2Q Fundraising: Daily Kos Elections is pleased to unveil our new charts rounding up second-quarter fundraising numbers for the House and Senate. Our data includes figures for every incumbent (excluding those who've said they're not seeking re-election) and notable announced or potential candidates.
These reports, among many other things, offer us some clues about which incumbents are raising the kinds of money that signal that they plan to run for reelection and which ones aren't. Four sitting senators in particular are still keeping everyone guessing about their plans.
A particularly bright spotlight has long shone on West Virginia's Joe Manchin, who has repeatedly said he'll wait until December to announce what he's doing has even refused to rule out a third-party bid for president. However, his fundraising at least gives Senate Democrats some reason to be optimistic that he'll try to stick around.
Manchin raised $1.2 million during the quarter, which is a big increase from his $240,000 take in the prior three months, and he finished June with $10.8 million in the bank. That quarterly take is similar to his $1.4 million haul during the comparable quarter six years ago, though he ended June of 2017 with a much smaller $3.5 million available.
Manchin also outpaced both of the Republicans running to unseat him: Gov. Jim Justice, who raised $940,000, and Rep. Alex Mooney, who brought in $410,000. Mooney, however, enjoys a $1.5 million to $810,000 cash on hand edge, though the wealthy Justice, who has yet to do any self-funding, could write himself a massive check at any time.
In Arizona, meanwhile, Democrat-turned-independent Kyrsten Sinema likewise doesn't seem to be in a hurry to reveal whether she'll seek a second term. Rep. Ruben Gallego, who had planned to challenge her in the Democratic primary before she left the party, outraised her $3.1 million to $1.6 million during the quarter. The chief sources of their funds differed notably: 56% of Gallego's individual donors gave less than $200 while just 1% of Sinema's did so. But despite Gallego raising more for the second straight quarter, Sinema still maintained a wide $10.8 million to $3.8 million advantage in cash on hand.
The only notable Republican in the race, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, was well behind with $600,000 raised and $340,000 available. Republicans and Democrats alike are all waiting to one 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, whose deliberations have largely frozen the GOP field.
Next door in Utah, Mitt Romney took in only $350,000 and banked $1.6 million ahead of what would likely be a competitive primary for Donald Trump's least-favorite Republican. A confusing tea-leaf in Romney's report indicates he rented his fundraising list consulting firm run by a former aide called Targeted Victory, which paid more than $710,000 for access. If the firm paid cash for the list, that would offer Romney's campaign a sizable infusion. On the other hand, if you were about to start making use of your own fundraising list, would you actually want to rent it to someone else and risk burn-out?
Either way, at least one notable Republican does in fact look to be preparing for a bid: State House Speaker Brad Wilson, who formed what he described an exploratory campaign in April, raised $1 million for his effort over the last three months. Wilson, who says he'll decide whether to run sometime after Sept. 9, self-funded another $1.2 million, and he ended June with $2.1 million on hand. But Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, who has announced he'll try to wrest the nomination from Romney, wasn't so flush: The mayor raised just $170,000 and self-funded another $50,000, leaving him with $210,000 available to spend.
Finally, there's Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who told the New York Times in February that people asking whether he'll seek a fourth term next year should "keep wondering." That's where we still are five months later. The Democratic-aligned independent's fundraising doesn't give us any solid clues about which way he's leaning: Sanders raised only $640,000 this quarter, compared to $1.3 million at this point in his 2018 reelection bid, but his $9.7 million war chest is about twice as large as it was six years ago. And unlike each of his aforementioned colleagues, Sanders would be safe for reelection no matter how much money he raises.