I’ve only just now realized how much more screwed Russia is than I had previously recognized. Thanks to all of the incredible reporting on this site (especially Kos and Mark, of course!), my understanding of this war is frankly better than it was for some I’ve been more directly involved with. To offer something back, I would like to use the recent Ukrainian advances north of Bakhmut to illustrate a likely design feature of the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive.
One technique Russia uses for internal security is to keep any power center from becoming too strong, that’s why the Russian army has plenty of boom but little brain. It’s also why there’s and army, a separate national guard, a separate presidential guard force, Wagner and other PMC, etc. Russia plays their forces against one another, different organizations and different unit loyalties, and of course have different command structures. Military operations are complex so coordination is always a problem. But on defense, the lack of coordinated action can rapidly accelerate out of control.
Anytime two different units link together to defend a position, (i.e. Wagner gets the built up area of Bakhmut, then one army unit protects the line North and a different Russian unit guards the line going South), there’s a weakness. As we just heard about in Bakhmut, one unit (evidently) started pulling back while the adjacent unit remained in place. Even if both units were following a coordinated plan they were not doing it in coordination. Different units pass their word from HQ to the trenches differently, so there can be a time gap between when one unit gets word to move, and the other unit hears the same word through its official channels. This can cause panic if one guy asks his platoon leader if they’re leaving, hears no, but is watching the guys to his right grab their packs and haul ass. That’s what’s called an ‘exposed flank’ or a ‘gap in the line’ in military jargon.
What’s this all mean? It means if you’re going on offense, the best place to do it is where two different units link up. And not only does Russia like to put different units next to each other on the line, it doesn’t have any choice...too short of manpower. That means at select points along the entire line of contact, Russia has put units with different command structures next to each other. There is virtually zero chance for units with different command structures to coordinate a defense involving breaches. Induced panic is inevitable, and will spread. In fact, we’re already hearing indication of panic starting to spread. Russia has placed units under different commands, who don’t trust each other, next to each other, and Ukraine is going to exploit this during the counteroffensive.
Individual units can still fight effectively , but only after re-establishing a continuous perimeter. When there’s a gap between one unit’s new perimeter and the other units’, that gap will fill with a flow of Ukrainian forces. And if they’re fast and aggressive, they can be deep in Russian occupied territories ambushing units along their withdrawal routes, deeping the sense of being cut off and isolated.
This is where Russia’s dog-eat-dog culture destroys them. It will become a free-for-all, each man for themselves. Not only will the Russian occupation of Ukraine potentially end, completely, but the Russian Federation itself may splinter.
Slava Ukraine