FL State House: Both parties chose their nominees Tuesday for the Jan. 16 special election for a swingy GOP-held seat in the Florida House that Democrats are working to flip.
Democratic primary voters picked businessman Tom Keen 36-33 over Rishi Bagga, who narrowly beat him last year before losing to GOP incumbent Fred Hawkins. Republicans, meanwhile, opted for Osceola County School Board member Erika Booth, who beat nonprofit consultant Scotty Moore 49-34. (Moore was the GOP's 2022 nominee against Democratic Rep. Darren Soto.)
Joe Biden carried the 35th District 52-47 in 2020, though Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis won the same district by an imposing 56-43 spread last year, according to one analysis. Democrats, however, are hoping that victory in this suburban Orlando district would give them another chance to show they're on the rebound heading into next year's elections.
Hawkins decisively won his second term last year by beating Bagga 55-45, but he wasn't content to serve much longer in the 120-member lower chamber. DeSantis, a close ally, tapped Hawkins to serve as president of South Florida State College in June, even though, as many reports noted, Hawkins had no background in higher education.
(The relationship between the two, incidentally, seems to have experienced quite a turnaround from just a few years ago, when DeSantis suspended Hawkins from his post on the Osceola County Commission after he tried to enter a private meeting by pretending to be a sheriff and flashing an honorary "special deputy" badge.")
DeSantis tarried in scheduling a special election to fill Hawkins' seat, acting only after the ACLU sued him for failing to call a different special election in a dark-red district in the Miami area. Republicans currently hold an 83-35 supermajority in the House with only those two seats vacant, but both sides will contest the Keen-Booth showdown, though it won't threaten the GOP's iron grip on the gerrymandered legislature.
Democrats, in particular, are eager to turn the page on a dispiriting decade in this longtime swing state, an era that hit a nadir last year as DeSantis and Republican Sen. Marco Rubio both pulled off landslide victories. But Democrats finally enjoyed some long-awaited good news in May when Donna Deegan pulled off a 52-48 upset in the race for mayor of Jacksonville, a city that DeSantis had carried 55-44 just six months earlier. If Keen can manage a similar swing, Florida Democrats would be able to argue that Deegan's win was no fluke.
National Democrats looking to hold the White House and the Senate will also be keeping an eye on this special as they mull whether to invest massive sums in Florida or send those resources elsewhere.
One person who may be watching particularly closely is former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who is the Democratic frontrunner to take on GOP Sen. Rick Scott. Mucarsel-Powell outraised Scott during her opening fundraising quarter but ended September with $1 million banked versus $3 million for her wealthy opponent. A win for Keen could help her convince donors and outside groups that Democrats are once again a rising force in the state.