Dr. Zeke Hausfather is a research scientist at Berkeley Earth, an independent organization that analyzes environmental data. His recent op-ed essay in the New York Times was a frightening warning. Hausfather has master’s degrees in environmental science from Yale University and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and a PhD in climate science from the University of California, Berkeley. He opened the essay describing the latest climate data as “Staggering. Unnerving. Mind-boggling. Absolutely gobsmackingly bananas.”
This is what Hausfather, the climate scientist, reported in the New York Times essay:
“September was an astounding 0.5 degree Celsius (almost a full degree Fahrenheit) hotter than the prior record, and July and August were around 0.3 degree Celsius (0.5 degree Fahrenheit) hotter. 2023 is almost certain to be the hottest year since reliable global records began in the mid-1800s and probably for the past 2,000 years.”
“[T]he record global temperatures we have experienced this year could not have occurred without the approximately 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming to date from human sources of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions.”
“[T]here is increasing evidence that global warming has accelerated over the past 15 years rather than continued at a gradual, steady pace. That acceleration means that the effects of climate change we are already seeing — extreme heat waves, wildfires, rainfall and sea level rise — will only grow more severe in the coming years.”
“[T]he rate of warming we’ve measured over the world’s land and oceans over the past 15 years has been 40 percent higher than the rate since the 1970s, with the past nine years being the nine warmest years on record.”
“[T]here has been acceleration over the past few decades in the total heat content of Earth’s oceans, where over 90 percent of the energy trapped by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is accumulating.”
“[S]atellite measurements of Earth’s energy imbalance — the difference between energy entering the atmosphere from the sun and the amount of heat leaving — show a strong increase in the amount of heat trapped over the past two decades.”
There is a “cautious,” but hopeful side to Hausfather’s report. “It’s now clear that we can control how warm the planet gets over the coming decades. Climate models have consistently found that once we get emissions down to net zero, the world will largely stop warming; there is no warming that is inevitable or in the pipeline after that point. Of course, the world will not cool back down for many centuries, unless world powers join in major efforts to remove more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere than we add.”
This is a summary of the September 2023 Temperature Update from the Berkeley Eart website. It is their analysis of global temperature conditions.
- Globally, September 2023 was the warmest September — and the largest monthly anomaly of any month — since records began in 1850.
- The previous record for warmest September was broken by 0.5 °C (0.9 °F), a staggeringly large margin.
- Both land and ocean individually also set new records for the warmest September.
- The extra warmth added since August occurred primarily in polar regions, especially Antarctica.
- Antarctic sea ice set a new record for lowest seasonal maximum extent.
- Record warmth in 2023 is primarily a combined effect of global warming and a strengthening El Niño, but natural variability and other factors have also contributed.
- Particularly warm conditions occurred in the North Atlantic, Eastern Equatorial Pacific, South America, Central America, Europe, parts of Africa and the Middle East, Japan, and Antarctica.
- 77 countries, mostly in Europe and the tropics, set new monthly average records for September.
- El Niño continues to strengthen and is expected to continue into next year.
- 2023 is now virtually certain to become a new record warm year (>99% chance).
- 2023 is very likely (90% chance) to average more than 1.5 °C above our 1850-1900 baseline.
Zeke Hausfather also should have added “shit” to the words he used to describe climate change, although I am not sure if Times’ guidelines would have approved. I just think “shit” is probably more apropos than staggering, unnerving, mind-boggling, gobsmackingly, and bananas.”