While the wheels of justice grind slowly in America, voters are under no such constraints to render judgment and fully half of them believe Donald Trump has committed crimes for which he should go to prison.
That was among the most striking findings of this month's co-branded Daily Kos/Civiqs poll, conducted after Trump was federally indicted for mishandling classified documents. Among registered voters, 50% concluded Trump is a criminal who should do jail time, 42% believe Trump shouldn't go to jail, and 8% are unsure.
The data suggests that Trump, right out of the gate, could have a ceiling of 50%, which is theoretically interesting, although he fell short of reaching that threshold in both 2020 (47%) and 2016 (46%).
Still, Trump is underwater on the question of criminality/jail time with some interesting demographics:
Men: 50% yes, 41% no (-9 points)
College graduates: 56% yes - 36% no (-20 points)
Hispanic voters: 64% yes - 28% no (-36 points)
Voters aged 50-64: 54% yes, 39% no (-15 points)
Voters aged 65+: 55% yes, 39% no (-16 points)
In 2020, for instance, Trump won men by 2 points, lost college graduates by 14 points, lost Latino voters by 21 points, and won voters aged 50-64 and 65+ by 6 and 4 points, respectively. Older voters, in particular, appear to be incensed by Trump’s reckless handling of national secrets, despite their support for him in prior elections.
Once more, the data is likely to worsen for Trump over time, as more indictments drop and more details of his alleged criminality come to light.
The survey also found Trump beating Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis among GOP voters in a head-to-head matchup by 20 points, 47% - 27%.
All of that is much-needed good news for Democrats in a poll that also demonstrates how perfectly divided the country remains.
Voters are less than enthusiastic about voting again in 2024 for President Joe Biden and Trump, with Trump actually rating better than Biden on the questions of people being both more or less interested in voting for them next year.
2024 Enthusiasm — Biden v. Trump (VIA CIVIQS)
|more interested in voting for [X candidate] than in 2020
|less interested in voting for [X candidate] than in 2020
|feel the same about voting for [X candidate] as did in 2020
Asked whether voters would cast a ballot for the candidate if they won the '24 nomination, Biden and Trump drew almost identical support, with 46% saying they would definitely/probably vote for Biden compared to 45% saying they would definitely/probably vote for Trump, and 50% saying they would definitely vote for someone else in both instances.
WOULD YOU VOTE FOR THE CANDIDATE IF THEY ARE NOMINATED? (VIA CIVIQS)
|PROBABLY VOTE FOR SOMEONE ELSE
|DEFINITELY SOMEONE ELSE
In Civiqs daily tracking, Trump's favorables are currently the lowest they've been since he won the 2016 election: 36%. Trump has never fully recovered since taking a hit following the early August FBI search of Mar-a-Lago and suffering another blow after the GOP midterm debacle.
Biden is besting Trump by several points in terms of both favorables (39%) and job approval (39%).
Bottom line: The country continues to be incredibly divided and, to the extent that Trump continues to distinguish himself as a serial criminal, Biden and Democrats only stand to benefit in a potential rematch that promises to be incredibly close.
Donald Trump is facing even more legal jeopardy and the sharks in the Republican Party seem to sense there is some blood in the water. Chris Christie has made his campaign all about going directly at Trump, and Ron DeSantis seems to be closer and closer to becoming completely isolated from the field.