I recommend reading Francis Farrell op-ed in today’s Kyiv Independent. It’s a sobering take on Ukraine’s challenges.
I am a daily “Ukraine Updates” reader and big supporter (and optimist) about Ukraine. Slava Ukraine! But, I trust Francis Farrell and the Kyiv Independent. They are hard headed but with their hearts in the right place.
I recommend reading the whole piece but wanted to, in particular, call out Farrell’s point 3 below. I think it’s dead on.
3. While it remains taboo to admit, it’s now nearly impossible to deny that the West, in particular Washington, does not want a complete Ukrainian victory.
You only have to look at months and months of public statements, which are best summed up by the tired commitment to support Ukraine for “as long as it takes,” echoed from Washington to Paris to Berlin. On U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s Nov. 20 visit to Ukraine, the wording “here for the long haul” was chosen.
As long as it takes for what?
There’s a reason Western officials don’t talk about restoring Ukrainian sovereign territory to its 1991 borders. The idea of Ukraine truly defeating Russia and threatening to return all occupied territories, including Crimea, is at the core of the West’s fear of escalation and possible nuclear use by Russia.
This fear is not completely unfounded. Yes, every Ukrainian victory has been a hit to Putin’s ego, and yes, every new Western system delivered to Ukraine makes him seethe a little inside. However, these “red lines” are nothing compared to the prospect of him losing everything: the war, Crimea, and his legitimacy as an empire-building tsar. Only at that point does the nuclear threat become real, but it is Ukraine that would be in danger, and Ukraine that is ready to take that risk.