More missile strikes on Odesa
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 22. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in the Berdyansk (Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast area) and Melitopol directions (western Zaporizhia Oblast).[1] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled 14 Ukrainian attacks south of Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast, and in the Bakhmut area.[2] The Ukrainian General Staff did not publish a situation report about its counteroffensive operations on July 22.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations may soon increase in tempo and that the delay in counteroffensive operations was in part due to limited materiel. Zelensky stated at the Aspen Security Forum on July 21 that Ukrainian forces had plans to launch counteroffensive operations in the spring but that a lack of munitions and military equipment, such as mine-clearing equipment, and continued Ukrainian training abroad necessitated a delay.[3] Zelensky noted that the delay in Ukrainian counteroffensive operations allowed Russian forces to establish minefields and multiple defensive lines.[4] ISW assessed in January 2023 that the provision of Western weapons and materiel to Ukraine has been essential to Ukraine’s previous ability to conduct successful counteroffensive operations and that delays between Western pledges to send higher-end Western systems to Ukraine and the arrival of those systems likely hinder Ukraine’s ability to initiate and sustain large-scale counteroffensive operations.[5] Zelensky stated that counteroffensive operations may soon increase in tempo due to ongoing mine-clearing operations.[6] US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated on July 21 at the Aspen Security Forum that it is too early to draw conclusions about Ukrainian counteroffensive operations and that Ukraine will likely “make a profound difference” on the battlefield as Kyiv commits all of the forces that Ukraine prepared for the counteroffensive.[7]
Ukrainian officials stated on July 22 that Ukraine’s interdiction campaign against Russian military targets in rear areas is successfully degrading Russian logistics and counterbattery capabilities, likely contributing to an asymmetrical attrition gradient in Ukraine’s favor. Ukrainian Chief of the Main Directorate of Missile Troops and Artillery and Unmanned Systems of the General Staff Colonel Serhiy Baranov stated on July 22 that Ukrainian missile and artillery units are responsible for approximately 90 percent of Russian losses.[8] Baranov stated that Ukrainian missile and artillery units have created a long-range “fire fist” thanks to Western high-precision missiles and artillery systems and that Ukrainian strikes are so powerful and accurate that Russian forces can no longer conduct effective counterbattery fire.[9] Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Captain First Rank Nataliya Humenyuk stated on July 22 that Ukrainian attacks on Russian ammunition concentrations in deep rear areas are causing logistical issues for the Russian military.[10] Humenyuk noted that this trend is reflected in decreased Russian shelling in Kherson Oblast, which indicates that Russian forces are experiencing “shell hunger” in the area.[11] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Commander Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi compared Ukraine’s counteroffensive to boxing on July 13 and stated that Ukraine intends to “hold the opponent at arm’s length” in order to avoid close combat because Ukraine can effectively defeat Russian forces from a long distance, likely referencing Ukraine’s continued interdiction campaign in eastern and southern Ukraine.[12] Baranov’s, Humenyuk’s, and Tarnavskyi’s statements suggest that the Ukrainian military is successfully carrying out this interdiction campaign. This campaign is a central aspect of Ukraine’s plan to create an asymmetrical attrition gradient that conserves Ukrainian manpower at the cost of a slower rate of territorial gains, while gradually wearing down Russian manpower and equipment.[13]
www.understandingwar.org/...
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A drone attack on an ammunition depot in Crimea prompted authorities to evacuate everyone within a 3-mile (5km) radius and briefly suspend road traffic on the Kerch Bridge linking the occupied peninsula to Russia on Saturday, the Moscow-installed regional governor said.
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The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said the bridge, which was also temporarily closed earlier this week after an attack on it, “brings war not peace” and is therefore a military target.
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Air defence systems were deployed early on Sunday in repelling another Russian attack on Ukraine’s southern port of Odesa, Oleh Kiper, governor of the Odesa region, said on the Telegram channel, warning people not to film the air combat. Unesco has condemned Russia’s attack on the historic centre of Odesa, which is protected under the World Heritage Convention.
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Russian president Vladimir Putin and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko will meet on Sunday in St Petersburg, the Kremlin said, two days after Moscow warned that any aggression against its neighbour and staunchest ally would be considered an attack on Russia.
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Russia criticised the US after the alleged death of a war correspondent for Russia’s RIA news agency after what was claimed to have been the use of cluster bombs near the frontline in Ukraine’s southeastern Zaporizhzhia region. Moscow called it “a heinous, premeditated crime” committed by western powers and Kyiv, vowing a “response” against those to blame.
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Russia’s arrest of Igor Girkin, a former Russian intelligence officer and leading nationalist military blogger, will probably infuriate elements in the military as well as his fellow bloggers, according to UK intelligence.
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The US plans to announce a new military aid package for Ukraine worth up to $400m as Ukraine’s counteroffensive grinds on, it was reported. Zelenskiy also said Ukraine’s counteroffensive was about to “gain pace”.
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The Polish deputy foreign minister, Pawel Jablonski, has said his meeting with the Russian ambassador to Poland – after he was summoned after Vladimir Putin alleged Poland harboured territorial ambitions in western Ukraine – was “very brief”.
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President Zelenskiy said he spoke with Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg on the phone about sustaining the Black Sea grain initiative as well as agreements reached during the Vilnius summit and “further actions regarding the integration of Ukraine into Nato”.
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Ukraine’s air defence units shot down five Russian combat and nine reconnaissance drones over the past 24 hours, Euromaidan Press has reported, citing the air force.
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The director of the CIA has been made a cabinet member by the US president, Joe Biden, who said the agency has been providing “good intelligence, delivered with honesty and integrity”.
www.theguardian.com/...
- Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 22.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations may soon increase in tempo and that the delay in counteroffensive operations was in part due to limited materiel.
- Ukrainian officials stated on July 22 that Ukraine’s interdiction campaign against Russian military targets in rear areas is successfully degrading Russian logistics and counterbattery capabilities, likely contributing to an asymmetrical attrition gradient in Ukraine’s favor.
- Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil depot and ammunition depot in Crimea as part of this Ukrainian pressure campaign.
- Russian strikes against Ukrainian shipping and agricultural infrastructure in southern Ukraine may be subsiding or entering a temporary lull.
- Further details about former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin’s arrest for extremism continues to suggest a shifting balance of power among Kremlin factions and a notable factionalism within the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), in which Girkin had served.
- Girkin’s affiliates have launched a public effort to cast Girkin as an embattled figure in opposition to Russian leadership.
- Girkin’s arrest has not generated widespread outrage in the Russian ultranationalist community as some previous cases have, suggesting an increasing fragmentation within the information space.
- Girkin’s arrest is likely not an indicator of a wider effort to censor the Russian ultranationalist community, but rather an attempt to excise a specific segment of the community that is vocally hostile to the Kremlin.
- Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and in the Bakhmut area but did not make gains.
- Russian forces conducted offensive operations in the Kupyansk and Bakhmut areas and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and made claimed advances in the Kupyansk area.
- Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not make advances.
- Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area but did not make any confirmed or claimed advances.
- Prominent Russian Federation Council members opposed a bill aimed at increasing the upper age limit for the conscription age while maintaining the lower limit of 18.
- Russian occupation authorities continue to relocate Ukrainian children in occupied Ukraine to Russia.
- The Wagner Group’s footprint in Belarus is likely expanding.
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without advancing on July 22. Russian Western Grouping of Forces Spokesperson Sergey Zybinsky claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked near Masyutivka (13km northeast of Kupyansk) and Petropavlivka (7km east of Kupyansk).[44] The Russian MoD claimed that Ukrainian forces launched seven unsuccessful attacks near Karmazynivka (12km southwest of Svatove), Novovodyane (15km southwest of Svatove), Kreminna, and Dibrova (6km southwest of Kreminna).[45] The Russian MoD also claimed that Ukrainian forces launched unsuccessful attacks near Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna), Spirne (25km south of Kreminna), and Berestove (30km south of Kreminna) in Donetsk Oblast.[46]
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations north and south of Bakhmut without advancing on July 22. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian elements of the Southern Grouping of Forces repelled Ukrainian assaults near Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) and Zaitseve (20km south of Bakhmut).[49] ...The Ukrainian General Staff did not publish its routine update on Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut area on July 22. Russian forces continued counterattacks in the Bakhmut area but did not make any confirmed gains on July 22. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful assaults near Hryhorivka (9km northwest of Bakhmut), Bohdanivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut), and Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut).[51] ... ISW has observed elements of the 98th VDV Division operating on Bakhmut’s northern flank, elements of the 346th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff Main Directorate [GRU]) operating on Bakhmut’s southern flank, and elements of the 106th VDV Division operating on both flanks.[53]
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area without advancing on July 22. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Berdyansk (Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast area) direction.[57] The Russian MoD claimed that Ukrainian forces launched three unsuccessful attacks near Urozhaine (9km south of Velyka Novosilka) and Pryyutne (14km southwest of Velyka Novosilka).[58] ... Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area and did not make any confirmed advances on July 22. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Blahodatne (5km south of Velyka Novosilka).[63]