This weekend is Memorial Day. In all 5 of our canvasses in Arizona, volunteers agreed to knock on doors on Memorial Day weekend “to remind Arizona that Ruben Gallego is a vet.” It is the only state where all of our Saturday canvasses agreed to continue voter contact over the holiday weekend.
It kinda makes sense (although i know of no logic behind these results), since Arizona is one of the three consensus “Toss-up” states. You no doubt have heard the conventional wisdom that “2024 is a very difficult map for Democrats.” Which is true. Arizona is at the top of the list, and volunteers there seem eager to show the 2020 (and 2022) results were no fluke.
2024 Senate Battleground Map
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been canvassing in Arizona since March 11th (and in Nevada since April). Winning Arizona is regarded as more tricky since Kyrsten Sinema changed her party status. Democrats are still at the bottom of the partisan registration pile in Arizona, which means we have to win over more independent voters that Republicans do (assuming that Republicans can retain all their own partisans). But Ruben Gallego has proven to be more resilient than expected, as we have been finding at the doors!
But from the conversations we have been having at their doors, Arizonans have decided that this election, 2024, is all about Donald Trump and Trump would (again) be driving how Arizonans voted next year.
228 volunteers came out to knock on doors in the eastern suburbs of Phoenix and Tucson last Saturday in the Arizona Congressional Districts First, Fourth and Sixth. They knocked on 16,712 doors and talked to 1,382 voters. 876 of those voters filled out at least part of the Issues Survey.
The Debt Ceiling negotiations was the Number 1 issue for the Arizonans we talked to Saturday (again). Economic Uncertainty, which is clearly tied to the game of chicken Republicans are playing with the Debt Ceiling, was the #2 issue concern. Inflation was the third most frequently raised issue on Saturday.
Biden Approval was up slightly among the Arizonans we talked to on Saturday at 51%; 14% expressed some measure of Disapproval. 11% of the voters who responded Approved of the job Sen. Sinema was doing while 39% expressed Disapproval. We ask ask about whether voters Approve of likely Democratic nominee Ruben Gallego. 48% of the voters we talked to had a positive impression of the Congressman. (We are not asking about disapproval of the Congressman yet.)
48% of the voters we talked to thought Gov. Hobbs was doing a good job, 7% said they disapproved of the job she was doing. Because some of our volunteers want to compare Sinema disapproval numbers to Rep. Ruben Gallego’s approval numbers, we include it here (as we will each week).
Volunteers registered 11 new voters in Arizona on Saturday, 47 voters who updated their addresses (or updated their voter registration to participate in the Active Early Voting List — the latter skews the number higher). In Arizona, we had 77 voters fill out Constituent Service Request forms. We send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors since March in a grassroots-led effort to prepare the Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are taking those efforts to the doors of Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel
Hope Springs from Field PAC understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. We are returning to the old school basics: repeated contacts, repeated efforts to remind them of protocols, meeting them were they are, helping voters to understand the importance of super-compliance with these new voting restrictions that Republicans keep enacting. Mentoring those who need it (like first time and newly registered voters). Reminding, reminding, reminding, and then chasing down those voters whose ballots need to be (and can be) cured (in states that allow it).
164 volunteers turned up to knock on doors in the southern suburbs of Las Vegas and the outskirts of Reno last Saturday. They knocked on 14,584 doors and talked to 1,260 voters. 766 of those voters answered at least some of our questions on the Issues Survey.
The Top 3 Issues canvassers found in Nevada last weekend were Housing issues, the Debt Ceiling was Second and Crime was Third. But there wasn’t a lot of agreement this week, and the top issue was barely above 10%.
Biden’s Approval numbers among the Nevadans we talked to was at 51% last Saturday, with a Disapproval number of 13%. Senator Rosen had an Approval rating of 58% with 11% of the voters we talked to on Saturday expressing Disapproval. Approval of Governor Lombardo was 24% and Disapproval was 38% last Saturday. (Lombardo had previously been the Clark County Sheriff so he is better known in the Vegas area but less identifiable to Reno voters.)
Volunteers registered 4 new voters and re-registered 18 voters. 33 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms. These are passed along to Democratic office holders, when possible, but to the appropriate office, if not.
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. We do our best to weed out Republican households but we are including mixed households this year, after our successful efforts to win over Republican voters in mixed households in the Georgia Runoff.
At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.
But the main focus of our canvassing right now is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. We find that most voters who aren’t in a hurry or in the middle of something are willing to answer at least a couple of these questions, especially their top issue or concern and their views of President Biden. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as Congressional Districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them.
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel
Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!
