Ukrainian unemployment situation and lonely men without work — replying to Bourne2Bmild.
Yes, unemployment is a great problem in Ukraine — it has been reported that in summer, the unemployment rate hit 35%. Now, it is still about 30%.
Nobody has the exact data because you just cannot count things when a third of a country's population has moved away. From what I see from my surrounding and the streets of Kyiv and my clients, the economy was hit heavily, particularly, during the first two months, when russia was capturing or destroying large portions of Ukrainian industry and logistics network, and in October-December, when Ukraine was put into an intermittent nationwide blackout.
In the areas near the front (which initially included probably half of Ukrainian economy — areas from Zhytomyr through Kyiv to Kharkiv to Zaporizhzhia, of course, Mariupol and other industrial cities of Donbas, and down to Mykolaiv) — at least half of the businesses closed. After the Russians were driven off, many (not all) businesses returned and restored their operations, which is particularly important for Kyiv as the biggest city in the country.
Yes, we have the men unemployment problem. After Russians were driven off from the north, and people could return to Kyiv and other places, it appeared that there was not much work left there.
The services industry took a big hit, of course. I know a lot of lawyers who got fired or lost all of their clients. My small legal practice was basically shut down from February till September; we had to fire people as well.
Part of the problem was economic, but another part was that it was not that easy to focus on some intellectual or creative work when there is fighting going on 30 kilometres from your home, people died all over the country and businesses crumbled. Many people who had any savings just went volunteering moving aid boxes around or delivering food and medicines for the old or disabled people or helping the army with similar logistics and support work. But you can't eat a “thank you”.
And life wasn’t getting cheaper — the 2022 inflation in Ukraine is 26%.
Another friend of mine is an experienced marketing specialist in his 40-ies with two kids. Probably half of their marketing agency was laid off at the end of spring. He has not found any stable work until now, doing odd jobs from time to time. It is also more difficult to learn a new trade when you are over 40 — as well as to compete with the younger guys for the same work. He had to agree to send his wife and two kids to Germany just to make sure they were guaranteed to be well-fed and dressed and were able to pay for the utilities.
There is a considerable amount of unqualified work paying around USD 500 per month, but that is just food, clothes and utilities for one person. You cannot maintain a family with that. And we have to care about our parents — the average pension is about USD 150, which effectively puts every non-working Ukrainian over 65 below the poverty line and at the edge of survival. People living in rural areas manage by literally growing their food. People in cities have to choose between buying food or paying utilities. And I am not talking about the money for the medicines here (we have free basic medical care for everyone, but many drugs must be purchased at their own cost). The good news is that both the state, the charity and international organizations do provide minimal food support and second-hand clothes for the poorest, so you won’t die of hunger living in the breadbasket of Europe. But having anything more than that may be very difficult.
Therefore, a large portion of Ukrainian refugees in the EU after May 2022 are in fact economic refugees — EU countries generously provide decent living conditions and provide money covering food and cloth and other basic needs. And, of course, the EU standard of “basic needs” is at least two or three times as high as the Ukrainian standard. But all of that relates mostly to children and women.
Ukrainian men are precluded from leaving the country, apparently, being considered as a reserve pool for conscription. It is clear that Ukraine does not need those 7-9 million men as conscripts. But from what I see as a lawyer, the problem is that Ukraine failed to create an up-to-date registry of conscripts before the big war, which means that the government simply does not know where and whom it has in terms of medical condition, professional skill etc. That database has only started to be created now...
Needless to say, it puts a lot of pressure on Ukrainian men as many of them are separated from their spouses and kids, have no decent work, and basically cannot do much to improve the situation. You can imagine the level of anger and desperation.
When the army was boosted from about 200 000 to — my guess — 500 000 in the spring of last year, the government introduced generous bonuses for the soldiers: about USD 1,500 for a non-fighting soldier and about USD 3,000 for those who were directly engaged in combat.
That was a kind of workable solution for the people who lost their jobs, as that money could feed their families back home (women also lost their jobs, of course).
This February, however, the government announced it basically slashes the non-fighting soldiers’ salaries in half to about USD 750, citing an enormous budget deficit (which is a fact). Needless to say, it was not taken lightly by the people.
Currently, my feeling is that the government is failing to counter the unemployment crisis. What they are trying to do (with international financial support) is to distribute grants and cheap loans for businesses for them to keep running, or, ideally growing, including loans to unemployed individuals who wish to start their businesses now. But we all know that not everybody was born a salesman or an entrepreneur.
And very few people and companies are willing to invest in a business located in a country at war. So we cannot count on any kind of “rebuilding boom” until the end of the war.
Having said that, I wish to make it clear that most of the Ukrainians, and men in particular, are doing their best — to find work, obtain new skills, care for their families, and/or move to the regions where there is work available. In the end, there is not much room for complaining, as we all understand that economic peril is bad, but still, it is nothing compared to the work of our soldiers paying the ultimate price for our freedom and security.
The government expects the unemployment rate to improve from 30% to 25% by the end of 2023 — unless there is more devastation brought by Russia.
As of now, however, it is estimated that Ukraine's poverty rate has grown from 2% to 25%, and is projected to reach 55% in 2023.
