North Carolina: Below is our look at the major contests to watch next year in North Carolina, though you'll find our preview of the state's crucial Supreme Court race at the top of this Digest.
The state Supreme Court also casts a shadow over this cycle's elections: After Republicans retook control of the court last year, the new conservative majority reversed a previous ruling that forbade partisan gerrymandering. That in turn allowed Republican lawmakers to pass extremely one-sided maps both for Congress and the state legislature, prompting multiple Democrats not to seek reelection.
Note that the Tarheel State allows for primary runoffs on May 14, but only if no candidate wins more than 30% of the vote on March 5. The runner-up must also formally request a runoff.
• NC-Gov: Five Democrats and three Republicans are competing for the seat held by termed-out Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. Attorney General Josh Stein has been the Democrats' frontrunner since launching his effort in January, while former state Supreme Court Justice Mike Morgan entered the primary in September.
However, a new survey from Public Policy Polling, which tells us it has no client, finds Stein far ahead with 56%, while Morgan's 5% barely puts him ahead of three little-known contenders. Cooper and other influential Democrats are backing the attorney general, while Morgan hasn't secured any major endorsements yet.
The GOP contest pits Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson against state Treasurer Dale Folwell and wealthy businessman Bill Graham. A fourth candidate, former state Sen. Andy Wells, did not file ahead of Friday's deadline.
Every poll has shown Robinson, who has Donald Trump's endorsement, far ahead of his primary rivals. However, Robinson's intraparty critics have fretted that his past screeds—which run the gamut from antisemitic and Islamophobic to misogynistic, homophobic, and transphobic—as well as his ardent opposition to reproductive rights could cost them next year's general election. Sen. Thom Tillis this month became the first major Republican to endorse Graham, who began airing ads in October.
• NC-01: GOP map-makers targeted freshman Democratic Rep. Don Davis by lowering Joe Biden's margin of victory here from 53-46 to just 50-49, and two Republicans are running to face him in this inland northeastern North Carolina seat.
The more familiar name belongs to 2022 nominee Sandy Smith, who lost to Davis 52-48 last year. House Republicans never wanted her to be their nominee in the first place: The Congressional Leadership Fund spent $600,000 in the primary in an unsuccessful attempt to stop Smith, who was accused of physical abuse by her daughter and not one but two ex-husbands. The other contender is Army veteran Laurie Buckhout, who said she'd already self-funded $1 million when she entered the race in October.
• NC-06: Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning said earlier this month she wouldn't seek a third term after Republicans transformed her constituency from one that would have voted 56-43 for Joe Biden in 2020 into one that would have gone 58-41 for Donald Trump. Six Republicans are competing to replace her in this central Piedmont region district, though Trump put his thumb on the scales on Wednesday by endorsing lobbyist Addison McDowell.
McDowell faces several Republicans who have more experience running for office in this area. The most prominent contender, at least until Trump's intervention, was former Rep. Mark Walker, who represented previous versions of the 6th from 2015 through 2021. Walker, though, took a distant third place in last year's Senate primary.
Another recognizable name is Bo Hines, who has spent the last few years searching for a seat to run for somewhere in the state. Hines tested out four different districts before going on to lose the 2022 general election to Democrat Wiley Nickel 52-48 in the old 13th. Outgoing High Point Mayor Jay Wagner is also in, as are two lesser-known Republicans who waged low-profile bids against Manning last cycle.
• NC-08: Far-right Rep. Dan Bishop is leaving Congress to run for attorney general, and six fellow Republicans are campaigning to succeed him. This constituency, which is based in the eastern Charlotte suburbs and rural areas east of Charlotte, favored Donald Trump 58-41.
There's no obvious frontrunner yet, though there is one candidate that many Republicans wish they could just forget: pastor Mark Harris, whose 2018 House campaign was responsible for one the most ignominious election fraud scandals in recent memory. The only sitting elected official in the race is state Rep. John Bradford, who is capable of spending millions. Former Union County Commissioner Allan Baucom is also running, and he self-funded almost all the $251,000 his campaign had available at the end of September.
Another name to watch belongs to Chris Maples, who previously worked as Bishop's district director. Rounding out the field are Don Brown, who is an author and retired Navy JAG officer, and former National Association of Realtors official Leigh Brown, who badly lost the 2019 GOP primary to Bishop in the special election that was called after evidence of fraud prompted officials to declare Harris' seat vacant.
• NC-10: GOP Rep. Patrick McHenry unexpectedly announced his retirement in early December, and five Republicans are hoping to take his seat. Donald Trump won the 10th District, which includes the Winston-Salem and western Piedmont region, 57-41.
The one elected official in the running is state Rep. Grey Mills. However, he faces well-funded opposition from firearms manufacturer Pat Harrigan, who was the GOP nominee in the old 14th District last year. Harrigan, who originally was running for the revamped 14th before McHenry retired, finished September with $745,000 banked thanks mostly to self-funding. Three other Republicans are on the ballot, but they haven't attracted much attention yet.
• NC-11: Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards faces notable Democratic opposition from state Rep. Caleb Rudow, but the challenger has an uphill battle here. This western North Carolina constituency backed Donald Trump 55-44; Edwards also hasn't attracted anything like the national attention that stuck to his notorious predecessor, Madison Cawthorn.
• NC-13: A grand total of 14 Republicans are running to replace Democratic Rep. Wiley Nickel, who said he would not seek a second term because the GOP gerrymandered his seat and would instead run for the Senate in 2026. The new map morphed this consistency from one that would have favored Joe Biden took 50-48 into one that would have supported Donald Trump 58-41.
The Republicans running to represent this seat in the Raleigh exurbs and nearby rural areas are:
- 2022 state Senate candidate Chris Baker
- 2022 congressional candidate DeVan Barbour
- 2022 congressional candidate Kelly Daughtry
- Businessman Marcus Dellinger
- Some Dude David Dixon
- Former federal prosecutor Brad Knott
- 2020 congressional candidate Steve Loor
- Army veteran Josh McConkey
- Real estate agent James Phillips
- Accountant Sid Sharma
- Former intelligence officer Matt Shoemaker
- Army veteran Eric Stevenson
- 2022 state House candidate Fred Von Canon
- Conservative activist Kenny Xu
Knott is already getting $500,000 in ad support from a super PAC called the American Foundations Committee, whose leaders have extensive ties to state Republicans.
• NC-14: Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson launched a bid for attorney general after Republicans gerrymandered his seat, and GOP state House Speaker Tim Moore now appears to be on a glide path to replace him.
Moore's only intraparty foes are perennial candidate Jeff Gregory and Nalini Joseph, who took third in the 2022 primary for the safely blue 12th District. Another Republican, former state Court of Appeals Judge Eric Levinson, announced he was running in November but did not file last week. Donald Trump would have carried the new version of this seat in western Charlotte and the western foothills by 58-41, while Joe Biden took the last incarnation 57-41.
• NC-AG: Two sitting House members, Democrat Jeff Jackson and Republican Dan Bishop, are likely to face off in a closely watched race to replace Democratic gubernatorial frontrunner Josh Stein, though only Jackson has a contested primary. However, a new poll from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling shows Jackson leading Durham County District Attorney Satana Deberry by a wide 34-8 margin, with attorney Tim Dunn at 2%.