The courtyard of the Al Shifa Hospital in Gaza City was attacked Friday Night, November 10, 2023. Hamas blames Israel. Israel blames Hamas. Fortunately, only one person was reported killed, but many were reported injured.
BACKGROUND
Hamas launched an extremely brutal attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, resulting in the death of over 1,000 people, most of them Israelis, and the taking of over 200 hostages. Women, children, and the elderly were included in their carnage and were taken hostage.
After this attack Israel vowed to destroy Hamas’ military in Gaza, and to remove Hamas from governing Gaza. Israel launched an invasion of Gaza shortly after Hamas’ attack, destroying parts of Gaza City, killing thousands of people, and injuring many more. Israel’s attacks are on-going as of this diary.
Israel’s offensive is surrounding Gaza City and cutting it off from the sea on its western border. Israel is advancing along the coast down from the northwest and up from the southwest; meeting up near the area of the Al Shifa Hospital. Thus, it isn’t surprising that fighting is occurring around this hospital, especially if Israel is correct that a critical Hamas command center is located at this hospital. The Institute for the Study of War says that Israel has advanced to this hospital as of November 10.
WHAT HAPPENED and WHAT DO WE KNOW
On Friday Night, November 10, 2023, something was fired into the courtyard of the Al Shifa Hospital in Gaza City. Fortunately, only one person was reported killed, but many were reported injured.
A video from the Wall Street Journal opens with a view of the courtyard from a security camera. Then, we hear something being shot, followed by something whizzing by, and finally a thud. We don’t hear or see an explosion, nor is there a fire afterwards.
The only physical damage we see is the side of a car with a very large dent in it, some red lines on the car, and some collapsed canopies over the car, as shown in the pictures below. The red lines may be blood. If so, they could be the blood of the one person who was reported killed.
The most likely cause of the large dent in the car is from whatever whizzed by and made the thud.
There is a metal tube lying by the dented car, as shown in the pictures below. The tube is crumpled at one end. At the other end is a band and an open cylinder. The band has a reddish-brown color. Copper bands are reddish-brown in color and used around artillery and mortar shells. (They provide a seal with the gun barrel to prevent the explosive gases that launch the shell from escaping around the shell, and to reduce the friction between the shell and the gun barrel.)
It is very reasonable to believe that this metal tube hit the car and made the large dent. There likely was something on the front of the tube which hit the car first, and is now inside the car. This something could be a warhead.
There is also a long, thin object next to the tube. It is likely the front door molding on the driver’s side of the car, which detached when the car was hit and dented.
There is a long tube in the background, as shown below. There are no clear, close-up pictures of this tube like we have of the other tube, so it is hard to determine what it is.
The videos spend most of the time showing scenes of scared people, and injured people inside and outside of the hospital. Because we don’t know how many of these people were injured before the attack, after the attack, or both, we shouldn’t assume that they were all injured in this attack. Al Shifa is a hospital, and injured people go to hospitals.
WHO DID IT ?
Hamas says Israel shot a rocket into the courtyard.
Israel says that a Hamas rocket misfired and hit the courtyard.
Sound familiar? It is largely what these parties said caused the Al Ahli Hospital explosion and fire.
An Al Jazeera Presenter from London, Hosam Yahia, said on Twitter that “it is 100% certain” Israel fired a R9X Hellfire missile. This is a special missile that can be fired from an airplane, drone or other aircraft. Instead of an explosive or incendiary warhead, it uses cutting blades which deploy before hitting the target. The cutting blades are designed to kill the target while minimizing collateral damage. The target is usually one of high value, typically a leader of some type. The collateral damage to be avoided is anyone around this person. This missile was used by the US to kill Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of Al Qaeda.
What evidence do we have for who did it ?
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We have a short tube with a reddish-brown band that is crumpled at one end and open at the other end.
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We have a large, long tube away from the car, but without a good closeup view of it.
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We hear the noise of something shot, whizzing thru the air, and going thud.
What evidence don’t we have ? The lack of evidence can sometimes tell us more than the evidence we have.
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We don’t see anything on the videos that comes in and hits the courtyard.
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We don’t have a fire or explosion.
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We don’t see the remnants of any cutting blades, forward fins, tail fins, or other parts of a long missile around the car.
The reason we don’t see anything coming in is because we can’t. The video from the security camera is from the worst possible location. It is located somewhere above the damaged car and looking away from it, so this car can’t be seen. There should be at least three other video cameras that can see the car, as shown in the pictures below. (Please note that the Palestinian Health Ministry controls Al Shifa Hospital, and this ministry is controlled by Hamas.)
The car was most likely hit by a non-explosive warhead, either by design or a dud. (There are non-explosive warheads used for training.)
The warhead could have been propelled by a number of methods: a rocket or missile, possibly the debris from a failed rocket or missile, an RPG, an artillery shell, or a mortar.
Israel could have fired a rocket or missile. They have the capability of a precision strike, and a low failure rate. Hamas does not.
The rest of the methods would be by Hamas. The latter three would have a reddish-brown copper band around the shell.
The use of a R9X Hellfire missile is unlikely. The metal tube is too short for this missile. There are no remnants of the cutting blades around the car, nor of the missile fins. This missile doesn’t have a copper band around it.
(I have foregone a discussion of the pros and cons of the other methods, largely because it is a long, detailed writeup. Most of these details can be found in my prior diary on the Al Ahli Hospital explosion and fire. Please note that an RPG is more possible in the current attack than the previous one.)
The lack of a video from a security camera with a view of the damaged car is troubling. Without this view, we are unable to see the flight of whatever hit the car.
Both Israel and Hamas have motives for launching this attack on the hospital. For Israel, it could be a targeted killing of a Hamas commander or leader. For Hamas, it would be to make Israel look like the villain again, putting more pressure on Israel to agree to a ceasefire as its army closes in on Gaza City to destroy Hamas there.
DEVELOPING STORY
This attack is a developing story. We may learn more in the coming days, but we may not. Until then, this diary tries to present what is known, what is not, and what it might mean.