose website has more information about how to support the effort.
Supporters face an initial July 3, 2024, deadline to gather 413,487 signatures statewide—a number equal to 10% of votes cast in the 2022 election for governor—though they would receive an extra 10 days if they fall short. Backers also must obtain signatures equal to 5% of the votes cast for governor in 44 of Ohio's 88 counties. This county-based requirement significantly disadvantages progressives—but not conservatives—because even the bluest half of Ohio's counties include ones that Donald Trump won by up to 70-28, which is far redder than his 53-45 statewide margin.
However, redistricting reformers already received a significant boost in August when Ohioans voted 57-43 to reject a Republican-backed ballot measure that would have made it considerably harder for voters to pass any future constitutional amendments, requiring a 60% supermajority of voter support instead of a simple majority. The GOP's measure also would have required signatures for voter-led amendments in all 88 counties and eliminated the 10-day grace period for gathering additional signatures.
Top Republicans had been exposed saying that the purpose of their failed amendment was to block voters from passing an abortion-rights measure next month and approving redistricting reform next year, both of which now have a chance for voters to make the measures law.
If approved by voters, the redistricting amendment would create a commission of 15 members—five Democrats, five Republicans, and five unaffiliated members—with strict limitations on who can serve as a commissioner, including a ban on elected officials, lobbyists, and other politically connected individuals. The amendment imposes several criteria for drawing new maps, which critically includes a requirement that the proportion of districts favoring each of the two major parties reflects each party's level of support in statewide elections over the previous six years.
The reform would replace Ohio's flawed bipartisan process, which let Republicans, who dominate state government, pass aggressive gerrymanders after the 2020 census. Ohio's Supreme Court had struck down the GOP's congressional maps twice and their legislative maps five times, but the Republican-backed amendments that voters had passed last decade to create the current system didn't let the court draw its own maps. Republicans were therefore able to run out the clock and use a set of illegal maps that preserved their supermajorities.
Republican stonewalling paid off last year because a moderate Republican justice who had sided with her three Democratic colleagues to strike down the maps was barred from seeking reelection due to age limits, and hard-line Republicans subsequently gained a 4-3 majority on the state Supreme Court. The state's GOP-controlled bipartisan redistricting commission recently approved a sixth set of legislative gerrymanders that would otherwise remain in use for the rest of the decade, but the redistricting reform amendment would, if it passes, replace them with fairer maps in 2025.
Election Night
● LA-Gov: Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry and the contest's only serious Democrat, former state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson, have each spent most of the year as the favorites to advance out of Saturday's 15-person all-party primary, and they remain so just ahead of Election Day. A Nov. 18 runoff would only take place if no candidate won a majority of the vote this weekend, but while some observers have speculated that Landry might be able to win outright, it would be a surprise if he exceeded 50% in such a packed field.
The last poll we saw in the race to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards was a mid-September survey from Mason-Dixon that placed Landry in first with 40% as Wilson outpaced Republican Stephen Waguespack, who is the former head of the state's Chamber of Commerce affiliate, 24-9 for second place. Wealthy independent Hunter Lundy drew 4%, while two more Republicans, Treasurer John Schroder and state Sen. Sharon Hewitt, respectively grabbed 3% and 2%; previous surveys found comparable results.
A runoff between Landry and Wilson in this dark red state would be an uphill battle for the Democrat, who is trying to become the first Black person elected since Reconstruction. Mason-Dixon found the attorney general ahead 52-39, though Landry actually performed better when tested against his other opponents. The RGA is taking Wilson seriously, though, as it's spent over $1 million in ads against him.
● LA-SoS: Republican Secretary of State Kyle Ardoin is retiring, and while none of the three main GOP candidates running in the eight-person race to succeed him have embraced the Big Lie, two of them have winked at election conspiracy theories.
Bolts' Cameron Joseph writes that Nancy Landry, who is Ardoin's top deputy, declared at a candidate forum, "I do think that President Biden is the legitimate president, but I do think there were some very troubling allegations of irregularities in many states." Landry (who is not related to Attorney General Jeff Landry), went on to argue that, while the state's elections are secure, "I understand people's concerns and their lack of confidence in elections. I think most of it is based on what they've heard that happened in other states."
State House Speaker Clay Schexnayder has employed similar rhetoric, declaring that "we don't have any overreach from the federal government to come in and manipulate elections" and pledging to form a body to "investigate all and any allegations made towards election irregularities." Public Service Commissioner Mike Francis, who was challenging Ardoin before the incumbent retired, also told Joseph he'd hold a "technical conference" to test "all these accusations about the wrongdoing," but he added he hoped this would inspire confidence in the state's elections.
Two major Republican donors very much want to see Landry advance at Schexnayder's expense. Nola.com's Sam Karlin says that a PAC funded by 2019 gubernatorial nominee Eddie Rispone and Lane Grigsby has been airing ads labeling the speaker "Shady Clay."
The GOP field also includes grocery store owner Brandon Trosclair, who has embraced the Big Lie but has little money or party support. Two notable Democrats are also in: Former Orleans Parish Criminal District Clerk of Court Arthur Morrell, who hails from a prominent New Orleans political family, and Gwen Collins-Greenup, who lost to Ardoin 59-41 in 2019. The ballot additionally includes another Republican and an independent.
The winner will be tasked with managing the state's badly aging election equipment, and state law expert Quinn Yeargain writes in Guaranteed Republics that "voting machines are on the ballot in Louisiana in a way that they haven't been since 1972, when Louisiana last elected a State Custodian of Voting Machines." Yes, that was a real post: Yeargain explains that it came into existence in the 1950s thanks to a truly bitter feud between the legendary Gov. Earl Long and Secretary of State Wade Martin.
Check out Yeargain's piece for the story behind this strange office, as well as why Long once said, "I can't make a jackass out of myself or I will make a jackass out of the people who voted for me."
● LA Treasurer: Former Rep. John Fleming, a conservative hardliner who served four terms in the House before waging a failed 2016 Senate bid, is trying to achieve a comeback by winning the race to win the office that GOP Treasurer John Schroder is giving up to run for governor. Schroder, though, announced days before the election that he was backing a different Republican, state Rep. Scott McKnight. The final candidate is Democrat Dustin Granger, a financial planner who unsuccessfully ran for the state Senate in a 2021 special election.
● LA Ballot: Louisiana will become the first state in the nation to let voters weigh in on a proposal to ban private funding for elections. That effort comes after years of conservative conspiracy theories about Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg's role in providing grants to local election authorities to help them handle pandemic-related disruptions during the 2020 presidential election. We still haven't seen any polls since we profiled Amendment 1 in late August, though a prominent local voting rights advocate told Bolts' Alex Burness that month that he was pessimistic about beating it.
● Lafayette Parish, LA Mayor-President: A bitter race to lead Acadiana's largest community pits incumbent Josh Guillory against a fellow Republican with a prominent name: former Acadiana Planning Commission CEO Monique Blanco Boulet, who is the daughter of the late Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco. A third Republican, attorney Jan Swift, is also running.
The race took a nasty turn last month when Guillory sought a restraining order against Boulet to prevent her from calling him corrupt, an allegation the incumbent argued was a lie. However, a judge sided with the challenger and dismissed the suit after concluding that Guillory's team failed to put forward enough during a six-hour hearing.
3Q Fundraising
- CA-Sen: Katie Porter (D): $3.4 million raised, $12 million cash on hand
- CA-45: Michelle Steel (R-inc): $1 million raised, $2.4 million cash on hand
- MI-10: Anil Kumar (D): $177,000 raised, additional $401,000 self-funded, $544,000 cash on hand
- MT-02: Matt Rosendale (R-inc): $335,000 raised
- TX-34: Mayra Flores (R): $861,000 raised
Senate
● NJ-Sen: Federal prosecutors on Thursday released a superseding indictment against Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez alleging that the former Foreign Relations Committee chair "provided sensitive U.S. Government information and took other steps that secretly aided the Government of Egypt." The Justice Department accused Menendez of violating federal law by acting as an unregistered agent of a foreign country; the senator has refused calls for his resignation in the weeks since he was first indicted on corruption charges.
● WI-Sen: The National Journal's Sydney Kashiwagi writes that rich guy Eric Hovde likely won't launch a bid against Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin "until later this year or even next year if he does decide to run." Republicans still do not have a credible candidate against Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin, though they argue Hovde's ability to self-fund allows him to take his time.
Governors
● KY-Gov: Campaign finance reports covering Sept. 9 through Oct. 8 show Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear outraising Republican Daniel Cameron $1.5 million to $530,000 and going into the final month with a $1.9 million to $1 million cash on hand lead.
● MO-Gov: Restaurant business CEO Mike Hamra has filed paperwork to seek the Democratic nod for governor, and he says he'll likely announce his plans by the end of the month.
● NC-Gov: The GOP firm Cygnal's survey for the conservative John Locke Foundation finds far-right Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson far outpacing Treasurer Dale Folwell 49-5 in the March Republican primary, with 41% undecided. Every poll we've seen has shown Robinson dominating the nomination contest.
● WV-Gov: Attorney General Patrick Morrisey's allies at Americans for Prosperity West Virginia have publicized an internal from i360 that shows him beating Del. Moore Capito 29-18 in the May GOP primary. Two other contenders, Secretary of State Mac Warner and businessman Chris Miller, respectively take 8% and 6%, while a 37% plurality is undecided or opts for an unnamed other candidate. The survey was released about a month after Research America's poll had Capito leading Morrisey 32-27 as Miller grabbed 9%.
This new poll came out the same week that the candidates released their fundraising totals for the third quarter:
- Morrisey: $560,000 raised, additional $40,000 self-funded, $1.5 million cash on hand
- Capito: $280,000 raised, $1.1 million cash on hand
- Miller: $270,000 raised, $3.6 million cash on hand
- Warner: $70,000 raised, $210,000 cash on hand
Huntington Mayor Steve Williams launched his bid for the Democratic nod last month, but he said he wouldn't be filing paperwork to fundraise until the start of the fourth quarter.
House
● AL-02: State House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels tells the conservative site 1819 News that he's interested in seeking the Democratic nod for this redrawn seat even though his Huntsville base is located well to the north of the 2nd. Daniels touted that he grew up within the confines of the revamped seat in Bullock County and argued, "At the end of the day, if we limit representation based on lines and whether or not a person can actually do something to really have a positive impact on the entire district, that's my home."
And while the Alabama Political Reporter recently wrote that an unnamed person close to Daniels believed he'd defer to Montgomery Mayor Steven Reed if he got in, the minority leader declared, "I'm not limiting my ability to make a decision based on who gets in, who gets out." Daniels added that he planned to decide by early November.
● IL-17: Former state Circuit Judge Joseph McGraw announced Wednesday that he would take on freshman Democratic Rep. Eric Sorensen, and The Pantagraph writes that he has support from the NRCC. McGraw, who stepped down from his post in July, currently has the GOP side to himself as he tries to flip a north-central Illinois constituency that favored Joe Biden 53-45.
● NJ-03: State Assembly Majority Whip Carol Murphy on Wednesday became the first notable candidate to enter the race to succeed Rep. Andy Kim, a fellow Democrat who is waging a primary bid against indicted Sen. Bob Menendez. Murphy, who was first elected to the legislature in 2017, would be the first woman to represent a South Jersey-based seat in Congress. Joe Biden won the current version of this seat 56-43.
● NJ-07: Roselle Park Mayor Joe Signorello has confirmed that he's dropping out of the Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr., telling the New Jersey Globe that he didn't bring in enough money to continue. Signorello's departure leaves Working Families Party state director Sue Altman and former State Department official Jason Blazakis as the two notable Democrats in the running.
Attorneys General
● PA-AG: EMILY's List has endorsed former Philadelphia Public Defender Keir Bradford-Grey in next year's busy Democratic primary.
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