Republicans’ new schtick on their wildly unpopular abortion-ban push is that they just need to find the perfect pitch on it and voters will come around. Since their wipeout at the polls last week, Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel has repeatedly counseled Republicans to talk more about abortion, not less.
But in this case, more is definitely less when it comes to Republicans winning elections. Here are several data points to keep in mind as Republicans keep flapping their gums.
1. Voters continue to be deeply agitated about both the end of Roe v. Wade (which established a constitutional right to abortion) and Republican efforts to push bans through—driving liberal turnout.
Ohio exit polls showed that 59% of voters said they were either angry or dissatisfied with the high court's decision to overturn Roe. A 38% plurality of those voters were flat out angry, according to ABC News. That anger drove "record-high" turnout among liberals:
Liberals accounted for 34% of voters in Ohio exit poll results, up sharply from 20% in the 2022 midterms and 21% in the 2020 presidential election. That's a record-high turnout among liberals in Ohio exit polls dating back to 1984.
2. Far more voters are concerned with preserving abortion access than restricting it.
A deep dive on abortion earlier this year by Civiqs/Daily Kos found that twice as many voters were concerned about a federal law restricting access than about a law expanding access.
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Yes, I'm concerned abortion access will be restricted: 44%
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Yes, I'm concerned abortion access will be expanded: 22%
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No, I am not concerned: 27%
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Unsure: 7%
3. Evidence from 2022 tells us that not only were strong majorities of swing state voters pro-abortion rights, they also voted for Democrats in resounding numbers.
As I wrote last December:
Voters who believed abortion should be legal in all or most cases accounted for roughly 63% of the electorate in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and in each state they voted overwhelmingly for Democrats.
Over 80% of pro-choice voters backed Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan and gubernatorial nominee Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers won nearly three-quarters of abortion rights voters.
If 63% of voters who show up are pro-abortion rights, and Democrats win 80% of them, that leaves Republicans with a nearly insurmountable margin to make up the difference.
The trick to continuing to leverage abortion to win elections is to make sure voters remember that the issue is on the ballot. Fortunately for Democrats, Republicans are helping in that regard.
The harder part in the presidential contest if Donald Trump becomes the Republican nominee is to convince voters that he would sign a federal abortion ban if one hit his desk. That may seem simple, but focus groups suggest at least some pro-abortion-rights voters don't buy the idea that Trump personally believes in banning abortion—and the margins will definitely matter in 2024.
Campaign Action
The band is back together, and it is a glorious day as Markos and Kerry’s hot takes over the past year came true—again! Republicans continue to lose at the ballot box and we are here for it!
