On Wednesday night, Russia launched one of the largest missile barrages since the war began. The general staff of the Ukrainian military reported that there were a total of 73 missiles and eight Iranian suicide drones launched at 15 targets across Ukraine. Of those, 34 missiles and four drones were shot down.
Eighty-one missiles and drones were directed at targets across Ukraine.
That shoot-down percentage is lower than what Ukraine has achieved recently; however, there are reasons the batting average went down.
Breaking down the missiles reportedly launched:
Missiles launched at Ukraine overnight
| Number |
Type |
Launched from |
| 28 |
Kh-101 / Kh-555 |
Tu-160 bombers over Russia |
| 20 |
Kalibr |
Black Sea Fleet |
| 6 |
Kh-22 |
Black Sea Fleet |
| 6 |
Kh-47M2
|
Tu-22M3 bombers over Russia |
| 2 |
Kh-31 |
Strike aircraft over Russia |
| 6 |
Kh-59 |
Strike aircraft over Russia |
| 13 |
S-300 |
Ground launched, Russia |
| 8 |
Shahed-136 |
Iranian “Kamikaze” drone |
Of these, the Kh-101 missiles are a stealthy upgrade to the Kh-555, meaning that they were likely not picked up by Ukrainian defenses until much closer to their targets. The Kalibr accelerates to speeds approaching Mach 3 as it nears the target, but is still vulnerable to many of the defensive systems now in Ukraine. The Kh-22 reaches a maximum speed over over Mach 4.5 and is much less likely to be taken down. Then there is the Kh-47M2 “Kinzhal,” which is Russia’s hypersonic missile, capable of reaching Mach 12. It is essentially indefensible by anything Ukraine has or is likely to receive.
It’s likely that most of the other missiles were shot down at near 100% accuracy, but the Kalibr, Kh-22, and Kh-47M2 likely reached their targets with few taken out along the way. Some lucky Kh-101 might have also made it to target. Four of the Iranian drones also caused damage, likely because the large-scale missile attack distracted defenses that had lately been much more accurate in taking out these slow-flying drones.
The primary target of these attacks was reported to, once again, be the power infrastructure of Ukraine. Following the attack, Ukraine’s energy minister reported that the electrical system was “still intact,” though there may be outages in some areas.
In the last two weeks, there had been numerous reports that the power grid was coming back online after previous rounds of Russian attacks. Areas were seeing fewer outages, and some cities such as Kharkiv, which had suffered widespread blackouts for months, finally saw the lights back on. With improving power and warming weather, conditions in Ukraine were definitely improving. It was likely exactly these reports that spurred Russia into another round of attacks.
As with any of these attacks, one question immediately comes up: How many missiles does Russia have left? These are devices that were never quick builds, and the more advanced missiles require electronics and other components that Russia may have trouble finding with international sanctions (though someone will surely slip them a few microchips … for the right price).
Even if Russia’s missile factories are running at full speed, there’s no doubt that they have already burned through numbers that took not just years but decades to create. So how many are left?
The short answer is simply that we don’t know. Estimates of Russian military equipment are just that, and even analysis of what has been launched and what has been shot down is far from perfect. Back in November, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense put out this chart showing their best guess at what remained in Russia’s missile stockpile.
Ukrainian MOD estimate of Russian missiles from last fall.
Russia has continued to eat into these number since then. The good news is that the missiles Russia has in abundance, like those thousands of S-300 missiles, are also the ones that Ukraine is most capable of shooting down. If Russia wants to land these, they’d need to send a massive barrage that overwhelmed Ukrainian defenses, otherwise the swat down numbers are going to be very high.
The bad news is that the number of Kh-22 and Kh-47M2 “Kinzhal” are still very likely to be on the high side of 100, and every single one of those is a near guaranteed hit on whatever Russia sends them against. The Kh-22 might be intercepted during the slower portion of its flight once Ukraine has a more extensive network of air defense systems. Even the Kinzhal can likely be hit by a Patriot system thanks to the missile’s difficulty in maneuvering at high speed. But it’s going to take some time to roll out all the new air defenses still flowing into Ukraine, and Patriot is unlikely to cover more than a small percentage of the nation.
Still, one of the things that was remarkable about the strike on Wednesday night is that it was remarkable. For much of the summer and fall of 2022, Russia was conducting attacks nearly as large on a weekly basis, sometimes even more frequently, but this was the first large, multicity attack since Feb. 16. This one attack likely took 15% of Russia’s remaining stock of Kinzhal, a quarter of what it had left of Kh-22. The Mach 6 Iskander ballistic missile that was a major part of many past waves was totally missing on Wednesday, probably because Russia is nursing a shrinking supply they have largely depleted.
This isn’t to minimize the destructive power of what Russia might do with those remaining missiles. Directed against civilian population centers or government offices, the results could be gruesome. Putin could still press a button, direct 7,000 missiles at Kyiv, and deliver an ungodly strike without ever touching his reserve of medium- to long-range strategic missiles carrying nuclear warheads.
Ukraine’s own estimates also have Russia continuing to build over 600 new missiles a year, with nearly 200 being of the newest, hardest-to-stop designs. That’s a high level of ongoing misery, and no matter how many charts show that Russia has drastically reduced its stockpile, Russia continues to show it is willing to use what remains.
On Thursday, it appears that Ukraine has shelved any plans it may have had for withdrawing forces from Bakhmut. Not only have Ukrainian forces regained control over the “road of life,” they’ve repaired the bridge at Khromove, making it much easier to move in and out of the city. There are also reports that Ukraine has regained the use of the T0504 highway, which runs southwest from Bakhmut to the city of Kostyantynivka. A previously downed bridge along that highway may also have been repaired.
On Thursday morning, commander of Ukrainian ground forces Oleksandr Syrskyi insisted that Ukraine intends to hold Bakhmut as preparation for future counteroffensives and to exhaust the resources of the Russian army. According to Syrskyi, holding Bakhmut is now “more important than ever.”
Syrskyi was in the city again on Wednesday, working with local commanders. Bakhmut may not have held any strategic importance outside of being the place where logistics drove the fight to be hottest … but it’s hard to say it doesn’t hold strategic significance when the Ukrainian leadership is placing it at the center of their strategy.
The Ukrainian general wasn’t the only commander in the city on Wednesday. The owner of the Wagner Group mercenaries, Yevgeny Prigozhin, stepped into eastern Bakhmut long enough to have his picture taken by a monument to the old T-34 tank. Notably, while Prigozhin was flying the flag of Wagner Group, the Russian flag was completely missing from any of the pictures.
As far as the fighting goes, Russia appears to have advanced a couple of blocks in the south. At this point, Russia occupies roughly 50% of the city. Most of that is the area east of the river from which Ukrainian forces withdrew last week.
Tuesday’s Bakhmut map for reference. Open image in another tab for a larger view.
Russian forces also reportedly attack the village of Orikhovo-Vasylivka northwest of Bakhmut, but Ukrainian forces report that these attacks were repulsed. Another set of attacks west of Berkhivka were also reportedly repulsed, keeping that Khromove road still open, though subject to not just shelling but rifle fire in its most northern section.
To the south, there are reports of renewed fighting near Ivanivske, but no sign that the lines have moved far.
In Georgia, widespread protests against attempts at laws seen as an effort to clamp down on opposition political parties have spread to other cities. In Tbilisi, streets are full for a second night.
Some reports also indicate that Russians inside Georgia are “queueing up at the border” to get out. There was one claim of a violent clash between police and protestors in which a woman was shot, but that claim appears to have been taken down.
So far, protests appear to be large, enthusiastic, and mostly peaceful on Thursday night following some tense moments on Wednesday in which police in riot gear directed water cannons, tear gas, and flash grenades against the crowds. Those clashes have already generated iconic images.
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