A senior Russian lawmaker who was reportedly critical of the invasion of Ukraine died over the weekend, the Russian government confirmed, in the latest unexpected fatality of a prominent figure since the war began.
In a statement, Russia’s Ministry of Science and Higher Education confirmed that Deputy Science Minister Pyotr Kucherenko, 46, died on Saturday. The ministry said he “became ill” while on board a plane carrying Russian delegates home after a business trip to Cuba. The flight made an emergency landing in southern Russia but doctors couldn’t save him, the ministry added.
[...]
Kucherenko’s untimely demise is one of many unexpected, high-profile deaths across Russia since the invasion started last year. Russian military officials, energy executives, and outspoken war critics have all died in mysterious circumstances over the course of the first year of the war. In February, a military bureaucrat who criticized the Kremlin for losses in Ukraine fell 16 floors to her death in St. Petersburg.
www.thedailybeast.com/...
who profited from this
Today the Belgorod region (now called BPR) was attacked by Russian anti-government units of the Russian Volunteer Corps and Freedom Legion of Russia.
Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted a raid into Belgorod Oblast on May 22. Russian sources began reporting on the morning of May 22 that a detachment of the RDK and LSR consisting of two tanks, an armored personnel carrier, and nine other armored vehicles crossed the international border and captured Kozinka, a settlement in the Grayvoron region of Belgorod Oblast within 600 meters of the border with Sumy Oblast.[1] Several Russian sources claimed that the grouping then captured the settlements of Glotovo and Gora Podol (3km and 5km from the border, respectively), although some milbloggers disputed claims that the attack completely captured Glotovo or Gora Podol, instead reporting that RDK forces only got to the Glotovo House of Culture.[2] ISW has not yet observed geolocated confirmation that the RDK or LSR reached Glotovo or Gora Podol. Geolocated footage posted on May 22 does confirm that the RDK struck a border post near Kozinka before crossing the border with at least one tank.[3] The RDK also posted footage reportedly showing the body of a Russian border guard in a border station, likely from the border crossing near Kozinka.[4] Russian milbloggers later claimed that Russian troops retook control of all three settlements.[5] Some Russian sources additionally reported that Russian forces repelled pro-Ukrainian sabotage groups near Dronovka, about 22km northwest of Kozinka.[6] The RDK additionally posted footage reportedly outside two settlements near the border area in Bryansk Oblast, but the nature of this incursion is unclear and ISW has not observed additional evidence or discourse surrounding actions in Bryansk Oblast on May 22.[7]
understandingwar.org/...
RIGA, Latvia — The Kremlin on Thursday blamed Ukraine for an attack in two villages in the Bryansk region of western Russia, in which President Vladimir Putin said assailants had “opened fire on civilians” and the Bryansk governor said two people were killed and hostages were taken.
An aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denied that Kyiv was involved in the incident, which Putin called a “terrorist attack.” Details of the incident were extremely sketchy, and, in an age of ubiquitous cellphone videos, no footage or photos of an attack were circulating on social media, even hours afterward.
Russia’s Federal Security Service, the FSB, initially issued a statement saying that “measures are being taken to eliminate armed Ukrainian nationalists who violated the state border.”
But two fighters claiming to be members of a far-right Russian anti-Putin nationalist group fighting on Ukraine’s side in the war claimed responsibility, declaring “Death to the Kremlin tyrant” in a video filmed outside a medical clinic in the village of Lyuberchane, near Bryansk, close to the Ukrainian border. The group calls itself the Russian Volunteer Corps.
“You have to understand, there is nothing,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a G7 summit hosted in Hiroshima, Japan, on Sunday. “They destroyed everything,” the Ukrainian leader added. “There are no buildings. It’s a pity, it’s a tragedy, but for today, Bakhmut is only in our hearts. There is nothing on this space, just ground and a lot of dead Russians.”
www.nationalreview.com/...
Russian electronic warfare (EW) remains potent, with an approximate distribution of at least one major system covering each 10 km of front. These systems are heavily weighted towards the defeat of UAVs and tend not to try and deconflict their effects. Ukrainian UAV losses remain at approximately 10,000 per month. Russian EW is also apparently achieving real time interception and decryption of Ukrainian Motorola 256-bit encrypted tactical communications systems, which are widely employed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Russian air defences have also seen a significant increase in their effectiveness now that they are set up around known, and fairly static, locations and are properly connected. Although Russia has persistently struggled to respond to emerging threats, over time it has adapted. Russian air defences are now assessed by the Ukrainian military to be intercepting a proportion of GMLRS strikes as Russian point defences are directly connected to superior radar.
[...]
An overview of Russian adaptation reveals a force that is able to improve and evolve its employment of key systems. There is evidence of a centralised process for identifying shortcomings in employment and the development of mitigations. Nevertheless, much of this adaptation is reactive and is aimed at making up for serious deficiencies in Russian units. The result is a structure that becomes better over time at managing the problems it immediately faces, but also one that struggles to anticipate new threats. The conclusion therefore is that the Russian Armed Forces pose a significant challenge for the Ukrainian military on the defence. Nevertheless, if Ukraine can disrupt Russian defences and impose a dynamic situation on them, Russian units are likely to rapidly lose their coordination. Changes in the air combat environment, for example, have led rapidly to incidents of Russian fratricide.
rusi.org/...
For decades, Russia amassed the bulk of its advanced military forces in the so-called Western Military District, hunkered down on NATO’s borders, including near the Baltic States. Now, many of those forces have been thrown into the meat grinder in Ukraine, where Russia’s army has suffered devastating losses that could take decades to rebuild.
But even as the war drags on in Ukraine, Russia plans to rebuild its forces facing its new and expanded frontiers with NATO, according to interviews with multiple Eastern European defense and military officials. Officials in Washington may be sanguine about the longer-term threat from a Russia that has sowed Ukrainian fields with conscript bodies, but in Eastern Europe, and especially the Baltics, things still look dicey. Russia could fully reconstitute the number of troops facing the Baltic countries in a matter of two months to two years, these officials said, posing a new threat of a Russia-NATO military showdown even if the conflict in Ukraine isn’t resolved.
Even if the troops and equipment won’t be of the same quality as those deployed to the region before the war, dn into NATO territory—making units like the French combined arms squadron all the more significant for their deterrence value.
foreignpolicy.com/...
There were 25 clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces along the front line on May 22, including Bakhmut, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported in its evening update.
The White House has estimated that Russia has suffered 100,000 casualties in the fight for Bakhmut alone, including the deaths of more than 20,000 soldiers.
Ukraine is estimated to have suffered some 20,000 casualties.
www.dw.com/…
- The Kremlin says Russian forces are working to eliminate a Ukrainian army “sabotage group” that crossed the border. Kyiv has denied responsibility, saying Russian citizens were likely behind the alleged attacks.
- The Wagner Group will leave Bakhmut starting on Thursday and transfer control of the eastern Ukrainian city to Russia, according to the chief of the mercenary force. Ukraine denies Russian claims that Bakhmut has fallen.
- Power has been restored at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant after Ukraine and Russia blamed one another for the latest blackout.
- The United Kingdom says Russian troops are likely forming a new “elite” aviation group as the West pledges to bolster Kyiv’s air defences.
www.aljazeera.com/…
www.nytimes.com/...
- Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russian Legion (LSR) conducted a raid into Belgorod Oblast on May 22.
- Ukrainian officials noted that they are aware of the attack but denied any direct involvement by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The raid prompted a slate of responses from local and federal Russian officials.
- The Russian information space responded with a similar degree of panic, factionalism, and incoherency as it tends to display when it experiences significant informational shocks.
- Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that Wagner forces will withdraw from the entire frontline in Ukraine after June 1 in order to reconstitute and train for about two months.
- Ukrainian officials stated that limited fighting continued in and around Bakhmut on May 22.
- The Russian informational response to the capture of Bakhmut has thus far focused on competing for responsibility for the victory rather than discussing the resulting military situation. The hyperfocus on claiming victory in Bakhmut distracts from the precarious Russian military situation in and around Bakhmut, underscoring the weight of Prigozhin’s influence in the information space.
- Russian forces launched another large-scale drone and missile strike against Ukrainian infrastructure on the night of May 21-22.
- Russian forces continued limited ground attacks in the Kupyansk direction.
- Russian forces made marginal gains in the Avdiivka area and did not conduct any confirmed or claimed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast.
- The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant reportedly lost power for the seventh time since the beginning of the war.
- The Russian military is reportedly lowering the length of training for convicts in order to compensate for heavy losses.
- Russian occupation authorities announced that preliminary voting for the ruling United Russia Party has commenced in occupied territories.
understandingwar.org/...
Russia carried out an overnight air attack on the southeastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro, officials said.
The Ukrainian army said 16 missiles and 20 attack drones had targeted its troops and the city's infrastructure.
Local governor Serhiy Lysak said on Telegram that eight people were injured and that three of them were being treated in the hospital.
"Thanks to the defense forces, we withstood the attack. Details will come in due time," Lysak said, referring to Russian forces as "terrorists."
RBC-Ukraine news agency reported that around 15 blasts were heard during more than 90 minutes of air raid alerts.
But it wasn't clear if the sounds were air defense systems destroying targets or Russian missiles or drones hitting their targets.
With a Ukrainian counteroffensive looming, Russia has resumed missile and drone strikes this month after a nearly two-month lull.
Waves of attacks now come several times a week, the most intense of the war.
www.dw.com/...
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces continued limited ground attacks in the Kupyansk direction on May 22. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions towards Masyutivka (13km northeast of Kupyansk).[38] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that units of the Western Group of Forces stopped three Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups about 20km southeast of Kupyansk near Tymivka, Kyslivka, and Ivanivka.[39] A Russian milblogger warned that Ukrainian forces may be preparing to attack positions of the Western Military District (WMD)’s 1st Guards Tank Army and 6th Combined Arms Army on this sector of the front.[40]
understandingwar.org/...
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
See topline text on Bakhmut.
Russian forces made marginal gains in the Avdiivka area as of May 22. Geolocated footage published on May 21 shows that Russian forces made marginal territorial gains southwest of Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka).[43] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Novokalynove (7km north of Avdiivka), Vodyane (6km southweset of Avdiivka), and Marinka (18km west of Donetsk City).[44] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also attacked near Sieverne (7km west of Avdiivka) and Novomykhailivka (10km southwest of Donetsk City).[45] Ukrainian Donetsk Oblast Head Pavlo Kyrylenko reported that Russian forces shelled Avdiivka with cluster munitions.[46] One Russian milblogger expressed concern that Ukrainian forces are concentrating armor for an offensive effort from Avdiivka against Donetsk City, but another milblogger claimed that the alleged armor buildup is insufficient for such an effort.[47]
understandingwar.org/...
Bakhmut, which Russia triumphantly claimed on Sunday to have captured, is a ruined city that has taken on outsize importance in the war.
While Ukrainian officials have denied the Russian claims to completely control the eastern city, they concede that Moscow’s fighters hold nearly all of Bakhmut after almost a year of ferocious shelling, near-suicidal ground assaults and house-to-house urban combat.
Many military analysts have suggested that Bakhmut would have more symbolic than strategic value for Russia. Although control of the city does not guarantee that Moscow can make further advances, it would represent Russia’s first major battlefield victory in Ukraine since last summer.
www.nytimes.com/...
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was switched to standby, a Russia-installed local official in the Moscow-controlled part of the region said.
Vladimir Rogov said the plant was "completely" disconnected from the external power supply after Ukraine disconnected a power line it controls.
Ukraine's nuclear agency Energoatom accused Russia of carrying out an attack that caused the power cut.
The agency said the shelling caused the seventh instance of the plant entering "blackout mode" since Moscow's troops took control in March 2022.
Anatoliy Kurtev, Zaporizhzhia city council's secretary in Ukraine, said that work was ongoing since early Monday to restore power to the city.
On several occasions, the Zaporizhzhia power plant has been the center of intense fighting between Russian and Ukrainian fighters, causing concern from international nuclear experts who feared a potential accident at the facility.
www.dw.com/...
The F-16, although currently being replaced by the newer fifth generation F-35, has for decades been the primary fighter fielded across much of NATO as well as by key American allies beyond Europe such as South Korea and Israel, and is considered the most suitable Western fighter for Ukraine due to the sheer numbers in which it is available as well as its lower operational costs and maintenance needs than alternatives like the Eurofighter or F-18.
[...]
Not only is there a possibility that the fighter or its technologies could fall into Russian hands, as other Western equipment has in considerable quantities, but there is also a much greater chance that the fighters could suffer significant losses both to strikes on their airfields and in air to air combat which would be a major blow to the F-16’s reputation.
militarywatchmagazine.com/...
As usual we start with Russian losses per 22/05/23 reported by the Ukrainian general staff. We include footage of destroyed, damaged or captured Russian equipment or personnel.
+720 men
+2 tanks
+9 APCs
+20 artillery pieces
+1 MLRS
+1 aircraft (Su-35)
All Shahed-drones and 4 cruise missiles were shot down overnight, but unfortunately there were also hits registered in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
An accident with Russian Patriarch Kirill Gundyaev's car
A BTR-82A captured, more on the event on how this happened later in this thread.
A warehouse in Voronezh went up in flames.
In Belgorod city center, reportedly drones attacked an FSB office.
Lets continue with the general events. F-16 fighter jet training has already started.
The US once again confirms it sees Crimea as Ukrainian.
A possible change in the higher ranks of the Ukrainian government.
CV90's are on their way to Ukraine!
And then, a look back at what today was all about. The Ukrainian-affiliated Russian Volunteer Corps and Freedom Legion of Russia invaded the Belgorod region of Russia, engaged in fighting with Russian troops and took over at least a number of villages and captured heavy equipment
It started with an appeal on their official Telegram-channel to residents of border villages to stay inside.
Soon after, the first reports came in of heavy explosions and massive shelling of villages on the Russian side of the border with Ukraine near Kozinka.
After a while it became clear there was actually an attack on Russian soil, performed by anti-Russian government forces that want to get rid of Putin.
Russian Volunteer Corps and Freedom of Russia Legion fighters started to appear on the streets, taking over Kozinka, Glotovo, Grayvoron and reportedly also parts of Zamost'e.
Even helicopters started appearing near the area where fighting emerged. There are unconfirmed reports that a helicopter from the Russian Federation forces crashed in the area although we haven't seen proof yet.
A comment from the Ukrainian leadership about the ongoing attacks during the day. They denied Ukraine's involvement in the attacks.
Fight is still ongoing and Russia has still not regained full control, while even pulling up aviation to the area.
To the front. As for the discussion whether or not Ukraine is present in Bakhmut, I can be brief. basically all troops have left Bakhmut, a 'covered retreat' is being conducted in the black dotted area to allow remaining troops to leave Bakhmut unharmed. Khromove area unchanged.
South of Bakhmut, based on my latest info, progress is made west (black square) of Klishchiivka. The exact depth of this advance is not yet clear and will become clear in the coming days. It is clear that after losing strategic positions, Russia has difficulty with its defense.
Furthermore, things seem to be happening north of Soledar in the area around Sakko I Vantsetti-Vasyukivka, but there is no information available or no visual confirmation of footage to adjust the map. We'll keep an eye on this.
That's all for today. Tomorrow a new SitRep as you are used to from me.
Covering the war every day takes time, effort and dedication. If you want to support that, feel free to use
buymeacoffee.com/noelreports
Have a nice day or a good night,
NOËL