The Guardian reports that the UK is leading an effort to assemble an international coalition that could supply mid-range cruise missiles to Ukraine.
International Fund for Ukraine (IFU) is a UK-led initiative for purchasing arms on behalf of Ukraine, with the UK, Norway, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Iceland and Lithuania having contributed over $650M. The IFU issued a tender seeking bids on “long-range strike” weapons, with the following characteristics:
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Missiles or Rockets with a range 100-300km; land, sea or air launch. Payload 20-490kg.
Desirable requirements:
- Low Probability of Intercept (LPI)
- Includes Mission Planning Capability
- Assured navigation (with hardened Global Navigation Satellite System capability) in the face of advanced countermeasures and EM spectrum denial
- Air defence penetration methods to increase probability of successful strike
- Technical Readiness Level of at least 8
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It’s believed their focus is on providing the Storm Shadow, one of the few non-US manufactured, readily available weapon systems that would meet all these requirements. The Storm Shadow is a cruise missile originally developed by the joint British/French Matra BAe Dynamics company.
The Storm Shadow is a mid-range cruise missile, with the likely-to-be-chosen export variant having a maximum range of around 250~300km. It is a low-observability missile with advanced guidance characteristics, allowing the missile to closely hug the ground as it flies towards its target to minimize chances of radar discovery.
The Storm Shadow can be fired from low altitudes, which is very important as Ukrainian aircraft are unlikely to be able to fly at high altitudes anywhere close to the front. High-flying aircraft are more readily visible to radar, so Ukrainian pilots survive the gauntlet of Russian Surface to Air Missile (SAM) batteries by flying barely above treetop levels.
The missile is designed to descend rapidly down toward the ground upon firing to reduce its radar profile, so no range is lost by choosing to fire the missile at low altitudes.
It carries a 450kg BROACH warhead, which has an explosive force 5 times as powerful as a HIMARS launched GMLRS rocket. However, its capabilities go further, as the BROACH warhead contains a shaped charge, allowing it to penetrate deep into structures, making it more effective at destroying armored bunkers, large buildings or bridges.
The Storm Shadow also has TERPROM terminal infrared guidance systems, meaning that it would be highly resistant to GPS jamming—a tactic Russia has been using to try to limit damage from guided munitions.
The UK has ordered an estimated 700-1000 Storm Shadow missiles and has only used a few dozen, thus should have an inventory numbering in the 600-900 range. The missiles are planned to be phased out in favor of the next generation FC/ASW cruise missile by around 2030, thus the UK and other operators may be more willing to part with their inventory.
The main drawback of the Storm Shadow is its subsonic speed, flying around Mach 0.8~0.9. This is comparable to the Tomahawk cruise missile, and quite similarly the risks of interception are mitigated by its extremely low altitude flight characteristics that make it more challenging to detect or intercept.
However, Royal Air Force doctrine on deploying the Storm Shadow suggests carefully selecting a flight route that avoids overpassing enemy air defenses as much as possible before reaching the target.
There appear to be three major hurdles to clear to make deliveries in quantities that could make a difference happen.
- US Approval
- French Approval
- Cost
The first point appears to have already been cleared. The US has long taken a position opposing giving long-range missiles to Ukraine. If the Pentagon leak papers are to be believed, US intelligence fears that if the US provides long-range strike capabilities to Ukraine and Ukraine hits strategic targets in Russian territory, China may increase its military aid to Russia and become a more active participant in the war.
The Guardian notes that analysts believe it would be unlikely that given the US/UK strategic partnership’s nature, the UK Ministry of Defense would override US wishes in the provision of weapon systems to Ukraine.
Thus, given that a tender was placed, it’s highly likely that the Biden Administration has already green-lit the project. However, the US may be avoiding direct involvement for the reasons outlined in the Pentagon Leak.
The second point appears like it could potentially be a major hurdle, or no hurdle at all. President Macron of France has been a somewhat erratic partner to Ukraine, sometimes seemingly recklessly siding with Russia on diplomatic positions (suggesting the need for premature negotiations), but also France has been generous at times, providing Caesar self-propelled artillery, AMX-10 RC scout tanks, and being a major participant in the training programs for Ukrainian soldiers.
There’s been no mention of French intentions to veto the transfer of British Storm Shadow missiles, but as a British/French joint development project, France holds a presumable veto over the transfers. Obtaining French approval for the project will likely be necessary.
It’s presently unclear how big a hurdle such approval represents.
Finally, there’s the matter of cost. Storm Shadow missiles are extremely expensive munitions, costing $2.5M each.
The IFU is presently in the process of procuring a wide array of equipment for the Ukrainian offensive including armored bridges, armored mine rollers/ploughs, Main Battle Tank transportation trucks, artillery ammunition, and air defense missiles. All high-priority items that are clear present needs for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).
Reportedly, the IFU has already spent $250M of its $650M funding, thus $2.5M missiles would take big chunks out of its remaining funding capacity. Even just 50 missiles ($125M) would represent nearly a third of its remaining funds.
It seems likely that channeling US funds to procure long-range missiles may represent diplomatic difficulties, so figuring out a way to replenish IFU funding or minimize the costs of procurement of Storm Shadow munitions would be a key necessity.
However, even a few dozen of these weapons may represent a strategic threat to Russia, particularly if Ukraine can advance toward the Crimean border this Summer.
To recapture Crimea, Ukraine could use even just a few dozen of these powerful weapons.
