I am going to lead right in with some reasons to be hopeful about Biden winning in November. Most of this info is from my personal hero Simon Rosenberg who was the only person to predict 2022 correctly!
Reasons to be Hopeful about November
Biden Leading in 4 New Polls
there is now a 4th national poll out this week showing Biden leading Trump. All polls via 538:
-
44-42 Economist/You Gov - 3 pt gain since mid-Nov
-
43-42 Morning Consult - 4 pt gain since last week
-
39-37 YouGov
-
37-35 Leger/The Canadian Press
A few notes on these new polls: 1) polls cannot tell you what is going to happen tomorrow, or next year. They can only tell you where things are now, and where things are now can and will change. National polling has clearly changed from a few weeks ago, with Biden gaining ground in 2 important weekly tracks, and leading in other polls too. 2) It can no longer be said that Trump leads, or is favored next year. That may have been true a month ago. It is no longer true. Joe Biden has a slight lead now in national polling. Period. 3) Why has this happened? Don’t know yet. Will it sustain? Don’t know. We will see. 4) Still think the most important electoral data out there is our very strong performances in the elections across the US throughout 2022 and 2023. Polling is only one piece of the data available to us to understand what is happening in our politics. It’s an important piece, but only a piece. 5) Been getting a lot of chatter that the only polls that matter next year are state not national polls. This is not true, as these polls often move together and data is data. We look at what’s available to us, and national polling matters of course. It is also not a given that Biden needs to win by 3-4 points to win the Electoral College in 2024. It’s just too early to know that, particularly given our strong performance in the battlegrounds in 2022 and possible third party disruptions. 6) While we have a long way to go in both the Israel-Hamas conflict and the 2024 election these polls are just good news, with no qualifiers - no ifs, buts, commas or semicolons. They are just good news and we take the wins here at Hopium when they come.
Why I Am Optimistic About 2024
-
The last four presidential elections have gone 51 percent-46 percent Democratic, best run for Dems since F.D.R.’s elections. Only 1 R — George W. Bush 2004 — has broken 48 percent since the 1992 election, and Dems have won more votes in seven of last eight presidential elections. If there is a party with a coalition problem, it is them, not us.
-
Our performance since Dobbs remains remarkable, and important. In 2022 we gained in AZ, CO, GA, MI, MN, NH, PA over 2020, getting to 59 percent in CO, 57 percent in PA, 55 percent in MI, 54 percent in NH in that “red wave” year. This year we’ve won and outperformed across the country in every kind of election, essentially leaving this a blue wave year.
-
We got to 56 percent in the WI SCOTUS race, 57 percent in Ohio, flipped Colorado Springs and Jacksonville, flipped the VA House, Kentucky Governor Andrew Beshear grew his margin, we won mayoralties and school board races across the United States. Elections are about winning and losing, and we keep winning and they keep losing.
In a recent post on his Substack, “Why I Am Optimistic About 2024,” Rosenberg elaborated:
“Opposition and fear of MAGA is the dominant force in U.S. politics today, and that is a big problem for super-MAGA Trump in 2024. Fear and opposition to MAGA has been propelling our electoral wins since 2018, and will almost certainly do so again next year.”
also from the post:
Hispanics - A late September large sample (1401 interviews) bi-partisan Univision poll just of Hispanic voters had Biden leading Trump 58%-31% (+27). This would put Biden at or above of two of the three Hispanic exit polls from 2020, and within striking range of what I think his number needs to be in 2024
Young People - A new gold standard Harvard/IOP youth poll (2098 interviews) has Biden up over Trump with likely 18-29 year old voters 57%-33% (+24). +24 was Biden’s margin in 2020 according to the Exit polls.
and this:
In what is very bad news for Rs, despite having a live primary right now, there’s been a significant drop in vote intent for young Republicans from four years ago while Dems are holding:
-
Democrats (Fall 2019: 68% “definitely vote,” Fall 2023: 66%)
-
Republicans (Fall 2019: 66%, Fall 2023: 56%)
-
Independent/Unaffiliated (Fall 2019: 41%, Fall 2023: 31%)
and even this:
Young people are voting and they get the stakes
Young voters may not be excited about the presidential contest, but they're still politically engaged and finding other reasons to get to the polls in 2024.
Plus, by and large, they hate Trump.
My big reason for hope is that we are in this together and we will do all we can to keep Trump out of office. What can you do?
Looking for something else? Maybe something that doesn’t involve donating? GREAT! Here are some other ideas:
So pick just one and get to it!
Now onto MORE good news!
Biden and The Democrats are doing great things
Biden Moves to Forgive Nearly $5 Billion in Student Loans
President Joe Biden moved to forgive $4.8 billion in student loans Wednesday, providing relief to more than 80,000 borrowers including public sector employees and Americans who have been repaying their federal debts for decades.
The move implements regulatory changes taken by the administration to expand access to existing programs. Under new rules, the US wiped out $2.6 billion in loans for more than 34,000 federal, state, local, and nonprofit employees, including teachers and members of the military.
President Joe Biden moved to forgive $4.8 billion in student loans Wednesday, providing relief to more than 80,000 borrowers including public sector employees and Americans who have been repaying their federal debts for decades.
The move implements regulatory changes taken by the administration to expand access to existing programs. Under new rules, the US wiped out $2.6 billion in loans for more than 34,000 federal, state, local, and nonprofit employees, including teachers and members of the military.
November Jobs Report: U.S. Job Growth Continues to Be Robust
The economy continued to generate robust job growth in November, suggesting there is still juice left in a labor market that has been slowing almost imperceptibly since last year’s pandemic rebound.
Employers added 199,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported Friday, while the unemployment rate dropped to 3.7 percent. The increase in employment includes approximately 41,000 autoworkers and actors who returned to their jobs after strikes, and others in related businesses that had been stalled by the walkouts.
n a statement, President Biden celebrated November’s jobs report, citing the economic recovery since he took office: “On my watch we have achieved better growth and lower inflation than any other advanced country. A year ago, forecasters said it couldn’t be done.”
The Economy Is Remarkably Strong. Period. Stop The Bullshit.
- I’ve been working with polling and economic data for over 30 years, and it is critical we take a step back and realize just how strong the American economy is right now. Despite COVID, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, OPEC repeatedly raising oil prices, global inflation, unprecedented GOP economic sabotage, war in the Middle East - despite it all - the American economy is on one of its best runs in decades. The data is clear. Facts are facts. This game to somehow say it is otherwise has become ridiculous, and embarrassing for the national media. This red wavy bullshit needs to end.
Consider:
-
GDP growth was 5.2! last quarter
-
US has had best recovery from COVID in the G7
-
Inflation was zero last month
-
Wage growth remains robust, 5% via Atlanta Fed; wages have been beating inflation for many months now
-
Median wealth up 37% from 2020-2022; median wealth for 18-34 year oldsin this period more than doubled
-
Jobs are more plentiful than anytime since the 1960s
-
US has lowest uninsured rate in history
-
New businesses being created at record rates
-
Stock market on a very good run, near record highs, Dow is 18 times higher than 1989
-
US setting records in oil AND renewable energy production
-
Gen Z home ownership matching previous generations
-
Many cities and states have raised the minimum wage in recent years, creating a much higher income floor for young and poorer workers
-
Biden has erased $127 billion in student loan debt
-
Biden investment agenda will create growth, innovation, opportunities for American workers for decades to come
Yes, Simon, but people’s lived experience are telling them otherwise….inflation has still overwhelmed them, folks are still really down on the economy, etc….
I no longer believe any of that to be true. Just as the “red wave” did not capture what was going on the electorate in 2022, I just don’t believe people are as down on the economy as conventional wisdom holds
-
Are people spending so much money right now?
-
Are people so satisfied with their own life, work, incomes?
-
Does the party in power, Democrats, keep winning elections across the US?
-
Does almost every Senator and Governor have positive approval ratings, with the vast majority over 50%?
-
Is there such a partisan divide on Biden’s economic job approval? In Economist/YouGov last week Biden’s economic job approval was 75%-17% among Dems, 15%-82% among Rs. This means the answer to this question is not being driven by “lived experience” but by partisanship, and exposure to the right wing noise machine (h/t Paul Waldman).
US targets oil and natural gas industry’s role in global warming with new rule on methane emissions
The Biden administration on Saturday issued a final rule aimed at reducing methane emissions, targeting the U.S. oil and natural gas industry for its role in global warming as President Joe Biden seeks to advance his climate legacy.
The Environmental Protection Agency said the rule will sharply reduce methane and other harmful air pollutants generated by the oil and gas industry, promote use of cutting-edge methane detection technologies and deliver significant public health benefits in the form of reduced hospital visits, lost school days and even deaths. Air pollution from oil and gas operations can cause cancer, harm the nervous and respiratory systems and contribute to birth defects.
Kamala Harris Revealed What the U.S. Wants to See After the Israel-Hamas War Is Over
This past weekend, on a whirlwind one-day trip to Dubai for the COP28 climate summit, the vice president met with heads of state from across the Middle East to develop a consensus for a shared vision of what a lasting and just solution to the conflict looks like.
While Harris has been intensively engaged with the president and the rest of the team shaping the U.S.’ actions in the region since the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack against Israel, she has from the outset shared the president’s concern that somehow the cycle of violence between Israel and the Palestinians must be broken.
Precisely what interim steps must be taken to achieve that goal was the subject of her meetings with Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, King Abdullah of Jordan, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan—who is president of the United Arab Emirates, and a phone call she had with the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani.
In a public statement following the meetings, the vice president said, “There is a mutual desire to figure out how we are going to approach ‘the day after’ in ways that bring stability and peace in the region.”
It is the belief of White House officials that a revitalized Palestinian Authority with political control of both the West Bank and Gaza is, while enormously challenging, one of the critical components of the governance priority cited by Harris in all of these conversations.
An even more sensitive component of the governance issue cited by more than one official with whom I have spoken in the Biden administration is that it will also require a change of government in Israel. While few expect a new government to be radically different from that of current Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, it is fair to say that all see his likely departure following a cessation of hostilities in Gaza as a “positive development.”
Bad News for Bad Guys
McCarthy fucking with the GOP majority. I’m here for it.
Prosecutors Accuse Trump of Wide-Ranging Efforts Pre And Post-2020 To ‘Encourage’ Violence and Lies
It was one day after the 2020 election, and vote-counting in multiple key swing states was starting to speed up. The results weren’t looking good for Trump.
So, prosecutors with Special Counsel Jack Smith’s office said in a Tuesday filing, a Trump campaign employee worked to stage a riot at the main vote tallying center in Detroit, Michigan to block the count.
Smith said that the episode would allow him to demonstrate at trial that Trump and those working for him both knew they had lost the election and sought to interrupt the vote count.
It’s one example of violence directed at stopping an electoral function — in the case of Detroit, vote-counting — which Smith said he intends to introduce at trial. Smith said he would also introduce evidence showing Trump’s support in recent months for convicted Jan. 6 defendants, including Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio and scores of lower-level insurgents.
That, Smith said, would help show motive on the day of the Capitol insurrection; that Trump “sent supporters, including groups like the Proud Boys” as part of an effort to “achieve the criminal objective of obstructing the congressional certification.”
In some ways, the filing suggests, Smith appears to regard Trump’s attempt to block his 2020 loss as him running a premeditated playbook — one he would have put into action had he lost to Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Trump loses chance to challenge N.Y. gag order before trial ends
A New York appellate court Monday told lawyers for Donald Trump that they missed a deadline to seek permission from a panel of judges to quickly consider a request to file a higher court challenge to a gag order against Trump in connection with a $250 million civil fraud case.
Fake Donald Trump electors settle civil lawsuit in Wisconsin, agree that President Biden won
Ten Republicans who posed as fake electors for former President Donald Trump in Wisconsin and filed paperwork falsely saying he had won the battleground state have settled a civil lawsuit and admitted their actions were part of an effort to overturn President Joe Biden’s victory, attorneys who filed the case announced Wednesday.
The settlement marks the first time that any Trump electors have revoked their filings sent to Congress purporting that Trump had won in seven battleground states. Nevada on Wednesday became the third state to criminally charge fake electors, following Georgia and Michigan. Trump faces charges in Georgia and in a federal investigation of his conduct related to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.
Pro-Trump lawyer Kenneth Chesebro cooperating in multiple state probes into 2020 fake electors plot
The pro-Trump lawyer who helped devise the 2020 fake electors plot and already pleaded guilty to the conspiracy in Georgia is now cooperating with Michigan and Wisconsin state investigators in hopes of avoiding more criminal charges, multiple sources told CNN.
In a dramatic turnaround from 2020 – when the lawyer, Kenneth Chesebro, was at the center of efforts by former President Donald Trump to subvert the Electoral College and overturn his defeat – Chesebro is now helping investigators in at least four states who are looking into the scheme.
Chesebro’s cooperation in Wisconsin is the first indication the state attorney general’s office has launched its own investigation into the false slates of pro-Trump electors. Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul, a Democrat, has not publicly announced that an investigation is underway.
Other Good News
Billionaires had a surprisingly bad day in the Supreme Court today
The Supreme Court spent much of Tuesday morning beating up Andrew Grossman, a lawyer asking the justices to revive a long-defunct limit on Congress’s ability to levy taxes.
The case Grossman was arguing, Moore v. United States, is widely viewed as a preemptive strike on wealth taxes — that is, taxes that target the stockpiled wealth of very rich people and that don’t simply tax the income rich people earn off of their wealth.
In any event, most of the justices appeared extraordinarily skeptical of Grossman’s arguments, and of the idea that the Court should revive a long-discredited limit on the federal government’s taxing power which the Court briefly embraced during its Lochner Era — an age where the justices regularly signed onto dubious legal arguments that protected capital from taxes and from workplace regulation.
Only Justices Samuel Alito and Neil Gorsuch appeared to have any sympathy at all for Grossman’s attacks on Congress’s power to tax investors. And, while both men threw a barrage of hostile questions at Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar, Alito and Gorsuch’s colleagues seemed uninterested in humoring them.
At one point, Justice Brett Kavanaugh, a Republican, interrupted Alito to ask Prelogar a softball question — a clear sign that Kavanaugh was unpersuaded by Alito’s arguments. At another point, Justice Amy Coney Barrett, another Republican appointee, cut off a similar line of questions by Gorsuch.
But fiscal policy wonks who feared that Moore could blow a massive hole in the federal government’s finances can probably heave a sigh of relief. At the end of the day, Grossman’s arguments appeared to be too weak, and too rooted in discredited legal theories that the Court abandoned nearly a century ago, to persuade even this court
Senate confirms 425 military nominees after Sen. Tommy Tuberville drops his hold
The Senate confirmed more than 400 military nominees Tuesday afternoon after Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., announced he would drop the bulk of his holds, ending a monthslong campaign.
Tuberville "has nothing to show for his 10 months of delay," Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a scathing speech after the nominees were confirmed
Labor’s Very Good Year
This year has been a good one for labor unions. They have won victories in Hollywood and the auto industry, and 67 percent of Americans approve of unions, according to Gallup.
I think we’ve passed some key milestones. For example, last year Microsoft hammered out an agreement with a major union, the Communications Workers of America, that allowed employees to unionize without pushback from management and without a contentious election. Microsoft appeared to do so, at least in part, so that the union would not oppose its purchase of the video game maker Activision Blizzard.
A few hundred video game workers at Microsoft have already unionized under the agreement — a first at a major tech company — and they will likely finalize a labor contract next year. If more Microsoft workers follow suit, the attention could put pressure on other companies where workers have unionized but are struggling to negotiate a contract, like Starbucks, Microsoft’s Seattle-area neighbor.
In the auto sector, the United Automobile Workers is making a considerable investment in organizing workers at nonunion manufacturers like Tesla and Toyota. While the odds may be long at any single plant, a breakthrough at one of them could create momentum elsewhere. And the union has a more compelling case to make after negotiating large wage increases and other gains during its recent strikes at the Big Three.
More doctors and other health care workers are also beginning to unionize amid frustrations with understaffing and overwork. Consolidation in the U.S. health care system has left many feeling like cogs within large corporations. At Walgreens and CVS, union organizers are reaching out to restive pharmacists.
We learned from earlier periods — most notably the late 1930s, when the rate of union membership rose to nearly 27 percent from about 13 percent in just two years — that unionization is very much a social phenomenon: Workers see it succeed in one workplace, and then emulate it in their own, even if the law or employers aren’t accommodating. That tends to make it nonlinear. It can be puttering along and then suddenly accelerate. At Starbucks, the number of unionized corporate-owned stores went from zero in November of 2021 to two in December 2021 to more than 250 by the end of 2022.
On the Lighter Side
What can you to save democracy?
We here at the GNR have set up a fundraising ActBlue account where you can donate and have it evenly distributed between 24 races that will be key to winning the House in 24!
Go ahead and donate at this link:
More worried about keeping tfg out of the WH? You could:
Looking for something else? Maybe something that doesn’t involve donating? GREAT! Here are some other ideas:
So pick just one and get to it!
I am so lucky and so proud to be in this with all of you 💓💚💛🧡✊🏻✊🏽✊🏾✊🏿✊❤️🧡💛💚