There have been plenty of rumors, accusations, Sturm und Drang, etc. going around about something big fixin’ to happen in Moldova. Some of those come from the Moldovan government, which has warned that Russia is planning to stage a coup in the former Soviet republic.
Moldova is Europe’s poorest country and before last year it would have been hard to find anyone who had even heard of it, much less cared about it. Moldova has attempted to lay low and stay neutral over the last 30 years in the hopes of not pissing off Russia. But it has applied for EU membership and many have suggested that Moldova should join NATO. The country also has traditional ties to neighboring Romania.
The current issue centers around the breakaway region called Transnistria, which declared independence from Moldova and allied itself to Russia. Hardly anyone recognizes Transnistria, which is a long thin strip of land sandwiched between Moldova and Ukraine.
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The ramping up of Moldova as an issue started about a week or two ago when Ukraine warned Moldova that Russia was planning to stage a coup in Moldova. The Moldovan government later reiterated those claims.
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And it was further amplified by the new prime minister of Moldova, Dorin Recan.
How would they do it, he asks. Likely the same way they tried to seize the Kyiv airport at the start of the war — by flying in “elite” airborne troops. That ended up blowing up in Russia’s face in Kyiv. In Moldova, it might actually work. Russia has 1,500 troops just a few kilometers away in Transnistria that could help and Moldova’s armed forces aren’t much to write home about. They have about 8,500 personnel in their armed forces. They have no usable fighter jets. They inherited more than 30 MiG-29s from the Soviet Union but those proved too expensive to maintain and most were sold off. At the start of the Russian invasion last year, Ukraine tried to buy the few remaining jets Moldova had stored, but Moldova refused, worried about pissing off the Russians.
The last thing I read, Moldova had one air defense site protecting the capital of Chisinau, although that might have changed recently.
Transnistria has its own militia of roughly 5,500.
Assuming the Chisinau airport is secured, Russia could fly in several thousand more troops and seize the entire country.
One big obstacle to that is the need to overfly Ukrainian territory to reach Moldova. Ukraine may have a gauntlet of air defense prepared that Russian transports would have to run.
Another wild card is the massive Cobasna ammunition depot (about 20k tons) in Transnistria, said to be the largest in Europe. If it were to be HIMARSed … well, let’s say it would be awe-inspiring video and it would leave one hell of a crater. Capturing it would be better because while a lot of that ammo is bound to be old and useless, a lot of it could be put to good use by Ukraine.
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And there have been reports of Ukraine massing forces on the border with Transnistria, which could be just an excuse for Russia to intervene.
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Russia, naturally, is waving the false flag, claiming that Ukraine is preparing to invade Transnistria.
More from the Russians:
And this:
The Moldovan government disputed the Russian claim of a false-flag operation by Ukraine.
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So what should be done about all this?
The options:
A. Do nothing. It’s all Russian BS. They won’t do anything.
B. Ukraine should proactively send troops into Transnistria from the east and Moldova from the west. Hopefully the Russian garrison there surrenders. If not, eliminate them. Secure the Cobasna ammo dump.
C. Wait to see if the Russians do something first, then move against them.
D. NATO should send in a peacekeeping force led by Romania at the Moldovan government’s invitation to secure the Chisinau airport and other sites, establish air defense systems and control the skies over the country. Then just let Transnistria and its Russian garrison marinade until the end of the war before dealing with it.
My choice is D.
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IN NON-MOLDOVAN NEWS: The guy gets shitfaced drunk and tries to chop his comrades up with an axe — and his punishment? A stern letter sent to his home.