Russia considered using a Soyuz rocket as a huge bomb to attack Ukraine. This is confirmation of similar reports from the summer. The big problem with this scheme apparently was that the space bomb would burn up on re-entry.
The Russians managed to plant a flag on the top of the huge slag heap north of Avdiivka known as Terrikon. They didn’t seize the hill. They planted the flag and left (or died). And so far it has only cost them thousands of dead soldiers and hundreds of armored vehicles.
It’s one thing to get to the top of the hill, another thing to keep it. It’s completely exposed and they aren’t going to be able to dig trenches.
Despite their massive losses, Russia has thrown everything into this offensive and is making small gains. But they might want to look up the definition of a Pyrrhic victory.
The flags didn’t last long.
A turret toss from a T-72 that includes a secondary explosion.
Were there no upper floors with windows?
Russian women are getting a promotion from the chance to be a “field wife” to the opportunity to die for nothing.
Imagine Robert Duvall sniffing the air and proclaiming “I love the smell of burning Russian tanks in the morning. It smells like victory.”
Russia’s counter-battery capabilities were already bad.
Unfortunately there has been no indication of what blew up.
What’s shocking about this is that Russians are actually taking care of a wounded comrade. He must be an officer.
Here’s an update on the Ukrainian attack in the fog near Robotyne.
Interesting analysis from Carnegie fellow Dara Massicot on the machinations at the top of Russia’s defense apparatus.
The thread is below. The takeaway: Gerasimov leans toward offensive operations because that’s what he thinks Putin wants, plus the fact that Surovikin lost his job for concentrating on building defensive lines. Gerasimov thinks he can continue to use brute force at Avdiivka because production of artillery shells and deliveries from North Korea are improving and he has sufficient manpower.
This will go on until and unless there is someone internally with the cojones to oppose him.
He and Shoigu have personality conflicts with their subordinates when (presumably) they were advocate for different ways forward more appropriate to the damaged status of the Russian army (like assuming defensive postures or relieving forces on time)/ 3
But Shoigu and Gerasimov are loyal to the end and so they are kept in their jobs regardless of their command deficiencies /4.
So now the Russians have launched another localized offensive and are losing elements of three brigades from the 2nd CAA (central MD), DNR, and possibly one from 41st CAA near Avdiivka, if this account is accurate. /5.
Russian forces have lost over a hundred vehicles in their attempts in the last two weeks. Their assaults are straining UAF forces in the area, but UAF units are holding. /6
Gerasimov prefers to go on the offensive, bc that’s what he thinks is needed and/or what the boss wants. I believe this was a factor for why Surovikin was demoted — who at the time was taking a different defensive approach and constructed multiple defense belts. /7
Within weeks of Gerasimov taking over in February, the Russians launched an offensive that fizzled. /8.
Prigozhin is dead. Surovikin is excited or suspended indefinitely. Who else remains who could push back on Gerasimov’s bad ideas now? /9
Handpicked Aleksei Kim won’t be the one to push back on Gerasimov. Rudskoi (below left), and the Rostov crew (below right) won’t be the ones either. Teplinskiy keeps a low profile or goes to the field, and is perhaps trying to shield the VDV where possible (his service). /10
I’m not sure after the prigozhin affair that anyone in the command at Rostov feels sporty enough to push back on Gerasimov anymore when events go poorly. He has Putin’s confidence anyway. /11
There’s a reason why some milbloggers seethe about Surovikin being sidelined/exiled, as some did last week on his birthday. Some passed around his pictures, said we don’t forget their heroes, he is needed on the front, etc. /12
So what does this all mean so far? Troubling because the Russians are throwing vehicles and bodies at Avdiivka at great cost. This the largest attack since mid-2022. These methods strain the UAF who are defending well, but face large volumes of Russian fires and assaults. /13
Gerasimov made brigades available for Avdiivka and other locations, Russians rotated some in the south suggesting there is a padding in manpower. I don’t want to over-interpret availability beyond these 4-5 or so brigades yet (10-20k depending on staffing levels) w/o more info.
Recent deliveries in artillery munitions from the DPRK and Russian domestic production going up this year and next could make Gerasimov feel confident that he can brute-force his way through this with shells and sacrificing storm z or regular units. /15
Russian advantages in mass are partially undercut by UAF precision fires, DPICM and ATACM use, deep strikes on logistics, prudent planning, and better ISR. Yet, the quantitative imbalance of available artillery shells will not improve in the near term. /16
Gerasimov can look at his spreadsheets and tell himself a (true) story that he will have artillery advantages in the months ahead and may think he has manpower to spare. But spreadsheets don’t fight as @KofmanMichael says /17
Russian losses are high at Avdiivka. Gerasimov and the Russian command are likely to continue to burn resources until he is stopped also by someone internally. The situation is fluid around Avdiivka. /18
Not suspicious at all.
The previous chair of the board of directors fell out of the hospital window on August 1, 2022.In May of 2022, another top manager died after a seance with the local shamans.
One guy who did NOT die (unfortunately) was Vladimir Vladimirovich.
There was all kinds of speculation and celebration yesterday that he had had a heart attack in his bedroom and had to be resuscitated. Alas, he’s still wasting perfectly good oxygen. But, hey, there are views to be harvested.
Besides, Putin shouldn’t get to leave this world that easily. He deserves a much more ignominious end in a jail cell at The Hague.
Hungarians revolted against Soviet occupation 67 years ago. At least some of them don’t want to return to Russia’s orbit.
This is from a Twitter account run by foreign fighters in Ukraine.
Maybe it’s a sign … a good sign.