Russian forces may be losing the initiative in the Bakhmut area despite the limited nature of Ukrainian counterattacks in the area.
Russian and Ukrainian officials acknowledged continued limited Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut on May 17. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that Ukrainian forces are advancing in unspecified areas on Bakhmut’s flanks.[1] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Ukrainian forces advanced up to 500 meters in the Bakhmut direction in the past day and continue to attack Russian flanks.[2] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) made marginal advances but acknowledged continued Ukrainian counterattacks against Bakhmut’s flanks near Bohdanivka (5km northwest of Bakhmut) and Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut).[3] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin denied the MoD’s claim of territorial gains, however, and criticized the MoD for falsely portraying a retreat as capturing new positions.[4]One prominent milblogger complained that Russian forces must now react to Ukrainian actions, implying that Russian forces are losing the initiative in the Bakhmut area despite the limited nature of Ukrainian counterattacks in the area.[5]
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Unfortunately, once the Ukrainians claimed they had knocked down a missile with the Patriot system, the Russian reaction was to attack that system with missiles.
CNN —
The damage to a Patriot air defense system following a Russian missile attack near Kyiv on Tuesday morning is minimal, three US officials tell CNN, with one official describing it as “minor” damage.
The US sent inspectors to examine the system on Tuesday after being told by Ukrainian forces that the system appeared to have been damaged, one official said.
The system itself is still operational, the officials said, and the radar component of the Patriot, one of its most important elements, was not damaged. US officials do not believe the Patriot will need to be removed from the battlefield for repairs.
A complete Patriot battery has six major components: generators, a radar set, a control station, antennas, a launcher station and interceptor missiles. The components operate together to fire a Patriot missile and successfully guide it to its target.
It’s not clear if it was damaged by an actual missile strike or falling debris. The Ukrainians said they successfully intercepted all six Russian Kinzhal missiles on Tuesday morning.
Yurii Ihnat, spokesman for Ukraine’s Air Force Command, has told Ukrainian TV that the US-made Patriot system could not be destroyed by a Kinzhal missile.
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- Russian and Ukrainian officials acknowledged continued limited Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut on May 17.
- Ukrainian officials reported that terrain features constrain Ukrainian offensive operations across the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
- US officials reported that a Patriot air defense system is operational after Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian missile strikes on Kyiv destroyed the system on May 16.
- The Kremlin reportedly accused three hypersonic missile scientists of treason.
- Select Russian strongmen (siloviki) are likely attempting to signal to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin that he must cease his political ambitions in Russia.
- The Russian siloviki may be intimidating Russian officials affiliated with Prigozhin to discourage their cooperation with Wagner but appear to be unsuccessful in their attempts to scare Prigozhin into obedience.
- Russian authorities continue to crack down against domestic anti-war dissent in an effort to strengthen domestic repressions and prepare Russian society for a long-term war effort.
- Russian authorities are likely forcefully integrating Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) dioceses in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast as part of a wider religious persecution campaign in occupied Ukraine.
- Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
- Russian forces continued to make incremental gains in Bakhmut and conducted limited ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
- Russian forces continued to target west (right) bank Kherson Oblast and islands at the Dnipro River delta out of fear of planned Ukrainian counteroffensives.
- The Kremlin continues crypto-mobilization efforts by recruiting regional volunteer battalions and criminals.
- The Russian State Duma adopted amendments to the martial law on May 16 that authorize the forced and controlled movement of citizens from territories under the martial law to the territories without marital law.
- Russian ultranationalists are speculating about the fate of Belarus’ independence in case of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s severe illness or death.
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Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line on May 17. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Masyutivka (13km northeast of Kupyansk), Novoselivske (14 km northwest of Svatove), Stelmakhivka (15km northwest of Svatove), Nevske (19km northwest of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna).[30] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces conducted ground attacks near Synkivka (about 7km northeast of Kupyansk) and Novoselivske, and pushed Ukrainian forces to the Oskil River after taking Masyutivka.[31] ISW has not yet observed visual confirmation that Russian forces have captured Masyutivka. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that the 252nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (3rd Motorized Rifle Division, 20th Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) repelled two Ukrainian ground attacks near Chervonopopivka (6km north of Kreminna).[32] Geolocated footage published on May 16 shows artillery elements of the Russian 20th Combined Arms Army (Western Military District) striking a bridge over the Zherebets River in Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna).[33]
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Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued to make incremental gains in Bakhmut on May 17. Geolocated footage posted on May 17 shows that Wagner Group forces made incremental advances in southwestern Bakhmut.[34] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted a failed ground attack west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut) but advanced northwest of Bakhmut near the Bakhmut-Khromove highway, Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest), and Mynkivka (13km northwest).[35] Another milblogger claimed that Wagner forces completed the capture of a Ukrainian fortified area in western Bakhmut and began pressuring Ukrainian forces in an adjacent contested area.[36] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on May 16 that Wagner forces advanced 200 meters and that Ukrainian forces only control 1.46 square kilometers of territory in Bakhmut.[37] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar acknowledged on May 17 that Russian forces made incremental advances in Bakhmut.[38]
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Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Russian forces continued to target west (right) bank Kherson Oblast and islands at the Dnipro River delta on May 16 out of fear of planned Ukrainian counteroffensives. Kherson Oblast Administration shelled Kherson Oblast 79 times between May 16 and May 17.[44] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that the Russian Air Force struck Ukrainian units in Kizomys and Velentenske on west (right) bank Kherson Oblast with FAB-500 aerial bombs.[45] The milblogger also claimed that Russian forces struck Ukrainian military equipment on Malyi Potemkin Island southwest of Kherson City with Kh-22 and Kalibr missiles.[46] The Ukrainian Border Guard Service indicated that elements of the Russian 8th Separate Artillery Regiment of the 22nd Army Corps has been involved in large-scale artillery fire against Kherson City.[47]
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Ukrainian officials reported that terrain features constrain Ukrainian offensive operations across the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian Southern Forces Joint Press Center Head Nataliya Humenyuk acknowledged that the width of the Dnipro River hinders Ukrainian territorial advances in Kherson Oblast and called for the information space to “forget” about Ukrainian offensive activities in the Kherson direction.[6] Ukrainian Security Services (SBU) Colonel Roman Kostenko stated on May 14 that the Ukrainian forces pushed Russian forces back from the islands close to Kherson City and stated that the islands have poor terrain, no trenches, limited shelter, and that the ground is always wet.[7]
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Without real deterrence, a future of repeated Russian invasions looks all too likely.
Ukrainians and international officials are correct that the country’s postwar reconstruction — potentially a $1 trillion project — is unlikely to succeed without credible Western security guarantees. What U.S. or European firm would risk sinking millions in a new manufacturing facility that might be the target of a future Russian missile strike?
Yet with Russian troops occupying 17 percent of Ukrainian territory, it is premature to lay out detailed plans for Kyiv’s accession to NATO. Full membership would likely mean maintaining several thousand combat-ready NATO soldiers in Ukraine. That would be in addition to roughly 40,000 soldiers deployed elsewhere along the alliance’s eastern flank as well as Ukraine’s own troops, plus additional forces under member states’ command that could be quickly mobilized.
Preparing Ukraine for eventual NATO membership could be the right strategy after the war — especially if it ends with Russian troops driven out of Ukraine. To the United States and some of its European allies, the more pressing task now is to equip Ukrainian forces so they can retake as much Russian-occupied land as possible, in hopes of enhancing Kyiv’s muscle in eventual peace negotiations.
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