We have, as always, good and bad carbon news from the latest Conference of the Parties, COP28. There is getting to be more good news, and the bad news is now getting serious pushback. We have been at this for more than 50 years now against furious and massively funded opposition, and now it’s all happening.
As I have often said, the funny thing about tipping points is that nothing seems to happen until you reach one, and then everything seems to happen at once.
Good News Thursday: The Fifty-Year Rule in Politics
Wilberforce founded and led the fifty-year campaign against slavery in the British Empire
Major social change requires changing minds, and at the same time it requires that its opponents die off in the normal manner. This tends to shift opinion by about 1% annually, in favorable cases, so that from a standing start we can get to a voting majority in favor of the new policy in about 50 years.
Global Warming was predicted in the 19th century, and verified in both measurements and insurance claims in the early 1970s. The Fossil Fool industry hired the tobacco denialists to mount a furious campaign of lies, gaslighting, and political lobbying. They got a majority of the population back then to buy their disinformation, and convinced Ronald Reagan to take down Jimmy Carter’s solar water heaters from the White House roof.
Well, their fifty years are up.
I’ll send her a link to this Diary, and some others from DK.
Good News 🌴
Not only are governments and corporations promising action on Global Warming, but we increasingly have the means to hold them to account.
Keep track with COP28 pledges to UN funds that help developing countries reduce greenhouse emissions and address the impacts of climate change.
The big injustice of the climate crisis is that the poorest and most vulnerable communities, who have done the least to cause the problem, are hit first and worst by the impacts.
In an effort to help address this, governments meeting as the Conference of the Parties (COPs) to the UN climate convention have created a number of multilateral funds that pool contributions from many contributors and provide dedicated support to help developing countries reduce greenhouse gas emissions and address the impacts of climate change.
At COP28 in Dubai, rich countries are under pressure to rebuild trust with developing countries after the failure to deliver the $100 billion per year goal on time and recent data showing they are off track to doubling adaptation finance from 2019 levels by 2025. One way they can do this is to announce pledges to UN climate funds.
To help keep track of pledges as they come in, we’ve created this tracker for five climate funds created under the UN climate convention. It explains briefly what each fund does and tallies pledges in recent years.
The Latest Such Fund
Yale: Students and Faculty Prepare to Head to COP28
Students and faculty from across YSE [Yale School of the Environment] and Yale will be attending the annual two-week climate summit hosted by the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, where “global stocktaking,” a first-of-its-kind international loss and damage fund, and youth participation are expected to take center stage.
The first-of-its kind "loss and damage" fund, which was established at COP27 as a way for wealthier nations to compensate developing countries for the devastating impacts of climate change, will be launched during COP28. On November 13, just a few weeks before the conference gets underway, the European Union and its member states said that they will announce a “substantial” contribution to the international fund during COP28.6fki
Loss and damage fund approved at COP28 summit: All you need to know
The fund will help developing countries that are vulnerable to the consequences of climate change. A few crucial details, however, remains unclear. The need of the hour is several trillion dollars, according to some economists.
Yes, we know about “some economists”. Like the ones who predicted two dozen Biden recessions, so far. Ask them how much money and how many lives the fund and other actions will save. Like cutting all of the subsidies for Fossil Foolishness.
US pledges $3 billion for Green Climate Fund at COP28
And Look! He Did!
Biden-Harris Administration Finalizes Standards to Slash Methane Pollution, Combat Climate Change, Protect Health, and Bolster American Innovation
Announced at COP28, the final rule will advance President Biden’s historic climate agenda, prevent 1.5 billion metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions, and deliver billions of dollars in health and economic benefits
Comment from Kossack DocGonzo in the Sunday Good News Roundup
Biden's EPA announced yesterday at COP28 a new rule that will eliminate an estimated 58 million tons of methane emissions during just 2024-2038 alone, and more continuing into the future. The rule forces oil/gas corps to plug old wells, stop leaks in pipelines and other distribution, and otherwise specifically ends methane leaks by the industry. The EPA equates that to 1.5 billion tons CO2, but its “GWP20” covering the announcement’s accounting timeframe is really 84-87x CO2’s, which is more like 5 billion tons CO2 (tCO2e).
The human world currently emits about 55 billion tons CO2e, of which about half is absorbed by nature. At that rate we’d emit about 322 billion tons too much by 2038. Cutting 5 billion tons by just this one new methane rule, in just the USA, would be about 1.5% of the total we need to cut.
Which doesn’t seem like much, but it’s just the one rule, and just in the USA. If the USA can get China to operate that way, then that would be over 3% of the way. If we can get India and Indonesia to do so, which seems more likely than China, we’d be over 5% of the way. Getting Russia to do it would bring us closer to 10% of the way, with just this one rule, but that seems too unlikely to hope for. We’ll have to do it in other ways, along with the other 95%+ we have to cut.
Biden administration forges first mineral deals at climate talks
The Biden administration has begun forging mining deals at the U.N. climate talks aimed at securing access to materials needed for electric vehicles and other energy technologies.
The International Development Finance Corp., a federal agency, formally approved $50 million to reprocess historic phosphate mining waste to produce rare earth metals.
In a separate deal, the U.S. promised Monday to help Mauritania with technology that would allow the West African nation to harness renewable energy instead of coal for steel production.
The administration in recent months has made a number of moves to make down payments on projects in Africa to shore up lagging U.S. supply chains and show American support for developing and enriching a continent that holds a third of the world’s critical minerals
Countries? What About Ultra-Big Business?
Methane agreement reached at COP28 climate conference (Hayhoe rating 🤦)
Some 50 oil and gas companies worldwide have pledged to dramatically reduce methane leaks to “near zero” by 2030 a move that could rapidly reduce emissions of the potent gas and forestall some climate change effects.
Ah, yes, the weasel word “some”. 🤦 They are doing this one because we can catch them now.
No, stop drilling, extracting, and burning.
DeSmog: UAE Oil Fields Constantly Flaring Despite 20-Year-Old Commitment To Stop, Analysis Shows
The pledge includes ExxonMobil and Saudi Arabia’s Aramco, among the largest oil and gas producers in the world.
Fred Krupp, President of the Environmental Defense Fund, said the oil and gas companies’ agreement could be the most helpful environmental action of his career if the companies hold to their commitments.
I”m glad that Fred is glad about achieving something, but Prof. Hayhoe points out that this is peanuts in oil and gas company revenues, and it isn’t something they were profiting from.
Methane-Mapping Satellites
Fred again.
We need to make sure the oil companies deliver, we need to hold them accountable.
EDF is planning to launch a satellite next year that can detect methane leaks.
There are several such satellites in operation now, returning important data.
ESA: Trio of Sentinel satellites map methane super-emitters
GHGSAT: Methane leak detection supported by satellites and aircrafts
At COP26, GHGSat and the government of Canada announced that Canada will be contributing the first high-resolution satellite data to the IMEO. [International Methane Emissions Observatory]
Space.com: Tiny satellites use AI to sniff for methane leaks on the ground (photos)
Including the one at the top of this Diary.
And there are more coming.
Harvard Gazette: Buying crucial time in climate change fight
MethaneSAT satellite will spot global sources of methane emissions, which in many cases can be halted with relatively simple fixes
MethaneSAT is scheduled to launch early next year. The project is the result of a unique collaboration led by the nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund and involves academic scientists, environmental activists, the private space industry, and philanthropic pockets deep enough to fund the design, construction, and launch of a satellite, which is traditionally the reserve of government and big business.
Africa
Nuclear Power
COP28: UAE signs deal with Bill Gates' nuclear company on advanced reactors
Bill Gates' advanced nuclear reactor company TerraPower LLC and the United Arab Emirates’ state owned nuclear company ENEC said on Monday they have agreed to study the potential development of advanced reactors in the UAE and abroad.
The memorandum of understanding comes amid a push by the UAE to expand its nuclear energy capacity, and a pledge by over 20 nations at the COP28 climate conference in Dubai to triple nuclear deployment this decade to fight climate change.
This is still a pie in the sky project that has not shown yet that it can be cost-effective. The company number-crunchers hold that costs can be brought down sufficiently with a sufficient production volume. However, it does include several technologies of interest. It can generate electricity from low-enriched uranium, and store it in a huge sodium blanket. The plant is designed to run at full power 24/7, but the storage system will allow it to fill gaps in wind and solar electricity generation. Units can be built in factories and delivered to the site, which can be expanded with multiple modules. Gates wants to build the first two demonstration reactors in Wyoming and West Virginia as alternatives to coal.
I will applaud if they can make all of this work, overcoming cost, regulation and supply problems—but not until then. As R&D, it seems to be worth the investments being made, including money from US DOE.
But why does the UAE want nuclear power when it has so much sun? Are they thinking of exporting these reactors to replace oil revenue?
Diseases
EVs
Icebreaker One: The road to COP28: Electric Vehicles
Our Open Energy program aimed to assist DNOs [Distribution Network Operators] in accessing the essential data needed to improve their services and accelerate the adoption of EV’s. The team identified a number of data points including but not limited to: information on public and domestic chargepoint locations, usage patterns, future installations and demand projections. These data points come from a variety of sources, namely: chargepoint operators, manufacturers, local authorities, and third-party data providers.
Using Open Energy, a DNO would be able to access hundreds of datasets with just one round of authentication and technical integration.This improved and more cost-effective access to data would help make sure that grid capacity can meet the demand from newly installed EV charge points.
Movin’ On: Electric Cars, SUVs, Buses Whisk COP28 Delegates Around Dubai
COP28, the 2023 UN climate summit opens in Dubai, UAE, promoting sustainability through electric cars and other eco-friendly vehicles.
This Movin’ On page does not allow text selection and copying, or even screenshots. I have never seen anything like it.
World Bank: COP28 Event: Moving Towards Zero Emissions E-mobility
Watch the event on YouTube
- Date: : December 6, 2023
- Time:: 9:30-11:00 AM GST
- Venue:: MDB Pavilion and Online (YouTube)
I’ll see whether I can report on that next Tuesday, or possibly sooner.
Other Renewable News
Yesterday now.
What to say if climate change comes up over the holidays
-
Focus on solutions
-
If you disagree, don’t attack. Ask questions
-
Find opportunities for connection
I need to do a whole post on how to talk to your Cranky Uncle. We have lots of advice backed up by evidence. I put a quick summary, with links, in Truth Sandwiches: New Lies for Old yesterday.
Lithium in the US
And then nearly all of it can be recycled.
Religion and the Environment
Yale: Divinity School establishes endowed professorship in environmental ethics
A burgeoning field, environmental ethics pursues critical reflection and action to ensure the well-being of the planet and its ecosystems.
Bad News 🤦🤦🤦
Global Warming Resources
Not all of these sources have anything to say about COP28 right now. I can’t think why not.
Next Tuesday
We return to major developments not directly related to COP28. There will be some news following up on COP28, of course.
The projects and deals continue to get bigger and more frequent. I predict that some time in the 2030s this will cease to be news outside the business. There will continue to be car news, but not news about electrifying the industry or building more charging stations.
