We have reached that point in the election cycle when I become laser focused on the next election. Good things happen. Terrible things happen. All I can think about is how important it is for us to win (and win big) in just over a year.
Last week, I talked about how republicans are on a losing streak in elections and how that bodes well for us in 2024
Jennifer Rubin from the Washington Post has noticed the same thing
Elections matter: Despite all the gloom and doom, Democrats have been winning plenty of races (Senate seats, governorships in 2022; a better outcome than pundits expected in the House), including victories against Republicans in mayoral races (e.g., Jacksonville, Fla.) and the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Democratic polling consultant Catalist explained how they did it and what it means for 2024.
You might enjoy reading its granular finding in full. But several factors stand out. Democrats must focus on young voters. (“Gen Z and Millennial voters had exceptional levels of turnout, with young voters in heavily contested states exceeding their 2018 turnout by 6% among those who were eligible in both elections.”) They need to lean in on the abortion issue, which weighs heavily in Democrats’ favor, especially among women voters.
As long as Republicans maintain the image of a loony, extreme party, their electoral ceiling will remain low. (They know they have severe problems with younger voters and that the White share of the electorate is declining.) If Democrats keep their coalition intact and turn out the vote, they can cement and build on their 2018, 2020 and 2022 successes.
This all bodes well for 2024. Does it mean we will win, for sure? Oh heck no. It means that, if we work hard, we have a really really good chance.
This is the time for hard work.
What can you do?
now onto the good news!
Good News for Good Guys
The American economy is historically strong, and our workers are doing well
The US unemployment rate today is 3.4%, the lowest peacetime unemployment rate since WWII, and the lowest since 1969. A majority of Americans alive today have never experienced an unemployment rate this low. The current Black unemployment rate, 4.7%, is the lowest ever recorded. The worker participation rate for prime age workers is now higher than before the pandemic.
In the last few months, America has experienced the lowest uninsured and lowest poverty rates in its history.
GDP growth is averaging over 3% in the Biden era, a very strong number. Our economic recovery from COVID is the strongest of all advanced economies. The Dow is up 24% since Election Day 2020, and is at the upper end of its performance over the past generation. Wage gains and new business formations are at historically elevated levels.
The current Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast has GDP growth coming in at 2.9% this quarter. Job growth remains very strong - 253,000 last month. While things are slowing down, as we want them to be, we are not currently headed toward a recession.
Despite the enormous global disruption of COVID and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the American economy is remarkably strong, people are working, their wages and incomes are rising, and fewer are uninsured than ever.
Last Few Weeks Have Been Good Ones for Democrats
The Biden election narrative/frame of more freedom/less freedom is very powerful, their early ads and videos have been great, they are working to expand the battleground (really important) and they have started the campaign early.
. As more and more of our grassroots patriots out there get used to doing this field work - postcards, calls, texts, canvassing - we get better at it, and our field operations are becoming ever more powerful every two years. It’s a central reason why we did better in the early vote in the battleground states in 2022 than we did in 2018 or 2020 - our field operations are becoming bigger, more sophisticated and more effective every cycle
Both Trump and DeSantis Have Had Bad Stretches - Trump was found guilty of sexual assault, and was indicted for felony level crimes in Manhattan. His legal problems are likely to get far worse in the coming months, and I am sorry but I just don’t know how he wins the Presidency with all this additional baggage. Since 2020 he has led an insurrection against the United States, stolen secrets and lied to the FBI about it, is a convicted sex offender, and is likely to get indicted several more times. Whether it is showing up in the polls or not yet, he is a degraded political figure who already lost a Presidential. He will be a deeply problematic nominee for Republicans.
DeSantis’ core narrative - electoral prowess and good Governor - has taken big hits in the last few weeks. He trails Trump badly in the polls (not a winner).
Bad News for Bad Guys
Ron DeSantis’s very online and very disastrous 2024 campaign announcement
Ron DeSantis’s campaign has been predicated on his competence. Unlike the undisciplined Donald Trump, he won’t lash out on Twitter, get consumed by petty grudges, or even inspire an unruly mob to attack the US Capitol. Instead, DeSantis is running as the candidate who gets things done. He touts that he fights “the war on woke” and wins as he transformed the swing state of Florida into a Republican bastion.
Then, on Wednesday night, he announced his presidential candidacy on Twitter Spaces with Elon Musk and billionaire David Sacks.
To put it mildly, it was a disaster. The audio feed cut in and out, users were continually kicked off the app, and, for the first 20 minutes, all anyone could hear was feedback, wait music, and occasional crosstalk as Sacks and Musk tried to figure out just what was going on. It was chaos and anarchy.
Trump Ally Could Face Perjury Charge if He Doesn’t Cooperate With D.A.
After bringing charges against former President Donald J. Trump, the Manhattan district attorney’s office is once again investigating Allen H. Weisselberg, 75.
One of Donald J. Trump’s longtime lieutenants, Allen H. Weisselberg, was recently released from the notorious Rikers Island jail complex after pleading guilty to a tax fraud scheme. Yet Mr. Weisselberg’s legal troubles are far from over.
The Manhattan district attorney’s office is now considering a new round of criminal charges against Mr. Weisselberg, 75, and this time he could be charged with perjury, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
The threat of new charges represents the latest effort in a two-year campaign to persuade Mr. Weisselberg to testify against Mr. Trump. And it comes at a crucial time, just weeks after the district attorney, Alvin L. Bragg, unveiled an indictment of the former president.
Trump was warned about retaining classified documents, notes reveal
Federal prosecutors have evidence Donald Trump was put on notice that he could not retain any classified documents after he was subpoenaed for their return last year, as they examine whether the subsequent failure to fully comply with the subpoena was a deliberate act of obstruction by the former president.
The previously unreported warning conveyed to Trump by his lawyer Evan Corcoran could be significant in the criminal investigation surrounding Trump’s handling of classified materials given it shows he knew about his subpoena obligations
E. Jean Carroll Seeks New Damages From Trump for Comments on CNN
E. Jean Carroll, who this month won $5 million in damages from former President Donald J. Trump, is now seeking a “very substantial” additional amount in response to his insults on a CNN program just a day after she won her sexual abuse and defamation case.
Ms. Carroll’s filing Monday in Manhattan federal court seeks to intensify the financial pain for Mr. Trump. The jury in her civil case found him liable on May 9 for sexual abuse and defamation. It ordered him to pay Ms. Carroll, a former advice columnist and fixture in Manhattan’s media circles, $2 million for the sexual abuse and $3 million for the defamation.
Prosecutors Sought Records on Trump’s Foreign Business Deals Since 2017
Federal prosecutors overseeing the investigation into former President Donald J. Trump’s handling of classified documents have issued a subpoena for information about Mr. Trump’s business dealings in foreign countries since he took office, according to two people familiar with the matter.
the subpoena suggests that investigators have cast a wider net than previously understood as they scrutinize whether he broke the law in taking sensitive government materials with him upon leaving the White House and then not fully complying with demands for their return.
Nikki Haley’s Anti-Trans Rhetoric Falls Flat in New Hampshire
Earlier in her stump speech, for instance, Haley declared she was “unapologetically pro-life,” a staple GOP applause line that received a muted response from the crowd.
It distilled a key challenge for the former South Carolina governor, who wants to appeal to Republicans and independents turned off by Donald Trump but is leveraging other issues, like abortion and all things “woke,” to maintain her credibility with the party base.
Bad News for Russia
Former Moscow Officials Reveal Why They’re Laughing at Putin Now
Citizens of Russia have become the captive audience of a dystopian “comedy club” run by the government, according to some former Moscow officials.
And the Kremlin, it appears, is not in on the joke.
Putin's remarks were widely mocked on social media, while experts at Russia’s own State Atomic Agency said that “the story with the approaching cloud is somehow exaggerated.”
The outpouring of ridiculous rhetoric in Moscow has gotten so out of hand that some former Kremlin insiders have resorted to creating memes inspired by the words and actions of Russian officials.
Wagner Boss Admits War Is ‘Not Shaping Up’ in Russia’s Favor
Russia’s shadow army boss has predicted Ukraine will win the war, saying that so far it’s “not shaping up” in Russia’s favor.
Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin made the claims in a lengthy new video interview released by his press service Wednesday.
The war, he said, “was launched for the sake of denazification, and we made Ukraine a nation that is known throughout the whole world. They are like the Greeks or Romans in a period of prosperity. As for the ‘demilitarization,’ if they had 500 tanks at the beginning of the [war], they now have 5,000 of them. If 20,000 fighters skillfully fought then, now there are 400,000. How did we demilitarize it? It turns out that on the contrary, we, who the hell knows how, have militarized Ukraine.”
Prigozhin says war in Ukraine has backfired, warns of Russian revolution
Fresh off his claim of victory in capturing the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, Russian mercenary boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin warned that Moscow’s brutal war could plunge Russia into turmoil similar to the 1917 revolution unless its detached, wealthy elites become more directly committed to the conflict.
Citing public anger at the lavish lifestyles of Russia’s rich and powerful, Prigozhin warned that their homes could be stormed by people with “pitchforks.” He singled out Ksenia Shoigu, the daughter of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who was spotted vacationing in Dubai with her fiancé, Alexei Stolyarov, a fitness blogger.
Jan. 6 Rioter Who Reclined in Pelosi’s Office Given Sentence of More Than 4 Years
An Arkansas man who became notorious for putting his foot on a desk in Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s office during the attack on the Capitol by supporters of President Donald J. Trump was sentenced on Wednesday to four and a half years in prison.
The man, Richard “Bigo” Barnett, was found guilty at a trial in January of eight criminal offenses, including interfering with law enforcement during a civil disorder and obstructing the certification of the 2020 election that took place at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
Oath Keepers leader Stewart Rhodes sentenced to 18 years in prison for plot to keep Trump in power
Stewart Rhodes, the founder and leader of the Oath Keepers, was sentenced to 18 years in prison on Thursday for leading a far-reaching plot to keep then-President Donald Trump in power after he lost the 2020 election.
The sentences are the first handed down in over a decade for seditious conspiracy.
“What we absolutely cannot have is a group of citizens who – because they did not like the outcome of an election, who did not believe the law was followed as it should be – foment revolution,” District Judge Amit Mehta said before handing down the sentence. “That is what you did.”
Oath Keepers member and Army veteran sentenced to 8.5 years in prison for January 6
Jessica Watkins, an Army veteran and member of the far-right Oath Keepers, was sentenced Friday to 8.5 years in prison for participating in a plot to disrupt the certification of the 2020 presidential election culminating in the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol.
Judge Amit Mehta said Watkins’ efforts at the Capitol were “aggressive” and said she did not have immediate remorse, even though she has since apologized.
“Your role that day was more aggressive, more assaultive, more purposeful than perhaps others’. And you led others to fulfill your purposes,” Mehta said. “And there was not in the immediate aftermath any sense of shame or contrition, just the opposite. Your comments were celebratory and lacked a real sense of the gravity of that day and your role in it.”
Other Good News
A Paralyzed Man Can Walk Naturally Again With Brain and Spine Implants
Gert-Jan Oskam was living in China in 2011 when he was in a motorcycle accident that left him paralyzed from the hips down. Now, with a combination of devices, scientists have given him control over his lower body again.
“For 12 years I’ve been trying to get back my feet,” Mr. Oskam said in a press briefing on Tuesday. “Now I have learned how to walk normal, natural.”
In a study published on Wednesday in the journal Nature, researchers in Switzerland described implants that provided a “digital bridge” between Mr. Oskam’s brain and his spinal cord, bypassing injured sections. The discovery allowed Mr. Oskam, 40, to stand, walk and ascend a steep ramp with only the assistance of a walker. More than a year after the implant was inserted, he has retained these abilities and has actually showed signs of neurological recovery, walking with crutches even when the implant was switched off.
On the Lighter Side
I am so lucky and so proud to be in this with all of you 💓💚💛🧡✊🏻✊🏽✊🏾✊🏿✊❤️🧡💛💚