The following are some thoughts i have on Russia’s defenses, as well as how i think some things will play out. This isn’t meant to be a discussion of tactical scenarios for how Ukraine might deal with them, especially the significant prepared fortifications throughout the left bank and Crimea, as there are more competent members here who can inform us about that. However, i welcome any and all comments on that score in addition to anything that i mention below.
Also, this isn’t a Casandra post. It isn’t meant to be a breathless warning. The Russians are going to be {{{mauled}}} imho. However, just as the Ukrainians suffered an estimated 20,000 casualties at Bakhmut — about a fifth of that of the Russians but still an enormous loss — i think we should be respectful of the fact that the coming counteroffensive may be costly.
One thing that i want to say off the bat is that one should be careful about interpreting the various maps out there showing the locations of those constructed fortifications.
At this scale each of those dots covers an enormous bit of territory. The Russians have not constructed a giant, contiguous barrier across occupied Ukraine. But even at smaller scales (ie. zoomed in) it can seem a lot more formidable than it really is.
Having said that, i expect that some thought was put into the locations for those fortifications. Just going around will in many cases not be an ideal solution. One builds fortifications so as to take advantage of terrain, just as it has been for thousands of years.
I’ve said that i believe that the Russians will be mauled. And they surely know that they will be facing an onslaught. But there are some things that they can do, over and above simply digging a lot of trenches, to mitigate some of that. Antitank mines, for example, are cheap and easy to manufacture. I expect that there are a great many already buried in Ukrainian soil. Probably, more than a few of them have been left, not only in the fields between barriers, but underneath some of those joke “dragon’s teeth” for all i know.
But the Russians have other options for slowing down Ukraine. The Ukrainians will bring overwhelming firepower to the offensive but defenders do have certain advantages. Although their performance has been shambolic throughout this ‘military operation’ we shouldn’t be too confident about the inability of the Russians to exact losses in the coming weeks.
Trees (and holes)
To begin with i think it’s important to be aware that those prepared defenses are not the first place that Ukrainian forces will come up against the Russians. Aside from breaking through the current ‘zero line’ they will be moving across country that is laced — i’m sure you’ve all noticed by now — a network of tree lines bordering each and every field on all sides. It’s the Normandy bocage, writ large — as though the terrain had been stretched to fit a larger surface.
They’re a lot thicker than they appear
When US forces attempted to move South from their beach landing areas they quickly learned that the Germans were making very good use of the thick hedgerows between fields, all but impenetrable to vehicles. Where soldiers made their way through the brush they would more often than not encounter fierce opposition from the other side of the next field. And then the Germans would quickly retreat across that field to the next hedgerow. Meanwhile, fire might continue to come from one side or the other. Each field, surrounded by its formidable walls of vegetation, was a killing field.
To be sure, the comparison is not perfect. To begin with, moving armoured vehicles through the tree lines in Ukraine has been, for the most part, a heck of a lot easier than it was in Normandy. The intervening fields are much larger than those in Northwestern France, and generally more regularly arranged. As i said, it’s as though the bocage had been stretched thin. But the Ukrainians will nonetheless face a lot of these barriers, each of which can hide quite a lot of Russians.
UPDATE: As i was working on this post i happened to see this video from United24, which also discusses some of the things that the Ukrainians will need to confront. And it, too, points out these many tree lines. In fact, we learns us all yet another Ukrainian word that will probably be mentioned a lot more from here on out: posadka.
One thing that i’d add to this description is that these thick tree lines not only block some of the wind but also absorb moisture, allowing the roads that run beside them to remain somewhat firmer than if there were no trees at all between fields.
Advancing across occupied territory towards those fortifications is going to require moving through and along a great many of these fields. Take a close look at this image of the region above Tokmak — itself a minute portion of the area that must be liberated. Remember, these fields are very large.
I’m not going to link to the BBC source because the article is full of egregious errors.
Each of those tree lines will potentially hide Russian defenders. Although the counteroffensive is going to involve a lot of rapid movement, bypassing many Russians, it’s going to require a lot of ‘cleaning up’ by troops coming behind. And that’s an awful lot of ground to cover. (Perhaps, ten or fifteen years from now, Ukrainian farmers will still be dealing with pockets of mobiks, not remaining in place out of loyalty to the emperor but fear of their own side mortaring them.)
I don’t mean to suggest that every tree line is going to have Russians dug in. After all, they are going to be steamrollered when this thing really kicks off. But the mobile part of the offensive won’t be happening everywhere at once. As the line collapses in places those Russians well off to the sides of the push are nonetheless going to find themselves in a tough spot. The Ukrainians opposite them will surely be putting a lot o pressure on them, even if they are not part of the brigades that are advancing. It’s these Russians, especially, who will have to be rooted out.
Although i’m less sanguine than many about how many Russian forces remain back of the front lines, those Russians near the front are not exactly mobile these days. I expect that many of them, regardless of whether they are facing the mobile brigades, will be fleeing for their lives, as opposed to making orderly withdrawals to each successive position.
Trenches
We’ve all seen by now how effective trenches can be at keeping one alive. And how difficult it can be to clear them of the enemy. Much surprise has been voiced at the ‘return to WWI’ but the fact is that digging in works.
The First World War tactic helping Ukraine fight a modern conflict
Mike Martin, The Telegraph, 31 March 2023
Every soldier carries an entrenching tool in their battle order. Unwieldy and inefficient, these lightweight folding spades seem designed to strip skin from your palms and the insides of your fingers. Using them is the definition of backbreaking labour. Yet they are almost revered amongst the infantry and kept clean, oiled and sharp, ready for use.
This is because of one very simple truth about trenches: they are the lowest common denominator of warfare. When all of your technology is spent or neutered – and particularly when you are unable to move through, or around, the enemy firepower arranged against you – trench systems will proliferate. Soldiers will dig, because compacted earth is one of the best absorbers of high explosives there is. In a trench you will be completely protected from small arms and, depending on the design of the trench – and except for direct hits – substantially protected from artillery, mortars and air attack. In a well-built trench, you will live to fight another day.
As an aside, that same Telegraph article mentions that the Russian government has been hiring civilians to dig trenches and construct other fortifications. All of those many trenches behind the lines are not being dug by mobiks. (I’ve seen at least one comment here suggesting just that.) For the most part, those trenches are being constructed with power equipment.
But the Russians too are rushing to build trench systems where they expect to defend in the coming months: adverts have appeared on Avito, a Russian version of eBay, seeking craftsmen to help build and fortify trenches in Crimea. The pay rate is 7,000 rubles (£72) a day which, for such risky work, tells you something about the state of Russia’s economy.
Why the author claims that this is risky work is beyond me. I should think that working out in the open in the middle of the Crimean Peninsula is safer than shopping for groceries in Lviv.
On the subject of digging, despite some very much deserved ridicule of the performance by Putin’s superpower army i nevertheless rolled my eyes at this howler:
Perhaps this was published with tongue firmly set in cheek but i think it’s important to point out that it is nonsense. I suspect that this was motivated by the ridiculous (and shameful) tactics on display at places like Vuhledar, where mobiks were forced to advance in small groups under fire, carrying as much ammo as they could — as well as a shovel of some kind. Now, being forced at gunpoint to run a gauntlet of artillery carrying ammunition for a fight that one very likely won’t live to see isn’t the kind of war that i’d prefer to fight. However, given the choice, i’d take that frigging shovel.
If you’ve seen even just a few videos of Ukrainian troops out in the trenches you may have noticed that there’s almost always at least one shovel in sight. Often, when there’s nothing else happening, one or more of them will busy themselves improving their trenches. Shovels are quite literally required equipment at the front.
hahaha! The soldiers are diggi — oh, they’re Ukrainian? Er, ah …
Again, they won’t all be manned by people out to kill the advancing Ukes. And some of those Russians will break and run. The tree lines aren’t impossible for people to walk through. But they are often quite a tangle. And the leaves are out now. Even with infrared cameras on drones it may not be possible to detect every position within the trees from the air. And not every position will be a trench. In some cases they’re just a camouflaged hole in the ground.
The "Wild Field" special unit together with the 1st "Da Vinci Wolves" battalion of the 67th OMBr cleared the enemy's positions near Khromovoy. The enemy was gathering forces to take under fire control the only "road of life" to Bakhmut. As a result of the successful actions of the Ukrainian military, the Russians, namely the Wagner Zeks, were destroyed.
They’re almost literally walking over the hide before it’s spotted! Then, too, they spend quite some time (and munitions) assuring themselves that everyone inside a fortified dugout has been killed. This is the kind of thing that will have to be done throughout all of those myriad tree lines as Ukraine advances.
And just imagine the unexploded ordnance (UXO) disposal work to come.
Tanks (shitty ones)
Last year sometime, when we learned that Russia had begun shipping in ancient T-64s, i said that they’d probably not be used so much ‘on the field of battle’ but emplaced ‘hull down’ in shallow ‘tank scrapes’. Not long after came word that they were indeed being situated among the fortifications that were then being started above Melitopol and Tokmak. (Although i have no idea whether those reports were correct.) More recently, we’ve learned that the Russians have ‘graduated’ to their even more ancient T-54s.
If this is the case, i’d expect the Russians to also cover over those positions with logs and dirt to provide a modicum of protection from above. However, i don’t think that these would stand much of a chance even if covered.
But there’s another option for their use: inside buildings. (Those without a basement, that is.) While it’s usually unwise to attempt to use a tank inside urban areas that advice is usually for an attacker. The Russians will probably station some of their tanks under cover of various structures inside towns and cities in order to cover various lines of advance. A T-54 may be a pretty sucky tank in 2023 but i sure wouldn’t split hairs if i was on the wrong side of its gun. Such a use of their tanks could make life pretty miserable for any advancing troops and fighting vehicles.
However, it’ll only work so long as the Ukrainians don’t know it’s there. Unlike this one, for example:
Tanks (really good ones)
I mean the ones that Ukraine has recently received, of course. We’ve already seen that the Russians have built extensive fortifications (and well back of the front line, which speaks to their confidence) that are, in part, meant to defend against the masses of tanks and other armour that they can expect. But simply digging deep ditches won’t defeat those tanks. Clearly, the Russians are going to have to bring their anti-tank weapons game. But it remains to be seen whether they are up to the challenge.
One of the most impressive of these is the Kornet, which, although it has been in service since the late ‘80s, the latest version is very much capable of destroying or seriously damaging most modern tanks as it has been upgraded to defeat explosive reactive armour defenses.
9M133 Kornet
However, it has some serious drawbacks. For starters, it weighs about 80 lbs, must be mounted on a tripod, and requires two people to move about. Its rocket also produces a tell-tale smoke trail. This is important because the missile is directed with the use of a laser — and the beam must be kept on target from launch to strike. Tank crews are trained to watch out for signs of a missile launch (or, obviously, of anyone attempting to do so) and to quickly fire upon the source. Even if the missile is already in transit such action can be enough to cause the missile to divert.
It’s also not something that can be easily used from inside of a trench. I expect that many will be used from inside those tree lines.
Russia has some other man-portable weapons that can be used against both heavy and light armour, including the Metis-M, Konkurs, Fagot, Malyutka, among others. I have no idea how many they might have available but i’m certain that they’ve sent all that they can to Ukraine to face this counteroffensive.
In fact, a recent video, recorded just previous to the action towards Klischivka (Bakhmut southern flank) shows a large pile of Kornet missiles and other ATGMs of various types discovered in a field. The drone operators then spend some time attempting to damage or destroy as many as possible in anticipation of the coming attack.
What’s interesting to me is that, although the Russians had obviously made an effort to supply many of these weapons to the front, they were languishing in this spot some ways behind the zero line. One probable reason is that there is so much else that has to be brought further forward on foot: ammunition, food, water, etc. Another likely possibility is that the guys in the trenches at the zero line probably don’t know how to use them. Why bother lugging it forward the last couple of kilometres?
Now, i’ve read a report (cannot recall where) claiming that they have been training veteran soldiers (not recent conscripts) specifically to use various guided missiles. These, i would think, will be stationed in and nearby to the larger fortifications, rather than at the very front.
Regardless, anyone who fires a Kornet, or any other anti-tank missile is likely to be killed very soon afterwards.
I’ve also seen claims that the Russians have been very keen about using thermal blankets to camouflage tanks and other things from being seen with infrared cameras. These might be quite useful to anyone hiding inside a tree line with a Kornet. Whether anyone up near the current front will benefit from these is doubtful, though. I don’t imagine that Russia is capable of supplying tens of thousands of these things. But they might be found further back in some small abundance.
One last note about holes in the ground: Something else the Ukrainians will have to watch out for — lest they fall in — is the time-honoured Russian zindan: a medieval punishment hole. (Another fun word with which to impress people at parties!) Click through for the thread.
