News outlets and pollsters have been asking the wrong question about a 2024 rematch between 80-years-wise President Joe Biden and twice-impeached, twice-indicted Donald Trump: Are Americans excited to vote for them?
Nope, they are not. New Daily Kos/Civiqs polling confirms what multiple other surveys have found: scant excitement for either candidate, with just 41% of registered voters calling themselves "very excited" while about half as many (22%) say they are "not excited at all."
Motivated, however, is a different story, with 77% of the electorate saying they are "very motivated" to vote in a 2024 Biden-Trump rematch, including 82% of Democrats, 82% of Republicans, and 68% of independents.
In other words, negative partisanship—meaning fear or dislike of the other candidate—appears to be vastly more motivating to voters, even as excitement about their own candidate lags. (It's worth mentioning, though, that Republicans outpaced Democrats by 10 points in the "very excited" category, 52%-42%).
Still, a 2024 Biden-Trump rematch, if it should happen, is likely to be driven much more by negative partisanship than sheer enthusiasm from either party for Biden or Trump.
And in the context of a negative partisanship contest, Trump is losing ground.
Asked if they would "definitely vote" for Trump, 31% of the electorate said they would, including 70% of Republicans and 25% of independents. Biden bested Trump on all counts in the question, with 36% saying they would definitely vote Biden, including 74% of Democrats and 26% of independents.
In fact, the data lines up very favorably for Biden.
July: IF BIDEN/TRUMP WERE THE 2024 NOMINEE, WOULD YOU...
|
Biden |
Trump |
Net |
Definitely vote for him |
36% |
31% |
Biden+5 |
Probably vote for him |
9% |
10% |
Trump+1 |
Probably vote someone else
|
4% |
3% |
Biden+1 |
Definitely vote someone else |
49% |
53% |
Trump+4 |
Unsure |
2% |
3% |
Trump+1 |
The most important numbers there by far are "definitely vote for" candidate X or someone else, and Biden leads Trump by 5 points in the definitely "for" category while Trump leads Biden by 4 points in the definitely "someone else" category.
In a presidential contest won on the margins (which a Biden-Trump rematch would surely be), the data reflects a meaningful advantage for Biden.
But what makes the results even more striking is that the numbers are also notably better for Biden and worse for Trump since Daily Kos/Civiqs asked the same question last month. Here's the matchup in June:
JUne: IF BIDEN/TRUMP WERE THE 2024 NOMINEE, WOULD YOU...
|
Biden |
Trump |
Net |
Definitely vote For him |
34% |
39% |
Trump+5 |
Probably vote for him |
12% |
6% |
Biden+6 |
Probably vote Someone else |
3% |
3% |
Even |
Definitely vote someone else |
50% |
50% |
Even |
Unsure |
2% |
2% |
Even |
Between June and July, only 2% more voters said they would definitely vote Biden, but he still netted 10 points because Trump lost 8 points in the category.
The number of voters who said they would definitely vote against Trump also rose 4 points between June and July—also good news for Biden.
While it may not feel emotionally satisfying for Democrats to have Biden gain ground in a 2024 rematch against Trump primarily because Trump appears to be getting weaker, it's still a positive development for Team Biden.
It also suggests a potential softening of support for Trump, something we might begin to see more of in early primary states as more criminal indictments drop.
Remember, Trump's favorables aren't improving with each indictment, contrary to popular belief. At 36% favorable-58% unfavorable, Trump’s favorability rating is hovering right around its lowest point since he won the 2016 election.
Trump's continued dominance of the Republican primary nationally—33 points ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis—appears to be less about his strength than the stunning failure of DeSantis as a candidate.
Sign the petition: Tell the GOP to stop defending Trump.