Election night 2023

by Daily Kos Elections for Daily Kos Liveblogs

Daily Kos Staff Emeritus

Tuesday, Nov. 07, 2023 Tuesday, Nov. 07, 2023 at 2:58:06pm PST

WHITING, IN - MAY 03: Jim Facklam votes at the Whiting Fire Department on May 3, 2016 in Whiting, Indiana. Indiana residents are voting today to decide Republican and Democrat presidential nominees. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

It’s election night 2023! Important races are on the ballot across the country, and we’re liveblogging all the top contests below.

Results • Daily Kos Elections on X • Hour-by-hour Race Previews

Live Trackers: All Key Races (aka the "Big Board") | VA Legislature

Our live coverage continues here.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Nov 8, 2023 · 1:05:38 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

Polls have now closed as of a few minutes ago (8:00 PM ET) in several states key to our discussion tonight: particularly, Pennsylvania and Mississippi.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Nov 8, 2023 · 1:04:12 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

OHIO: We’ve also hit the reporting threshold in Ohio, with about one-fifth of the expected vote in. And remember what we said about blue mirages. While supporters are cautiously optimistic about the outcome of the abortion rights initiative tonight, it seems highly unlikely it is going to be a 65-35 victory, as the results presently stand! That said, the initiative is on track to claim a double-digit victory, which would be huge news in a state that most pundits view as a “lean Republican” state these days.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Nov 8, 2023 · 1:01:24 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

KY-Gov: We have reached the halfway point in the Bluegrass State, and incumbent Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear still holds a solid lead over Daniel Cameron: 53-47. Only a fraction of blue Jefferson County (Louisville) has reported, to boot. Again, far too early for any definitive declarations, but Team Beshear has to be pleased with where they are right now.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Nov 8, 2023 · 12:50:48 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

MANCHESTER (NH) MAYOR: The Republicans will be able to hang their hats on one big win tonight: they have claimed the mayor’s office in Manchester (Cavanaugh is the Democrat, Ruais the Republican)

Source close to the @JayRuais campaign says Cavanaugh has called to congratulate Ruais. #NHPolitics #WMUR
— Adam Sexton (@AdamSextonWMUR) November 8, 2023

UPDATE: Wednesday, Nov 8, 2023 · 12:42:31 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

KY-Gov: The margin is gradually tightening in terms of percentage (Democrat Andy Beshear now leads 54.7-45.3), but not really in terms of votes, which, of course, is what ultimately matters. What’s more: Andy Beshear has beaten his 2019 margins in all but one of the eight counties that have reached more than 95% of their expected totals. Far from over, but you’d rather be the Democrats than the Republicans on this one.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Nov 8, 2023 · 12:33:07 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

OHIO: Polls have now closed in the Buckeye State. As alluded to earlier, turnout in the state, where the abortion rights initiative is on center stage, appears to have been absolutely massive.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Nov 8, 2023 · 12:31:23 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

KY-Gov: With about a third of the vote tallied, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear continues to lead Republican Daniel Cameron by a 57-43 margin. Again, a word of caution—this will absolutely tighten as more day-of voting is tallied and as heavily Republican Western Kentucky chimes in. But of the counties that have neared their totals tonight, Beshear is running 5-8 points ahead of his 2019 margins. So, the early indications are positive for the incumbent.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Nov 8, 2023 · 12:16:01 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

KY-Gov: We have our first county nearing completion (out of 120...again, we stress patience). Bell County in the southeast corner of the state went for Matt Bevin four years ago by 25 points. Tonight, his fellow Republican, Daniel Cameron, looks like he will take it by around 17 points.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Nov 8, 2023 · 12:11:49 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

Also, worth noting: the rest of Kentucky closed in the past few minutes. Western Kentucky was the place Beshear generally did the worst last year, so expect some tightening as those numbers report. We also have polls closing in New Hampshire, where we have our eyes on the mayoral election in Manchester.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Nov 8, 2023 · 12:09:52 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

Virginia: A reminder that Virginia (bless them) counts pretty quickly, so we should have results in the highly-pitched battle for control of the Virginia legislature within the hour.

UPDATE: Tuesday, Nov 7, 2023 · 11:58:29 PM +00:00 · David Nir

KY-Gov: We’ve just crossed 10% of expected votes tallied, per the AP, which is the threshold we traditionally wait for before liveblogging any results. But all our prior warnings about mirages still hold! Dem Andy Beshear leads Republican Daniel Cameron by an outsized 60-40 margin with 12% counted. That will get tighter!

UPDATE: Tuesday, Nov 7, 2023 · 11:38:19 PM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

OHIO: Uh, this is a holy crap number if this is accurate (and this is the CBS News decision desk saying it, so they’re not wishcasting):

@CBSNews Data Desk update: estimating total votes in Ohio to be 3.8-3.9M — nearly 2022 Senate race turnout https://t.co/jbgJGl453w
— Kabir @kabirkhanna.bsky.social (@kabir_here) November 7, 2023

UPDATE: Tuesday, Nov 7, 2023 · 11:22:25 PM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

KY-Gov: With the first smattering of returns, we have an object lesson in what David Nir was just talking about in our open tonight. Four counties are reporting, with Republican Daniel Cameron leading by 16 points. BUT...those four counties are extremely red, so that margin would be phenomenal news for Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear, since these are counties he should be losing by thirty points or more.

EXCEPT...those are almost certainly early/mail votes that favor the Democrats. So, hopefully, you see the dilemma. We will start jumping in with commentary on this race when entire counties are nearing full completion, because then and only then can we draw decent conclusions.

UPDATE: Tuesday, Nov 7, 2023 · 11:12:41 PM +00:00 · David Nir

Welcome to our election night liveblog! It’ll be a while yet before we have meaningful results, so just a reminder while we wait: Beware the mirage.

If you’ve followed election returns in recent years, you know that oftentimes, results can start off leaning toward Republicans only to shift toward Democrats later in the night, or vice-versa. This is often called a “red mirage” or a “blue mirage.” And there are two major reasons for the phenomenon.

One is geographic: If rural counties are the first to report, then the initial results will look redder than the final results, in all likelihood. The reverse is true if urban counties are the first to report.

More recently, we’ve seen a stark divide in which method of voting each side prefers. Democrats have embraced mail voting and tend to like early voting; Republicans greatly favor in-person voting on Election Day. So if advance votes (that is, mail/early votes) get reported first, you’ll likely have a blue mirage; if in-person Election Day votes are reported first, a red mirage.

One added difficulty is that we can’t always tell which type of votes have been tallied first. In some places, the advance votes are counted first; in others, they are counted later (especially when it comes to mail ballots, which in some states can arrive after Election Day if they are postmarked in time). So avoid any prognostication based on early results, because things can and very likely will change later—very possibly a lot!