Donald Trump has received a letter from the office of special counsel Jack Smith informing him that he is a target of the Washington, D.C., grand jury investigating attempts to overturn the 2020 election.
This is likely to be followed in the next few days by indictments connected to that case and is a good indication that Smith’s investigation into Trump’s efforts to overturn his loss in the 2020 election through a series of illegal schemes is nearing an end. Trump revealed his target letter in connection with the classified documents case in June just five days before his formal indictment.
Trump claims that the letter was given to him on Sunday night following a speech that was mostly spent deriding Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Trump made the target letter public on Tuesday morning in his traditional manner: as part of an extended rant and fundraising pitch on his failing social media platform. It may be a few days, it may be a few weeks, but from here it’s almost certain that Trump is facing a series of federal criminal indictments for his attempt to steal the 2020 election.
The actual timing of events in June isn’t absolutely clear. Though Trump revealed his target letter on June 8, just five days before being indicted, that letter may have been delivered to him days or weeks earlier.
As ABC News reports, the letter is a sign that charges are imminent, though the nature of those charges is currently unknown.
Smith’s scope of investigation in connection with the 2020 election spans a whole series of schemes:
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Trump’s role in the violence on Jan. 6.
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Trump’s interference in election results through calls made to both state and local officials.
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Trump’s support of false claims of election fraud both in public and in dozens of court cases.
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The effort to replace acting Attorney General Jeffrey Rosen with attorney Jeffrey Clark, who would then issue false statements claiming that election fraud had been detected to justify halting the countering of electors.
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The whole elaborate Jan. 6 scheme coordinated by attorney John Eastman, which included the selection of false electors, outreach to state officials, and efforts to pressure Mike Pence into making false statements about issues with the election.
Some charges, such as incitement to violence, may be doubtful because Supreme Court rulings have placed very specific requirements on the kinds of speech that are considered evidence in such crimes. Unless Smith has previously unseen evidence of Trump being involved with planning actions of the Proud Boys, Oathkeepers, or other groups connected with Jan. 6 violence, charges on this point are unlikely.
The most likely charges are conspiracy to defraud the United States under U.S. code 18 U.S. Code § 371. Many aspects of Trump’s actions, including all of the Jan. 6 scheme coordinated between Eastman and Trump, could easily trigger multiple charges under this section. The grand jury has heard multiple witnesses speak on this topic, including some who were at an infamous meeting in the White House where Michael Flynn and Sidney Powell proposed a military seizure of the voting system.
Trump might also be charged with obstruction of official proceedings for his attempts to prevent Mike Pence from carrying out his duty on Jan. 6. This is a charge that has been leveled against some of the Jan. 6 insurrectionists.
In the classified documents case, Trump was indicted along with his assistant, Walt Nauta. That joint indictment came because they were both charged in a conspiracy to hide some of the classified national defense documents Trump had kept at Mar-a-Lago.
Trump is also likely to have companions in any indictment related to the 2020 election case. In addition to charges against Trump, numerous other advisers, attorneys, and members of his campaign and White House staff are likely to face charges for their roles in the conspiracy.
The New York Times reports that the FBI has seized phones belonging to some Trump advisers. This includes attorney Boris Epshteyn and campaign adviser Mike Roman. Investigators have also seized the phones of Jan. 6 fake electors architect Eastman and would-be attorney general Clark.
Just Security published a model prosecution letter last week suggesting how prosecutors might approach the case against Trump. That letter suggests Trump could face additional charges including witness tampering, and provides a list of those likely to be charged in relation to this case.
Correction: A previous version of this story suggested that Smith had already brought specific charges against Trump. This story has been corrected to clarify that there are no charges.