It appears the most likely “no labels” candidate is none other than our good friend Joe Manchin.
Manchin notes he has had a 12-year relationship with No Labels, the centrist political group that is trying to gain access to the ballot in all 50 states to open a path for a third-party candidate to run for president.
Why does this help Joe Biden?
Despite being a Democrat, the core Democratic base is not voting for Manchin. It’s more likely that he attracts never-Trump Republicans. But that’s not important. Where it really matters is in the ELECTORAL COLLEGE.
Let’s see the Electoral College work for us for a change.
Does Manchin win WV? Even if he gets 36% that could be enough. That takes 4 EVs off the board in a likely very close election. Removing those 4 Evs makes the hill a lot steeper for Trump.
What happens in other states?
Pennsylvania — WVs neighbor, Manchin is well-known in those border areas, and likely sucks the most votes away from Trump here, making PA nearly impossible to win.
NC, GA, VA — These neighboring states, two of which are critical swing states, will also likely experience a greater draw. Manchin only needs to get 5-6% in these states to drastically interfere with the vote counts — most likely taking a few more from Trump than Biden. Trump is likely not looking for 11,000 votes in GA if this is the case — he’s looking for 35,000.
Other swing states — AZ, NV, WI, MI… only 1-2 pts that Trump would have had likely makes these states unwinnable for him.
Other red states — Places like UT, where Trump is unpopular (hell, the third party got significant votes in 2020), AK, where they are into mavericks and independents (and like Manchin’s pro-fossil fuels stance)
It would be good for Civics to poll WV for a Biden-Trump-Manchin race to see just what we’re dealing with here. If indeed Manchin would win his home state (and maybe poll Utah while we’re at it) and takes red EVs off the board… maybe we should be encouraging this?