Despite Donald Trump's attempts to really liven up the August new cycle, political news outside of the Republican Party full-fascist meltdown is slow. But nothing the media can't correct with a fixation on President Joe Biden's low approvals on the economy.
After all, if the 2024 Republican frontrunner is unraveling in real time, surely Democrats need something to fret about too.
It's true that Biden's numbers on direct questioning about handling of the economy are low, but it's worth taking a tour of Civiqs tracking of economic indicators to get a better look under the hood.
As many polls are showing, voters' rating of Biden's handling of the economy isn't exactly soothing for Democrats. At 20 points underwater in Civiqs tracking, just 36% of voters view the president as doing a good job, while 56% say he isn't (with 8% unsure).
However, ask about support for the president's plan to upgrade infrastructure—including transportation, energy, housing, schools, manufacturing, internet, and community health care—and Biden is 25% above water with 55% support and 30% opposed.
Perhaps, that's to be expected since Americans generally like the idea of infrastructure investments (except Republicans, who support it at just 13%). But here's an interesting metric: Is Biden doing enough to create new jobs? Biden's numbers on this question are the best they have ever been over the course of his presidency, with 41% saying "yes" compared to 50% saying "no." When Biden first signed the infrastructure bill in November 2021, just 36% of voters thought he was doing enough to create jobs, while 53% said he wasn't—so he's netted 8 points since then.
It's the trend line here that matters, and it is noticeably improving in Biden's direction. Of course, Biden has created a historic 13 million jobs during his presidency, but it takes a while for these economic stats to sink into public consciousness (i.e., for voters to feel it), and that appears to actually be happening now.
Ratings on the direction of the economy are still abysmal with just 26% saying it's improving, 16% saying it's staying about the same, and 55% saying it's getting worse. But again, perceptions have steadily improved since late spring when just 18% said it was getting better, while 60% viewed it as getting worse—an 11-point net improvement.
Biden's overall job approval rating is also trending in a good direction in Civiqs tracking at 40% approve, 52% disapprove, and 8% on the fence. If the fencesitters were forced to choose, most would likely move to the approve category (Biden haters don't fence-sit), so it's safe to say Biden is sitting at a mid-40s approval right now.
Voters might also be cluing in to the fact that Republicans don't give two hoots about anyone not named Donald Trump. Asked which party cares more about the needs of people like you, and 41% say Democrats while 32% say Republicans. The GOP's trend line has been in slow descent ever since Trump's first indictment in March.
So while voters still say they hold a dismal view of Biden's handling of the economy, they seem a bit more upbeat about the particulars along with the direction things are generally moving.
Any campaign operative will tell you that it usually takes voters at least six months before an improving economy begins to settle into more optimistic public sentiment. In the runup to a presidential election, perceptions about the economy also start to solidify right around late spring/early summer. If that's accurate, then reality-based voters should be feeling pretty positive about the economy during an optimal window next year for Biden's reelection prospects. Assuming, that is, that jobs continue to be plentiful, inflation continues to ease, and people start to viscerally feel that both their economic opportunities and buying power are improving.
Did anything happen while we were all taking a well-deserved break? Something about Donald Trump being indicted not once, but two times! Also in the news: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ campaign collapse. So much is happening!