Some encouraging news today out of Arizona:
As the 2024 Senate race in Arizona continues to take shape, recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) finds that a three-way race with Independent Sinema is anyone’s game.
This AZPOP, conducted from October 25–31, 2023, surveyed 1,010 registered voters in Arizona and had a margin of error of ± 3.1%.
Gallego v. Sinema v. Lake
In a hypothetical matchup between Gallego, Sinema, and Lake, Congressman Gallego takes a single-digit lead while Lake and Sinema hover around one-third support each. When looking at support by party, Gallego enjoys the highest party loyalty of the three candidates at +72 among Democrats. Lake loses out on 3 in 10 Republicans, but captures a meaningful share of Independents (21%). In this matchup, Sinema is up by 19 points among her own party with 49% of Independents throwing their support behind the current senator. Notably, Sinema’s base of support is nearly twice as Republican (23%) than it is Democratic (12%).
Speaking of Lake:
Kari Lake’s campaign to represent Arizona in the U.S. Senate has been underway for a month, but the former TV anchor has been busy campaigning everywhere but the Grand Canyon State.
In the first month since launching her campaign on Oct. 10, Lake has been spotted making the rounds at eight different events. Only two of those events were in Arizona.
On Oct. 18, Lake was at her first Arizona post-launch event in Tucson, appearing with state Sen. Wendy Rogers — one of the only politicians to make Lake seem comparatively sane.
Then again, it’s a pretty low bar.
As for Sinema:
Democrats and Republicans in Arizona agree — Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is far behind her opponents — and she has been for months.
On October 10, the day Republican Kari Lake announced her run for Senate, Public Policy Polling released a poll commissioned by Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego's campaign that showed him leading Lake 41% to 36%, with Sinema trailing at 15%. That same day, Lake countered with her own internal poll showing her leading Gallego 37% to 33%, with Sinema behind at 19%.
Three weeks later, national Republicans got into the mix, with National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chair Steve Daines unveiling a poll that showed Gallego leading 41% to 37%, with Sinema again in the teens at 17%. The Republican-led polls were rounded out last week by an internal survey from GOP pollster Cygnal first reported by the Messenger that was presented to Senate chiefs of staff which showed Lake narrowly edging Gallego 37% to 36%, with Sinema lagging at 15%.
Sinema did cross 20% in a poll this summer before Lake made her run official. An August Emerson survey polled the race between Gallego, Sinema, and little known GOP candidate Sheriff Mark Lamb, which had Gallego at 36%, Lamb at 29% and Sinema at 21%.
To be clear, Sinema has yet to say whether or not she will seek reelection. But recent polling has painted a bleak picture in terms of a path to a second term.
Let’s keep up the momentum to keep Arizona Blue and elect a real Democrat to the U.S. Senate. Click here to donate and get involved with Gallego’s campaign.
