Thanks to the continued dominance of Trumpism in the Republican Party, Senate Democrats are beginning to see a path to maintaining control of the upper chamber next year despite facing a perilous map.
As the Mitch McConnell wing of the GOP stares down the MAGA wrecking ball once again coming its way, Democrats vying to defend those endangered Senate seats are adopting varied strategies to reach the same end result.
Democratic Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, for instance, could face state Sen. Doug Mastriano, a forced-birther election denier who face-planted as last year's GOP gubernatorial nominee. Alternatively, Casey might line up against the McConnell wing's preferred challenger, former hedge fund CEO David McCormick, who lost to Mastriano in last year’s Republican gubernatorial primary.
Senate Democrats’ preferred candidate in the race is clear, yet Casey opted to be publicly agnostic about his preference, letting Republicans be the masters of their own undoing.
“I am not going to provide them any commentary that might help them,” Casey told Politico of the GOP primary.
On the other end of the spectrum, Rep. Ruben Gallego of Arizona is overtly summoning the great divine to lure his preferred Republican challenger into the Senate race: Trump ally and MAGA extremist Kari Lake, who also lost her gubernatorial bid last cycle. Gallego is aiming to unseat Democrat-turned-independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema next year and, regardless of whether Sinema stays in the race, facing a weakened MAGA election denier who Arizona voters already rejected surely improves Democrats' chances of keeping the seat.
“I’m a practicing Catholic – so I have these votive candles for different things,” Gallego told CNN last month. “I have a special candle for Kari Lake to jump in.”
Casey's inclination to let Republicans hang themselves is the preferred strategy of Democratic incumbents hoping to hang on to their seats in both battleground and red states. But the definitive advantage of Democrats potentially running against a slate of Trumpy candidates is coming into full view.
In Ohio, a man who has called for reparations for Northern families who fought in the Civil War has gotten an early nod from Trump.
"Word is that Bernie Moreno, the highly respected businessman from the GREAT STATE of OHIO, and the father-in-law of fantastic young Congressman, Max Miller, is thinking of running for the Senate," Trump posted last month on Truth Social. "He would not be easy to beat, especially against Brown, one of the worst in the Senate!"
Senate Republicans appear to be staying out of a potential GOP scrum in the Buckeye State for now, and Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is likewise plenty happy to let the Republican primary run its course.
“You think you’re going to get me to talk about that?” Brown offered rhetorically.
Democratic Sen. Jon Tester of Montana is also a man of few words on his potential challenger, who might end up being the candidate Tester defeated in 2018, hard-right Rep. Matt Rosendale. Trump endorsed Rosendale in the race and campaigned for him several times that cycle, all to no avail.
Tester remarked that Rosendale has "as good a chance as any” at winning the GOP primary, but he might also face Rep. Ryan Zinke, who was forced to resign in 2018 as a Trump appointee amid ethics violations during his time as secretary of the interior. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called Zinke "one of the most toxic members of [Trump's] cabinet."
Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen of Nevada, in contrast, is happy to field questions about her Republican challenger, Trump enthusiast Jim Marchant, a staunch election denier who lost his bid for secretary of state last cycle.
“He is, I believe, a three-time loser. A MAGA election denier. And so, he’s going to have his challenges,” Rosen said.
Nevada Democrats won a razor-thin victory last year against election denier Adam Laxalt to keep Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto's seat. They plan to rerun a similar play against a perennial MAGA loser like Marchant, who could help them prevail again in a state that consistently confounds pollsters.
After Marchant announced his candidacy a couple of weeks ago, Rosen immediately took aim. "Nevadans deserve a Senator who will fight for them, not a MAGA election denier who opposes abortion rights even in cases of rape and incest," Rosen tweeted.
One state where the McConnell wing has been slapping itself on the back is West Virginia, where popular GOP Gov. Jim Justice has announced his run for the seat currently held by Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin.
“We’ve already got Gov. Justice beating Manchin by 14 points, 43-29, in West Virginia," said Sen. Steve Daines of Montana, who's helming the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "And there’s a primary there, but that’s not going to affect the outcome of the race," Daines added, sounding a note of confidence.
Manchin, who hasn't announced a reelection bid, would likely prefer to face MAGA candidate Rep. Alex Mooney, who won Trump's endorsement last cycle and has the backing of the deep-pocketed Club for Growth.
But Manchin said Daines' optimism for a Justice primary win might be entirely misplaced.
“How popular is Mitch McConnell in West Virginia?” posited Manchin—a reasonable question given that McConnell personally recruited Justice into the race. Manchin warned that Mooney might prove more viable than people think.
“If people don’t take Alex Mooney seriously, that’s the greatest misunderstanding of the political process,” he said.
West Virginia remains Democrats' most glaring vulnerability next November, based primarily on the fact that Manchin hasn't made his intention to run for reelection known; that’s a decision he has slated for December. And the extent to which McConnell has misjudged the West Virginia electorate may be the X factor in whether Manchin chooses to defend his seat or hang up the reins.
But Manchin or no Manchin, Republicans already appear poised to give Democrats a fighting chance at retaining the Senate in a cycle when they are defending 23 seats, more than twice as many as Republicans' 11 seats.
How do you make a campaign ad that voters actually want to watch? We're discussing that critical question on this week's episode of "The Downballot" with leading Democratic ad-maker Mark Putnam, who's been responsible for some of the most memorable spots in recent years. Putnam details his creative process, which always starts with spending time with candidates to truly learn their story—and scouting locations in-depth. He then walks us through the production of the famous Jason Kander-assembles-a-gun-blindfolded ad that went viral and explains why, believe it or not, you always want footnotes in your attack ads.