57% of youth, ages 18-34, say they’re “extremely likely” to vote in 2024, and another 15% say they’re “fairly likely” to cast a ballot in the election.
** Note: Think about that number for just a minute. That’s 22% points above the 2022 YV turnout results (23% in ‘22), and 7 points above YV turn-out in 2020. If we add in just half of the 15% “Fairly likely to Vote”, or 7.5%, that would be a total of 64.5% Youth Vote turnout in the 2024 election.
For a quick review of Youth Voter turnout by election year, here is a graph of recent elections.:
2016 39% YV Turnout Presidential Election Year
2018 28% YV Turnout
2020 50% YVTurnout Presidential Election Year
2022 23% YVTurnout
2024 64.5% ? YV Turnout Presidential Election Year
(Projected Turnout of Youth Voters 18-33)
** Needless to say, if the youth voters turn out in such numbers in 2024, the results will be sharply swayed to Dem candidates and issues. Possible impacts include: Swing State House & Senate seats- and control of the House and the Senate; Governorships; State Legislatures; the Presidential election; And the future of US democracy itself. That’s just for starters, of course.( I’m trying to sit still writing this, but wow, this is potentially really big news.)
Bonus points- if we see very high youth turnout (which I think is very likely), the Rep party is going to have a much tougher time navigating the US waters for a long time!!
Almost every bill in Congress will have a new lease on life, and far better odds of passing with a unified Congress. Aid for Ukraine, abortion rights, gun safety/control, climate change, Building Back Better, and Annual Budgets will be a Lot less contentious. Not automatic, not guaranteed, but a lot more feasible!!
** +21 for Democratic Candidate
Among youth who are extremely likely to vote: 51% back the Democratic candidate, 30% the Republican, 16% undecided.
Key Issues: Economy, Climate, Guns
Young people’s top issues are inflation/cost of living, jobs that pay a living wage, gun violence, and climate change.
** Climate Linked to Voting
Youth who selected climate as a top issue were 20 points more likely than youth who did not choose climate to say they’ll vote in 2024, and 37 points more likely to prefer a Democrat for President.
** 19% Have Heard from Campaigns
Less than 1 in 5 young people have heard about politics and issues this year from political parties or campaigns (19%) or from community organizations (14%).
Half of Youth Struggling Mentally
Close to half of young people say they’re struggling with mental health issues like loneliness or lack of confidence, and those who do are less likely to vote.
**OK, That’s all for today. But I’m welcoming all comments on the poll results- in line with the usual DK guidlines. You will probably help frame my upcoming, and more complete, review of this recent CIRCLE poll.
About the Survey
The CIRCLE Pre-2024 Election Youth Survey was developed by CIRCLE at Tufts University, and the polling firm Ipsos collected the data from their nationally representative panel of respondents between October 25 and November 2, 2023. The study surveyed a total of 2,017 self-reported U.S. citizens ages 18 to 34 in the United States; unless otherwise mentioned, data are for all 18- to 34-year-olds in our sample. When data is reported by educational experience (college/no college) the sample used is youth ages 21-34 in order to account for young people who may pursue higher education later in life.