Russian forces remain unlikely to cause an intentional “accident” at the ZNPP, and Russia is likely continuing to use the threat of an intentional radiological incident to attempt to constrain Ukrainian counteroffensive actions and Western support for Ukraine ahead of the upcoming NATO summit.
June 29 (Reuters) - Satellite images of a military base southeast of the Belarus capital Minsk appear to show new facilities set up in recent days, suggesting the swift construction of a base for Wagner, the Russian mercenary company behind an abortive mutiny.
Russian media have reported that Wagner, whose leader Yevgeny Prigozhin arrived in Belarus on Tuesday, could set up a new base at a vacant military facility near the town of Asipovichi, about 90 km (50 miles) from Minsk.
Images captured by the European Space Agency's Sentinel 2 satellites on June 27 show rows of long structures in the nearby village of Tsel, in a field which had appeared empty on June 14.
www.reuters.com/...
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says an alleged Russian agent involved in the deadly attack in Kramatorsk will be charged with treason.
Those helping Russia destroy lives deserve the "maximum penalty", he said.
Twelve people, including three teenagers, were killed in Tuesday's missile strike on a popular restaurant.
Ukraine said the man, a resident of Kramatorsk, sent video footage of the restaurant to the Russian military hours before it was destroyed.
Fourteen-year-old twin sisters Yuliya and Anna Aksenchenko and a 17-year-old girl were among those killed.
"Russian missiles stopped the beating of the hearts of two angels," Kramatorsk city council's education department said in a statement.
At least 60 others were injured, including Colombian nationals and a leading Ukrainian writer.
On Wednesday, Ukrainian security services released a photo of a local man that they arrested, describing him as a Russian agent.
Speaking in his nightly address, Mr Zelensky explained that the country's security services had worked alongside police special forces to detain the suspect - who may face life imprisonment.
www.bbc.com/...
A court in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg on June 30 sentenced antiwar activist Aleksei Gashev to 10 years in prison for throwing Molotov cocktails at a military recruitment center in the city of Perm last year with his colleague Mikhail Sokolov. The court found Gashev guilty of treason, being a member of a terrorist group, and conducting a terrorist act. Sokolov was sentenced to 11 years in prison on the same charges last week. Since Russia launched its ongoing unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, dozens of military recruitment centers have been targeted by arsonists. To read the original story by RFE/RL's Russian Service, click here.
Russia’s nuclear-storage system is anchored by 12 central storage sites, such as Voronezh-45, and about 35 base-level storage facilities, says Pavel Podvig, a nuclear security and arms-control expert who leads the Russian Nuclear Forces Project. Under Russian doctrine, he says, weapons are stored separately from the planes, missiles, and systems that deliver them. “The storage sites are reasonably well-guarded, and I don’t see why Wagner would divert resources to get something they cannot use and that can get them in serious trouble,” Podvig says.
time.com/…
What has been said about Russia's military losses?
President Putin referred to "fallen hero pilots" in a statement on 26 June. However, he didn't go into detail about the number of casualties or aircraft lost.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the boss of the Wagner mercenary group, said his forces had hit Russian aircraft which "were dropping bombs and launching rocket attacks" in a bid to stop their advance towards Moscow.
He voiced regret for having had to shoot down Russian planes.
Some channels on Telegram, a messaging app popular with military bloggers, have made similar claims about losses.
What losses can be confirmed?
BBC Verify has looked at dozens of videos taken during the fighting between Wagner troops and Russian forces.
This had been widely reported on various social media channels as an Ilyushin Il-22 - a valuable aircraft for the Russian armed forces to lose.
- Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the frontline on June 30.
- Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi stated on June 30 that Ukrainian forces continue to advance in eastern and southern Ukraine despite lacking essential resources.
- The Russian information space is reacting disproportionately to the Russian military’s failure to drive a small Ukrainian force from east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.
-
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian forces and officials are gradually leaving the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) possibly in preparation for an intentional “accident” at the facility.
-
Russian forces remain unlikely to cause an intentional “accident” at the ZNPP, and Russia is likely continuing to use the threat of an intentional radiological incident to attempt to constrain Ukrainian counteroffensive actions and Western support for Ukraine ahead of the upcoming NATO summit.
- The Wagner Group is reportedly still actively recruiting personnel within Russia, although it is unclear if new recruits are signing Wagner contracts or military contracts with the MoD.
- The Wagner Group reportedly will operate three large field camps in Belarus and an apparent Belarusian milblogger reported that Wagner Group personnel will deploy to Asipovichy, Belarus, soon.
- A Kremlin-affiliated news outlet reported that the Wagner Group will continue operating in Africa, although the details of its operations remain unclear.
- Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin reportedly dissolved his domestic media company Patriot.
- Russian and Ukrainian forces continued to engage in battles along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
- Ukrainian forces continued to counterattack and reportedly made some gains in the Bakhmut area.
- Ukrainian and Russian forces continued to skirmish on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and Ukrainian forces advanced as of June 30.
- Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.
- Russian authorities continue efforts to improve monetary and educational benefits to servicemen in order to retain loyalty and incentivize military service.
- Russian officials and occupation authorities are attempting to explain away the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.
understandingwar.org/...
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian and Ukrainian forces continued to engage in combat along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on June 30. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks in the Novoselivske direction (15km northwest of Svatove), near Bilohorivka (13km south of Kreminna), and Rozdolivka (31km southwest of Kreminna).[51] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian counterattacks against Novoselivske, Bilohorivka, and in the direction of Kuzmyne (3km southwest of Kreminna).[52]...Another Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces launched an offensive in an unspecified area in the Lyman direction and that Russian VDV forces are maintaining their defense.[56]
understandingwar.org/...
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts on June 30. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces achieved unspecified partial success along the Levadne-Pryyutne line (up to 20km southwest of Velyka Novosilka) and consolidated on newly reached lines.[69] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian elements of the Eastern Grouping of Forces repelled Ukrainian attacks south and southwest of Velyka Novosilka.[70] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation deputy Vladimir Rogov claimed that Russian forces counterattacked from Staromayorske (9km south of Velyka Novosilka) towards Rivnopil (10km southwest of Velyka Novosilka).[71]
understandingwar.org/...
The threat of nuclear war hangs over the Russia-Ukraine crisis (March 2022)
Having let Russia deploy tactical #nuclear weapons in #Belarus, Lukashenko ought to worry about Sergey Karaganov's proposal that #Russia use nukes against West. Were Russia to do so, Lukashenko quite likely has made Belarus target for nuclear retaliation.
Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko’s role in ending the June 24 military mutiny in Russia undoubtedly scored him points with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Still, Lukashenko should worry about another aspect of his closeness to Putin and Russia.
Russian foreign policy expert Sergey Karaganov recently called, in essence, for Russia to launch a nuclear war against the West. Fortunately, it appears more sober minds prevail in Moscow. However, should Karaganov’s idea gain traction in the Kremlin, Lukashenko should understand that he has made Belarus a prime nuclear target.
Karaganov, honorary chair of a Moscow think tank, wrote in mid-June that Russia needed to lower the threshold for use of nuclear weapons in order to break Western support for Ukraine. If the West did not back down, Karaganov opined that “we will have to hit [with nuclear weapons] a group of targets in a number of countries,” adding that, if Russia did not use “God’s weapon” for this, “not only may Russia perish, but most likely the whole of human civilization will end.”
www.brookings.edu/…
MARTIN: Why would it be extraordinary that they would want to avert mutually assured destruction?
KAPLAN: It's been kind of assumed that if somebody uses a nuclear weapon first, we would fire a nuclear weapon back. And what happened - there was a second game, and this is with the Principals Committee of the NSC. And somebody brought up the same idea. Let's just keep fighting conventionally and shame Russia. And everybody else around the table said this would be a disaster. The credibility of the United States with all of our alliances is that we would respond to a nuclear weapon with nuclear weapons. This would completely destroy NATO if we didn't fire back in kind. And then the question became, well, where do we fire these weapons? And they came up with AN idea, well, let's just fire off a couple of tac nukes at military targets in Belarus.
MARTIN: A strong Russian ally, but still...
KAPLAN: Yeah. Even though Belarus had nothing to do with the war game in question. And then the game was called to an end. Nobody wanted to play what happens next? And, you know, Rachel, this is the dangerous thing that we would be getting into. It's interesting. People have been writing about nuclear strategy since a few weeks after Hiroshima and Nagasaki. People have written out scenarios. Despite this, for decades, nobody has the slightest idea what would happen after one nuclear weapon is used. Even if there is the finest tuned intentions of keeping the war limited and not hitting population centers and so forth, the effects of nuclear weapons - what they can do to communication systems, to satellite perceptions, the probability of miscalculation, misperception, of things going generally awry - are much greater than any, you know, think tank board playing war game has ever been able to anticipate.
MARTIN: What I also hear you saying is that there's almost an emotional or psychological quality. You can't replicate it in a war game. That what it would take to actually push a button like that is something you can't really know until you're confronted with the real-world scenario.
wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/…