Since 1992, Russia has maintained a garrison in the narrow strip of land between Moldova and Ukraine known as Transnistria under the pretext that it is protecting the ethnic Russian minority there.
That might be about to end.
Attending a European summit in the Moldovan capital of Chisinau, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy offered/threatened to attack the Russian garrison of about 1,500 and return Transnistria to Moldova.
This is an interesting development that makes you wonder what has changed recently, because the status quo has been maintained throughout the war with Russia.
First, Ukraine can’t just invade Transnistria since it is internationally recognized as Moldovan sovereign territory. They need Moldova to ask for help and so far Moldova hasn’t been willing to go there.
Moldova doesn't have much of a military to speak of. It has, for all these years, left things alone so as not to piss off the Russians. It has also had governments and factions that leaned toward Russia.
Now it has a West-leaning government -- that has had to contend with the possibility of a Russian-backed coup -- that is keen on joining the EU and getting off the bottom of Europe’s economic ladder. And the fact that the summit was held in Moldova says a lot about the EU’s interest in supporting Moldova.
But EU membership isn’t going to happen as long as the Transnistria issue is unresolved. Same with possible NATO membership down the road. So it might be time to bring things to a head.
One of the big risks of this is the massive ammunition depot in Cobasna, which is in the northern part of Transnistria. This is a leftover from the Soviet days and much of it is expired stuff and probably mostly just dangerous to handle.
It is one of, if not THE biggest ammo dumps in all of Europe, about 20k tons. If it were to all explode, it would make one hell of a crater. Fortunately it is more likely to cook off over several days but it would still be a threat to anything nearby.
Another risk is the possibility of the Russians in Transnistria shelling Chisinau.
One of the benefits of a successful operation to take Transnistria would be to allow Ukraine to redeploy its troops from the Transnistrian border.
War criminal/blogger Igor Strelkov says that Transnistria is lost if Ukraine decides to move.
Transnistria. Girkin says that Transnistria is doomed, the "Ukrainian Nazis and Moldovan- excuse me, Romanian, nationalists can and will take it". Transnistria could have been taken as far back as last Summer, but Girkin believes that the Ukrainians refrained from attacking it as blackmail to ensure the Grain deal. However, in the long term, Transnistria and the Russian garrison there are doomed.
The president of Moldova wasn’t too keen on Hungarian fascist wannabe PM Viktor Orban wanting to kiss her hand at the summit.
Makes you wish you were a fly on the wall for this conversation.
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The railyard near Melitopol was targeted by Ukraine.
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The port at Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov coast took a hammering from Storm Shadow.
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The driver of the car that passed him is one lucky dude.
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Russia still doesn’t have control of the border region near Belgorod.
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More careless smoking.
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This should put a dent in Swiss arms sales. Who will want to buy them if the Swiss are going to be assholes about transferring them?
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It’s Patron!
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A reminder of the tragedy of Russia’s war.
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And finally, some notes of hope.