Hill watchers are not bullish on Jordan’s chances here, but anything can happen when Republicans get scared. The pressure is coming from McCarthy, a Jordan backer, and all the campaign money he controls and of course from Trump and his MAGA hordes. They are also concerned about being part of the clown car that has kept the speakership vacant for two weeks, and how bad that looks for them.
One thing to watch for in this first (maybe only?) round of voting is how many Republicans wait until the second read-through of the roll call to vote.