Greg Sargent/The Washington Post:
The odds of a Trump coup attempt in 2024 are dropping fast
The Supreme Court’s decision in Moore v. Harper on Tuesday is a major reprieve for American democracy. By rejecting the radical idea that state legislatures have quasi-unlimited power to determine how elections are run, the court made it harder for lawmakers to engage in the shenanigans that Donald Trump encouraged to overturn his 2020 reelection loss.
But the decision is better seen in a broader context: It’s one of many recent developments that show our democratic system is fortifying itself on multiple levels, unexpectedly reducing the odds of a rerun of Trump’s efforts in 2024.
Milan Singh/”Slow Boring” on Substack:
What is “independent state legislature theory”?
In a nutshell, the idea is that state legislatures have sole authority over federal election-related matters. ISL fans cite two parts of the United States Constitution supporting their position. The first is Article I, Section 4, Clause 1, referred to as the Elections Clause, which reads as follows (emphasis added):
The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations, except as to the Places of chusing Senators.
The second section is Article II, Section 1, Clause 2 — the Electors Clause — which reads as follows (again, emphasis added):
Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector.
Proponents of ISL argue that the phrase “the Legislature thereof” means strictly the state legislature — not the governor, not an independent commission, not the state judiciary — gets to decide how elections are run and how presidential electors are appointed, no ifs, ands, or buts. Furthermore, the argument goes that in the event of a dispute between the legislature’s actions and the state constitution, the results of a ballot initiative, state courts, or other elected officials, the matter is to be resolved by federal courts in favor of the legislature.
This piece was originally published by Milan the Researcher on September 17, 2022. The Supreme Court ruled in Moore v. Harper this week, holding that the independent state legislature doctrine was not good law. We’re re-running this article, with some updates in light of the decision, to provide context on the legal question at hand for our readers. Enjoy!]
Diego Mendoza/Semafor:
What it means: SCOTUS rules affirmative action is unconstitutional
- The ruling will leave many open questions about how universities will fashion race neutral workarounds to maintain campus diversity because "there is no substitute for race-based affirmative action," Liz King at the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights told Politico. Better off schools could be expected to prioritize low-income ZIP code applicants, but states that have already banned affirmative action have struggled to maintain demographically representative classrooms, and in some cases have seen minority applications drop.
- White and Asian students most benefit from admission to highly-selective public schools where affirmative action is banned, a Washington Post analysis found. In some of these states, Black and brown student bodies are up to 29 points below the state's demographic makeup of their racial groups.
- A national campaign to fund local Black tech hubs and workshops is crucial without affirmative action, writes Brooking’s Rodney Sampson. With a powerful tech sector, one way to circumvent a likely drop in Black college graduates is to start building a new generation of Black tech entrepreneurs.
- Historical Black colleges and universities (HBCUs) will likely see applications soar in the upcoming cycles, Morehouse College President David Thomas argues, adding that the ruling will see more and more Black students rejected from selective schools.
Joyce Vance/”Civil Discourse” on Substack:
History Rhymes Again
The End of Affirmative Action
Just over 60 years ago, Alabama’s segregationist governor, George Wallace, made his infamous stand in the schoolhouse door, barring the path against court-ordered integration at the state’s flagship university. It was June 11, 1963. Wallace, in his inaugural address, had promised voters “segregation now, segregation tomorrow, segregation forever.”
But Wallace’s defiance failed in the face of the rule of law. He ultimately stepped aside to permit the first two Black students at the university to enroll.
[…]
Affirmative action is not about unfair advantage. It is about leveling the playing field in the face of historical discrimination. And despite what the Supreme Court said this morning in a pair of cases ending the use of affirmative action in admissions policies, Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard and Students for Fair Admissions v. University of North Carolina, our playing field is not level yet.
YouGov, from June 21:
What role do Americans think race should play in college admissions?
As the Supreme Court prepares to rule on a series of cases involving affirmative action, new polling by the Economist/YouGov explores how Americans feel about the role of race in college admissions. The poll finds that considering race at all in the admissions process is viewed as unacceptable by 65% of Americans, while 25% say race should be allowed to be considered among other factors. About half of Democrats (48%) and Black Americans (47%) reject allowing colleges to consider race in admissions decisions.
Most Americans (59%) think that the Supreme Court is very or somewhat likely to decide against affirmative action in college admissions, including majorities of white (61%) and Black (57%) Americans.
Americans are divided on another approach toward equalizing educational opportunities by race: 51% say state universities should be required to automatically accept all applicants in the top 10% of their high school class, while 49% say state universities should not be required to accept any applicant, instead evaluating each applicant individually. Majorities of Democrats (56%) and Black Americans (63%) support the top 10% acceptance approach.
ABC News:
Top Trump campaign aide identified as key individual in classified docs indictment: Sources
Susie Wiles, a trusted adviser, is helping lead Trump's reelection effort.
The alleged exchange between Trump and Wiles is the second of two instances detailed by prosecutors in the indictment showing how Trump allegedly disclosed classified information in private meetings after leaving the White House. The first was a July 2021 audio recording, obtained by ABC News earlier this week, in which Trump is heard showing people what he describes as a "secret" and "highly confidential" document relating to Iran.
ABC News has reported the meeting involved people who were helping Trump's former chief of staff, Mark Meadows, with his memoir, according to sources. Smith's team has spoken to the meeting's attendees, which included the writers helping Meadows with his book and at least two aides to Trump, according to sources.
Will Trump pay Wiles’ legal fees? Doubtful, even if he says he will (he’s a liar). And much of the PAC money Wiles manages will be siphoned off for Trump’s own legal fees.
Remind me why she works for him? In any case, the pressure on her is going to be enormous.
From Cliff Schecter: