Here’s some good news today out of Arizona:
Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) is leading Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and failed gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R) in a new poll gauging support for a three-way Senate race in 2024 for the seat held by Sinema.
The latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse report from Noble Predictive Insights, formerly OH Predictive Insights, found Gallego in the lead with 34 percent, compared to 26 percent for Lake and 25 percent for Sinema, who left the Democratic Party last year to become an independent.
Another 15 percent in the poll were undecided.
If Sinema is not in the race, Gallego’s lead grows to 10 percent in a two-way fight, with 45 percent backing the Democrat compared to 35 percent for Lake.
“Congressman Gallego’s strength in head-to-head match-ups shows his appeal across various demographic groups, making him a formidable candidate in this race,” said NPI founder and chief of research Mike Noble in the report.
“However, Senator Sinema’s entry could create a more complex electoral landscape, given her ability to draw support from Independents,” Noble said.
Here are the breakdowns from the poll. First, Gallego, Sinema and Lake:
Gallego v. Lake and Gallego v. Lake v. Sinema
In head-to-head matchups, Congressman Ruben Gallego led by a 10-point margin when pitted against potential Republican candidate Kari Lake (45% to 35%). Gallego's support came from key voting blocs, including:
· Hispanic/Latinos: Gallego +22
· Independents: Gallego +14
· Women: Gallego +12
· Maricopa: Gallego +12
· HHI $50k-$100k: Gallego +12
In a hypothetical three-way race that included Sinema, Gallego retained a significant advantage. Sinema’s entry caused an 11-point drop in Gallego's support and a 9-point drop for Lake, statistically tying Sinema and Lake with support from one-quarter of voters. In this scenario, Sinema performed better among Independents, gaining 38% of their support compared to Gallego's 24% and Lake's 16%.
Second, Gallego, Sinema & Masters:
Gallego v. Masters and Gallego v. Masters v. Sinema
It is important to note that Gallego's lead extended over other potential Republican contenders. Against candidate Blake Masters, Gallego maintained a solid 8-point advantage (44% to 36%). A three-way race with Sinema brought a 12-point drop for both candidates, cutting Gallego’s leading margin to 4 points with Sinema in second at 28% and Masters falling to 24% support.
Finally, Gallego, Sinema & Lamb:
Gallego v. Lamb and Gallego v. Lamb v. Sinema
Similarly, in a matchup against potential Republican candidate Mark Lamb, Congressman Gallego led by 4 points (40% to 36%). However, when Sinema joined the race, the Senator’s 24% dropped Gallego's support by 7 points and Lamb’s by 11 points, putting her at a statistical tie with Lamb.
We don’t know yet if Sinema will officially run for re-election but Wall Street would like her back:
SEN. KYRSTEN SINEMA’S close relationship with the titans of the private equity industry, whose agenda she has relentlessly championed in Congress, continues to bedevil her reelection campaign. In 2018, the first year she was elected to the Senate, she was backed by powerful private equity executives. Leon Black, then the CEO of Apollo Global Management, one of the largest such firms in the world, was one of them.
Now Black is back in the headlines, this time accused of raping a 16-year-old girl in the home of Jeffrey Epstein, a serial sex trafficker Black financed with more than $150 million.
Black’s support of Sinema is a window into the devil’s bargain the one-time radical leftist cut in order to rise through the ranks. Wall Street financing enabled her rise, even as it has forced her into politically unpopular positions, defending indefensible private equity giveaways in the tax codes, and linked her to unsavory characters always at risk of becoming a public relations liability.
In 2018, Black and his wife together made a $5,400 donation to Sinema’s campaign, the maximum legal contribution at the time. Three years later, Black was out from the top post at Apollo Global Management, the firm he helped found, after it was revealed that he paid the disgraced financier Epstein more than $150 million for estate planning and tax services. The Senate Finance Committee is currently investigating that payment and whether it involved tax evasion.
Also, no word yet if Lake or Masters will actually jump into the race. Lake seems a little preoccupied:
Former Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake has called on her party's presidential candidates to suspend their 2024 campaigns and rally behind Donald Trump.
Lake, who has been floated as a potential running mate if Trump wins the GOP nomination, made the suggestion in a statement issued to Twitter on Tuesday following the former president's federal indictment as part of Special Counsel Jack Smith's investigation into efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
The Republican, who has never conceded defeat in the 2022 Arizona governor's race, again called on Trump's 2024 rivals to suspend their campaigns during an interview with Newsmax on Tuesday.
Health, Democracy and Freedom are on the ballot next year and we need to keep Arizona Blue with a real Democrat. Click below to donate and get involved with Gallego’s campaign and the Arizona Democratic Party:
Ruben Galego
Arizona Democratic Party