Interesting developments concerning Ukraine’s bridgehead across the Dnipro. It’s very good news if true, and I think it is. Furthermore, this may be extremely good news.
There are been consistent reports, with geolocated video, that Ukraine has established a bridgehead adjacent to the Antonovskiy bridge over the Dnipro river. That’s the bridge supplying the city of Kherson which Ukraine took out with HIMARS rocket artillery last August. To refresh your memory:
The Antonovskiy bridge with 16 holes. Many more were yet to come.
YouTube channels “War in Ukraine” and “Denys Davydov” (see below) both have reports from June 27th that the bridgehead is expanding and strengthening.
Russian counterattacks have suffered from typical disorganization. Apparently neither Russian helicopters nor ground support jets are able to operate close enough to be effective. Russian ground forces have also been ineffective and have suffered losses, including some from “friendly fire.” YouTuber channels have videos.
“Reporting from Ukraine” video link
Two days ago Russian channels reported the Ukrainian force was 50 soldiers. Yesterday (the 27th) Russian bloggers reported it had increased to 100. Multiple S-300 installations on the West (Ukrainian) side of the river protect it from aircraft and an EW installation apparently is foiling Russian drones.
The fog of war prevents us from knowing exactly what is going on here. Perhaps it is a minor distraction. If so, it’s good news. But maybe…
Just maybe Ukraine intends to mount a major attack here. Russian defenses in the area are in disarray and ineffective due to the draining of the reservoir. Since Russia had been counting on the reservoir as a formidable barrier, defenses lines on the east bank were never all that great. And that bridge! It’s loss caused Russia to be unable to supply Kherson, and the city had to be abandoned. The converse thought is that If it can be repaired, enough material could flow over it to mount a significant offensive. Once enough territory has been liberated on the far side, multiple supply lines can be established over the mud flats and the now diminished river.
There is just one span which has been thoroughly trashed, and the supporting columns are intact. I can’t help but wonder if NATO and/or Ukrainian engineers have a method up their sleeve to temporarily span that damaged section.
One thing for sure: if Ukraine can maintain the bridgehead and mount an attack from there, their forces will be behind the great majority of the Russian defensive lines. It will be time for Leopards, Bradleys, AMX-10s and Challengers to run free.
Link to Denys Davydov’s video
EDIT: It may be time for me to explain that I am not captain of anything except useless information. My preferred user name on social media was “Factoid,” but that name was already taken. Thus, I prepended captain.
I can claim a bit of background in military strategy and hardware: I was an electronic warfare engineer (civilian) with Naval Aviation for 11+ years.