Politically, it can be tempting to see this time of year as a bit of a lull (unless it’s a presidential election year, but it’s not, so let’s fret about primary schedules another time).
But when it comes to statehouse action, there’s not much of an off season.
Take next week, for example.
We Be Burnin: On Tuesday, February 21, a bunch of super important elections are happening (some special, some … well, “ordinary” doesn’t feel like a great way to describe them, but you get my drift).
Let’s start with the special specials.
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In New Hampshire, where Republicans just barely control the 400-seat state House, this Tuesday’s special election is special because of the circumstances that brought it about.
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In Wisconsin, voters will cast ballots on Tuesday in two primary contests: one special, one regularly scheduled.
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The special primary is for the 8th Senate District’s GOP nomination (with a special general to come on April 4), where three Republicans are battling it out as Democratic nominee Jodi Habush Sinykin rakes in campaign cash.
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Those three Republicans are state Reps. Janel Brandtjen and Dan Knodl and Thiensville Village President Van Mobley.
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Wisconsin’s regularly-scheduled primary on Tuesday isn’t actually for a state legislative election, but it will have an outsized impact on elections, reproductive rights, and more, so it’s absolutely one to watch.
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As I’ve said before in this space, arguably the most consequential election of the spring is happening in Wisconsin on April 4, and the balance of power on the state Supreme Court is at stake.
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But the path to April runs through Feb. 21, when a four-person field – two conservatives and two progressives – will be narrowed to just two contenders for an open seat on the state’s highest court.
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Currently, conservative justices (candidates are nominated by the parties but are ostensibly nonpartisan and appear without party labels on the ballot) have a 4-3 majority on that court, and Republicans have used it to protect their gerrymandered legislative maps and buttress unpopular GOP policies.
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Soon, the court will hear and rule on a case that will either uphold or strike down Wisconsin’s abortion ban, and they have and will continue to hear cases on voting rights, workers’ rights, public school funding, gun safety, and more.
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These justices serve 10-year terms, so whoever wins in April is gonna be around and ruling on stuff for quite a while.
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But Democrats will only have a shot at that seat if at least one progressive makes it out of Tuesday’s primary.
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It’s difficult to predict who’s going to make the April 4 ballot, but if cash money is any indicator, we could be looking at a Protasiewicz-Dorow contest.
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According to the most recently available fundraising numbers, Protasiewicz has raised $725,000 and has $277,000 cash on hand, while Dorow has raised $365,000 and has $267,000 cash on hand.
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But while Kelly’s numbers aren’t as impressive ($100,000 raised, $202,000 cash on hand), he’s not exactly being left out in the cold by high-powered conservatives.
Yes, you read that right, and yes, Kelly is a dude. Don’t ask me to explain conservative attitudes towards women, it won’t be insightful and it will be all swears.
Should be a fun night all around.
Temperature: After the devastating gun attack at Michigan State earlier this week that left three dead and five wounded, a member of that state’s Democratic House was, I think, understandably frustrated that these mass shootings keep happening and no one seems willing to do anything meaningful about them.
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“Fuck your thoughts and prayers,” Michigan House Majority Whip Ranjeev Puri both tweeted and led a related official press release with.
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But unlike, say, a year ago, when the Republicans controlling the Michigan legislature blocked multiple gun safety bills Democrats pushed in the wake of the elementary school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, Puri and his colleagues are actually in a position to do something about it.
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As an erudite consumer of this missive, you’re likely aware that, for the first time in 40 years, a Democrat holds the Michigan governorship as Democrats also have majority control of both chambers of the Michigan legislature.
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Gun safety legislation was already on the menu of Democratic legislative priorities for their first session in charge in forever, but this week’s deadly shooting rocketed these measures to the top of their to-do list.
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Specifically, Democrats are working to pass bills that mandate universal background checks on firearm purchases, impose temporary “red flag” measures (involving court orders requiring police to seize a gun from an individual deemed a threat to themself or others), and require safe storage.
And voters are already on their side.
Give It Up To Me: Last week in this space, I noted that Republicans are guaranteed to win majorities in the Mississippi House and Senate this fall, just by virtue of how many GOP seats Democrats are leaving uncontested.
So … Just for fun, guess how many legislative chambers had locked-in majorities in 2022 before a single ballot was cast last fall.
It’s, like, a lot.
Most (19, specifically) of these effectively uncontested chambers are Republican-controlled:
- Alabama House and Senate
- Arkansas House and Senate
- Idaho House and Senate
- Indiana Senate
- Kentucky Senate
- North Dakota House and Senate
- Ohio Senate
- Oklahoma House and Senate
- South Dakota Senate
- Tennessee Senate
- Utah Senate
- West Virginia Senate
- Wyoming House and Senate
Democrats had pre-Election Day guaranteed majorities in two chambers:
- California Senate
- Massachusetts House
Whichever side of the aisle you tend to identify with, this is just … well, bad.
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Jan. 6, 2021, gets so much of the focus when it comes to attacks on democracy (and, well, it should, yes), but elections that literally don’t matter at all when it comes to which party has power in a state threaten democracy in their own way.
After all, when you know your vote doesn’t really matter in terms of who has power in your state, you’re less likely to take the trouble to cast it.
You can read the rest of this week’s edition here!