Admin correction: this story has been edited to correct the statement regarding Dan Kildee’s (MI-08) health and decision not to seek re-election. As Kildee said, “[t]hankfully, earlier this year I had successful surgery and I’m cancer-free. But after spending time with my wife, children and grandchildren and contemplating our future, the time has come for me to step back from public office. Running for office, ultimately, is a personal decision first. And this was not an easy decision to make. But I know it’s the right one for me and for my family.”
Before the 2022 midterm elections, I wrote a series called the Majority Savers. The series was meant to highlight important races in both the House and the Senate that could be the difference between having a majority and having the GOP in power to constantly block the Biden/Harris agenda.
Good News: We ADDED a seat to our Senate majority, going from a 50-50 Senate with MVP Harris as a tie breaker to a 51-49 majority!
Bad News: We lost the House of Representatives, as the GOP gained 9 seats. That hurts, but we are within striking distance of taking back our majority there.
Better News: The House of Representatives is very winnable in 2024. There are plenty of targets, and we only need to flip a net of 5 seats to make it a reality!
The Save the Majority series for the 2024 election cycle will have two components
- Save Our Senate, which is primarily defending the slim majority we have in the Senate. If you read this diary, you will see why the Senate map is so brutal.
- Flip Our House, which is a series that highlights important House seats that we need to win to take back the House, along with a few incumbents that we still need to defend.
Today is all about Flip Our House, which is the easier of the two tasks in my opinion. I hope this is well received, because there is also a presidential race in 2024, and those tend to suck all of the oxygen out of the room, leaving down ballot races with less attention.
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If you like this article, make sure to follow the Save the Majority group and the #SaveTheMajority hashtag by clicking the links. Once 2024 rolls around, I plan on writing articles on Sundays.
Without further ado, let’s look at the 2024 House landscape!
Be warned, this is a VERY LONG ARTICLE!
First Category: #TheBeatable18
Yes, this is from the Lincoln Project. Don’t @ me about it as this is a decent hashtag for this category.
It is very difficult to knock off incumbent members of the House without a blue wave at our backs. However, in order to Flip Our House, we need to start somewhere. To qualify under this group, you have to be an incumbent in a district that voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and yet have a GOP member of Congress. There are 18 of those, hence #TheBeatable18.
- AZ-01: David Schweikert — This incumbent is a walking ethical violation. He almost lost in 2022 and will be a top target in 2024. We have many intriguing candidates already, and a fierce primary will have to settle who actually gets to face him.
- AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani — This freshman incumbent did win, but by narrower than I expected. Either he will become quickly entrenched, asked to run statewide, or lose in 2024. Our 2022 nominee, who held him to the close result, is running again.
- CA-13: John Duarte — This freshman incumbent barely won his race, and the turnout issues that plague the Central Valley won't exist in 2024. Our 2022 nominee is back for round two, and he gets a presidential electorate this time around.
- CA-22: David Valadao — TBH, I’m not feeling good about knocking him off in a race. He’s proven to be the political equivalent of Teflon. Our 2022 nominee is back, but he is not the only one looking to defeat the incumbent. This race may decide the House.
- CA-27: Mike Garcia — Another one that seems to be impervious to losing right now, though we made an unforced error and ran the same losing candidate three times. We have one particularly strong candidate here.
- CA-40: Young Kim — She seems to be fairly secure already, as she pasted the opposition in 2022. We might see her in Congress until the next blue wave election. So far, two candidates have filed against Kim.
- CA-45: Michelle Steel — She didn’t win by much in 2022 compared to how much effort we put in. She could still be very vulnerable to a robust challenger. But first, we need to settle a four way fight to get into the Top 2 primary.
- NE-02: Don Bacon — Biden contesting this district in 2024 might determine how vulnerable Bacon is. He pretends to be a moderate well. Our 2022 nominee has stepped up again to run against him.
- NJ-07: Thomas Kean, Jr. — Another faux moderate, this time with a famous last name in the state. We need to crush him now or he will possibly run for governor in 2025 in New Jersey. So far, we have two candidates to choose from.
- NY-01: Nick LaLota — Biden may have won this district, but 2022-23 results say that Long Island is off the table for now. I am hoping results on Long Island will be different in 2024. Two contenders have thrown their hats in the ring.
- NY-03: OPEN (“George Santos” retiring) — “Santos” is gone, retiring after a bad ethics report. He could still be expelled or resign. That makes this district more difficult to flip... Two decent candidates have already filed for this seat, including a former member of Congress.
- NY-04: Anthony D’Esposito — Another incumbent that should be easy pickings. He holds the district that by margin voted for Biden the most while still being held by a Republican. We have two excellent candidates here, so the primary will have to settle things first.
- NY-17: Mike Lawler — Lawler is another New York freshman that used the terrible results from 2022 to eke into power. Just wait until he faces a presidential electorate… we have the sister of a popular governor and a former member of Congress to pick from.
- NY-19: Marc Molinaro — Molinaro is another faux moderate, and he will pretend to be such for his re-election campaign. He might be one of the more difficult to dislodge from his seat. Our 2022 nominee is running again, but he may not be the only credible candidate this time.
- NY-22: Brandon Williams — Peak MAGA freshman member of Congress. Syracuse tends to pick moderates from the GOP. The right candidate should win us this district. We have a state senator who is used to winning close elections amongst other contenders.
- OR-05: Lori Chavez-DeRemer — Another accidental freshman. Next time, we need to NOT primary a member of Congress from a vulnerable district. We have three strong candidates for this seat already.
- PA-01: Brian Fitzpatrick — We haven’t come close to beating him, and I don’t think 2024 will be our year either. We will have to wait until he retires to have a chance at this seat. Our 2022 nominee, who got blown out, may be the best we can do for this seat.
- VA-02: Jen Kiggans — Probably the result I was most upset with in 2022 (Rep. Luria losing after good work on the 1/6 Committee). I think a lot depends upon who faces her in 2024. We landed a top recruit for this race, and hopefully that will be enough.
Now, we aren’t going to win all of these districts. Some of these incumbents have staying power and are well entrenched in their seats. Others know how to play the “moderate” card very effectively in spite of falling in line with the MAGA crazy most of the time. However, there are enough freshmen in the above group that can be beaten more easily.
Let's take back the House by targeting the 6 most vulnerable CURRENT Democrats and the 18 districts that Biden won in 2020 that have R reps! That brings us to the 24 in 24 Fund! Please donate and then share a link to this site on your social media! #Beatable18
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Second Category: #SaveTheMajority
One of the more surprising members of our caucus is Rep. Mary Peltola.
There are still incumbents from my previous Majority Savers series that will need extra attention no matter the political environment. We will need to defend these seats in order to Flip Our House. To qualify under this group, you need to be an incumbent that won in a district Donald Trump won or Joe Biden narrowly carried in 2020, or barely won re-election. There are 23 members in this group.
- AK-AL: Mary Peltola — She fits the state exceptionally well and seems to be well liked. My note of caution is that she will face someone serious, and not Sarah Palin again.
- CA-47: OPEN (Katie Porter running for Senate) — We almost lost this seat in 2022, and we have a damaged frontrunner this time around. The opposition from 2022 is back too.
- CO-08: Yadira Caraveo — I feel more confident in this race after Caraveo won in 2022. I think as long as Biden doesn’t face voter attrition in Colorado, she should win again.
- CT-05: Jahana Hayes — Hayes almost losing was perplexing to me. Hopefully she learned how to fight for her political life, because I doubt the GOP will let her be after nearly winning.
- IL-17: Eric Sorenson — Illinois was a masterful gerrymander, but Sorenson still only barely won in 2022. This district is trending the wrong way. He may not lose in 2024, but keep a watch out.
- IN-01: Frank J. Mrvan — Another district trending the wrong way. Mrvan is also allergic to fundraising, and is very low key. I could see him losing in a six year itch election.
- ME-02: Jared Golden — He fits the district exceptionally well and is the most conservative Democratic incumbent left to boot. I hope he challenges Collins in 2026.
- MI-07: OPEN (Elissa Slotkin running for Senate) — Slotkin is running for the open Senate seat, which complicates things here. We still have a strong bench for this seat.
- MI-08: OPEN (Dan Kildee retiring) — Kildee, now cancer-free, has decided to retire. This seat now is in danger of flipping.
- MN-02: Angie Craig — With the Twin Cities continuing to move leftwards, I think she will be okay this time. She is on this list right now just in case the worst happens.
- NM-02: Gabe Vasquez — He barely eked into Congress in 2022, and he will face a stiff test once again in 2024. Good litmus test to see how well Latino voters stay in our coalition.
- NV-03: Susie Lee — She holds a marginal Nevada seat, which is in a state trending the wrong way. If the GOP continues to run nutters against her, it may not matter.
- NY-18: Pat Ryan — He won the special election for us, and then barely won the general election after that. He isn’t in the clear by any means yet.
- NC-01: Don Davis — After the state legislature redrew the map, he was given a swing seat rapidly trending to the right. He’s going to need all the help he can get!
- OH-01: Greg Landsman — Cincinnati is slowly trending left, but it isn’t safe by any means. Landsman will have to work in 2024 to keep this district in Democratic hands.
- OH-09: Marcy Kaptur — She might luck out and have the same district, but she is more likely to face a robust challenger this time around. She has 42 years of experience on her side.
- OH-13: Emilia Sykes — Sykes eked out a win on marginal turf in 2022. Even with the same district intact, she will have a dogfight on her hands. Don’t discount her political chops though.
- OR-06: Andrea Salinas — She barely won her seat as Democratic candidates split the field in Oregon at the top of the ticket. She really needs a good election in 2024 to banish any doubts.
- PA-07: Susan Wild — Wild has hung around for a couple of close elections now, and I suspect that she will be in another close election when 2024 rolls around.
- PA-08 Matt Cartwright — Ditto for Cartwright, as the district he represents trends more to the right. He’s been a lucky duck to face subpar candidates thus far.
- PA-17: Chris Deluzio — Another freshman on marginal turf near Pittsburgh. He probably will win in 2024, but he will have to fight to defend this seat no matter what the environment.
- VA-07: OPEN (Abigail Spanberger running for governor) — This race was a recent retirement, so the race is still developing. 2023 results point to a close race, but a slight Democratic lean.
- WA-03: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez — I am hoping she turns into another Peltola or Golden and fits the district well. If any incumbent loses, I’d suspect it is her just based on district lean alone.
We aren’t going to necessarily hold all of these districts. It is a combination of freshmen and experienced campaigners in marginal seats. In a good environment, we should have only a couple of these reverting to GOP control. In a mixed environment, it will be about equal. If things go bad, this list will be the casualty report for the 2024 House elections.
Here is the Save the Majority 2024 Fund on ActBlue! There are plenty of Democratic members of the House that are still vulnerable to being defeated. These 23 members need a boost! Please donate and then share a link to this site on your social media! #SaveTheMajority
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Third Category: #TheMAGADozen
The incumbents here either are MAGA or are enablers of these two cretins.
These incumbents are ones that have enabled the MAGA in the House or are peak MAGA themselves. These are districts that mostly narrowly went for Trump or had an incumbent with an especially close race last time around. If we need to hunt for upsets to Flip Our House, this is the list we need to work off of.
- CA-03: Kevin Kiley — Trump narrowly won his district in 2020, but Kiley did better in 2022. If we find the right candidate, I know we can beat this freshman incumbent. Looks like we landed a strong challenger for this district!
- CA-41: Ken Calvert — Calvert isn’t used to running in a swing seat. He barely fended off a challenge in 2022. He will only grow more vulnerable as time goes by. In good news, our 2022 contender is trying again in 2024 — a presidential year.
- CO-03: Lauren Boebert — this lunatic needs no introduction. Through her lunacy, she was involved in the closest House race in 2022. Let’s hope that we can knock her off in 2024. Quite a few candidates are trying in 2024, but our frontrunner is the same as in 2022.
- IA-01: Mariannette Miller-Meeks — Although Trump barely won her district in 2020, the state of Iowa is trending the wrong way and she had an easy time of it in 2022. Our 2022 nominee is back, but it remains to be seen if she can reverse the trends here.
- IA-03: Zach Nunn — I am actually more confident in this race than some of #TheBeatable18. This part of Iowa is trending our way and Nunn is a freshman incumbent. We have one challenger here with some institutional backing who just announced a run.
- MI-10: John James — He finally made it to Congress, although only through a very narrow victory over an opposition that barely fundraised at all. A serious candidate could beat him. Our 2022 nominee is back, along with other challengers. James has stockpiled a LOT of cash though.
- MT-01: Ryan Zinke — Another walking ethical violation factory. If Montana wasn’t so red, he wouldn’t be in Congress. He still had to sweat his election in 2022! Our 2022 nominee is back and that is excellent news.
- PA-10: Scott Perry — Another MAGA insurrectionist who had an opponent who fizzled out in 2022. Finding a credible opponent is the first task in getting him out of the House. Many candidates have stepped up to challenge Perry, including a local news anchor.
- SC-01: Nancy Mace — The courts may make this district bluer, and she didn’t have a great re-election result to begin with. Another faux moderate hypocrite making her home in the GOP. We have an intriguing candidate trying to unseat her, with roots coming from a state hero.
- TX-15: Monica De la Cruz — Trump barely won her district, and we nominated a progressive (huge no-no here) last time. The right candidate can still win back this district. Yet the candidate from 2022 is trying again, and she might scare away other contenders.
- WI-03: Derrick Van Orden — Another MAGA insurrectionist piece of garbage. He won by less than I thought he would against a challenger who was abandoned too early by the DCCC. The second place finisher from the 2022 primary seems to be our frontrunner, but is not alone.
- TBD: There’s always a race or three that unexpectedly become competitive as the year goes by. Obviously, I am hoping more GOP seats become competitive as opposed to Democratic seats. This is a placeholder.
These incumbents are much more likely to win their seats than lose them, but a lot can change in two years, especially with the utter shit show the House of Representatives will likely be for the foreseeable future. This list may grow or shrink with time, and that goes for the other lists too.
Here is the Defeat the MAGA Dozen Fund on ActBlue! These 12 incumbent members of the GOP are MAGA Republicans residing in swing districts. The challengers are all strong and can win in these tougher districts. Please donate and then share a link to this site on your social media! #MAGADozen
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Fourth Category: TBD Due to the Courts
Paging Marc Elias for this section!
Here’s the lay of the land based off of lawsuits.
We will gain a seat (AL-02) in Alabama, thanks to Allen v. Milligan saving the VRA. We also have a strong chance of gaining a TBD seat in Louisiana due to a similar Supreme Court case — though the Louisiana legislature may try to delay as long as possible. We could gain a TBD seat in Florida due to a state court ruling, but the legislature may try to run out the clock. We could gain a TBD seat in Georgia due to a federal court ruling, but it remains to be seen. Other pending federal cases include Florida, South Carolina, and Texas.
Also up in the air are maps in New York and Wisconsin, both of which may be changed by liberal leaning state courts. Also, keep an eye on Utah as the State Supreme Court may make a Salt Lake City based seat we will win.
Thankfully, the Supreme Court, in a 6-3 decision, decided against Moore v. Harper. The “independent state legislature” theory had no merit. This cracker jack box theory claimed that only state legislatures can decide election rules and voting rights within each state. Luckily, we dodged that bullet.
In more good news, even the hyper-partisan Ohio Supreme Court shot down the GOP attempt to redraw the lines. The (illegal but better than nothing) 2022 map is still the one being used for 2024. That is when an independent redistricting commission amendment is on the ballot. If it is passed, the maps in Ohio will be much fairer.
In bad news, the map in North Carolina only was as favorable as it was thanks to the state Supreme Court. In 2022, the GOP flipped the court to their control, meaning the state legislature has re-redistricted the state with a map much more favorable to the Republican Party. We will lose 3 incumbents!
These three incumbents in North Carolina will all be drawn into staunchly GOP districts, for 3 Republican gains.
- NC-06: Kathy Manning — The original map nuked her district before the State Supreme Court restored it. She will not have a political home in 2024.
- NC-13: Wiley Nickel — Nickel is another one who lucked out with the court map. He will not have a district to run in once 2024 comes around. Nickel has sued seeking to return the old map.
- NC-14: Jeff Jackson — Jackson didn’t originally have a district to run in with the original gerrymandered map. The GOP won’t keep his district out of the kindness of their hearts. Jackson is now running for NC Attorney General.
This incumbent will lose his seat in Alabama, for a Democratic gain.
- AL-02: Barry Moore — His district has been jettisoned for the new VRA compliant district. He has decided to run against fellow Rep. Jerry Carl in Alabama’s 1st district.
This incumbent in Louisiana could lose her seat, for a Democratic gain.
- LA-05: Julia Letlow — She is likely the one to lose her seat, but there have been maps drawn that satisfy the criteria in which she could plausibly win the new district.
An incumbent in Florida could lose their seat, for a Democratic gain.
- FL-04: Aaron Bean — He is a freshman, so he has little clout. He is likely the representative to be sacrificed, but member v. member primaries are always weird.
- FL-05: John Rutherford — He is likely to survive any primary matchup if his seat is drawn away, but you never know...
An incumbent in Georgia could lose his seat, for a Democratic gain.
- GA-06: Rich McCormick — If Georgia has to keep the current 7th district AND draw another Democratic seat, Rep. Rich McCormick is the one most likely to lose out. That is far from guaranteed, however. Georgia could try to comply with the court order and eliminate the 7th district.
Conclusion
The control of the House of Representatives is on a knife’s edge next year. Both parties likely believe that they can control the chair of the Speaker for the next session of Congress. The political landscape, yet to be determined for 2024, will have a LOT to do with which party controls the House of Representatives.
The current antics of the GOP while in control of the House shows us that even giving them half of the legislative branch isn’t a smart idea. The amount of obstruction and harebrained schemes to pass terrible bills has only escalated as time goes by.
We need to win back the House and keep the Senate, so that sane governance can return to Washington, DC. These races listed are the key to building a solid Democratic majority - so long as we put in the leg work and help the eventual winners of primary elections out.
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