UPDATE: Saturday, Jun 24, 2023 · 8:40:07 PM +00:00 · Peter Olandt
Wait.. What????? Prigozhin just called this off? How is that possible? I knew script writing would be poor with the Hollywood writers strike, but this plot twist doesn’t make any sense.
I’m finding this incredibly hard to believe. Prigozhin marches on Moscow, fails, and gets to walk away? And Putin is good with this? He’s good with someone attempting a coup but then gets to walk away? He doesn’t think that will make him look weak?
And Prigozhin isn’t worried about eating a 2,000 lb bomb the next time he’s in a known location?
The most violent genocidal thugs in the world today who were fighting each other decided to settle their differences by talking with each other?
And mostly I’m sad this isn’t the end of the Ukraine war. It certainly has helped Ukraine, but this could have been the end.
So with Prigozhin apparently taking over the Russian military command center in Rostov on Don without word of a fight, he now sits on the most important logistics hub for supplying southern Ukraine. Belgorod was important for the north (and still contributes some) but everything going to Crimea over the Kerch Bridge needs to go through Rostov-on-Don. Donetsk City is also supplied from Rostov-on-Don. There is another rail connection further north supplying Luhansk. When I get a little more time I’ll need to construct this particular rail map (I’ve been wanting to make it but didn’t think it necessary until now).
With this control of supply and the apparent bloodless take-over of it Prigozhin is the defacto commander of all troops downstream of it. Why? If you are fighting near Tokmak, who are you going to listen to? Shoigu, or the guy sending you artillery shells? This placing himself upon the path of critical war supplies also puts Shoigu (and apparently now Putin as well) in a very difficult spot. They have to keep supplying Prigozhin or risk losing all those troops in Ukraine!
The deeper this gets the more likely Russia will either need to retreat from Ukraine or it will get routed there. A quick coup may not affect things much. If it’s over quickly Russian forces can probably hold out over a hiccup or three in supplies. After all, they’re sort of used to crappy supply distribution. But if the coup continues, sooner or later every unit will need to commit to one side or the other and Russian troops in Ukraine will not be able to survive if that goes on for too long of a time.
And this whole thing is quite possibly socially engineered by Ukraine. In May as the battle of Bakhmut was winding down, I wrote about the possible Ukrainian strategy in “In order for the defense of Bakhmut to be successful, it had to fall. Very, very, slowly”. I probably got the timing of things a little off, but the general gist was that the Ukrainians allowed Wagner to have success in small amounts while holding the regular Russian army to no gains in order stoke division and jealousy between Wagner and the army. If this was the Ukrainian plan, it’s currently succeeding beyond their wildest dreams.