I propose Ukraine is playing for Russian national culmination. The way to get the rashists out of Ukraine is to give them a thrashing on the battlefield while simultaneously hitting Russian military targets everywhere they can reach, including Crimea and their own country, and by turning the screws more on sanctions to make civilian lives more miserable. Last fall’s offensive in which Ukraine took back Kharkiv and eventually Kherson was due to military culmination. It’s time for Ukraine and the world to push for widespread culmination.
Although echoing heads complained of the slow counter-offensive, Ukraine kept punching Russians on multiple fronts. Recent combat and other videos show a highly effective, kick-butt military storming and clearing trench after trench while lambasting retreating troops with accurate artillery. Add to that incredible counter-battery fire and drone attacks recently eliminating 30+ Russian artillery systems per day, resulting in decreasing artillery support for their infantry. Russian complaints of lack of artillery have been captured in several phone intercepts. Concurrently, there have been reports of fleeing and surrendering troops in the face of the Ukrainian advances. Hopefully, this may lead to another military culmination in the Tokmak direction, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see advances in other regions.
The major difference between this counteroffensive and the Kharkiv and Kherson advances is that Ukraine is delivering hurt to Russians on the home front. Ukraine is still holding the moral high ground by limiting attacks to military-relevant targets, but people can’t help but notice irregular and almost constant attacks. It’s like Russia knocked down a hive of hornets, and they’re being stung viciously. Eventually, they’ll run from the constant attacks. They’ll withdraw if the sanctions keep coming, the world shuns Russia completely, and Ukraine constantly stings them.
Ukraine is preparing for another winter of missile and drone attacks on power and heating infrastructure. I would bet that Ukraine is more prepared to respond this year. However, suppose Ukraine was wise, and at the first attack on power infrastructure in Ukraine, they unleashed a massive swarm of drones targeting all power substations around Moscow and other cities within reach. In addition, it would be beneficial if Ukraine could target TV transmission towers to interrupt the propaganda stream. Let Russians feel the effects of war in ways that catches their attention with minimal risk to life.
Making the population aware that this war affects their lives doesn’t do much to deal with Putin. However, Ukraine is working on the Putin front differently. By all accounts, Putin lives in an information bubble, and his minions strive to feed him information about military progress that doesn’t reflect reality. His recent statements on tank and troop losses can either be deliberate lies or his stating the information he’s fed. Ukraine pierced this information bubble when it sank Moskva, and both times they damaged the Kerch bridge. Tonight’s attack on Sevastopol destroyed or damaged another landing ship and a submarine. Again, this can’t be hidden from Putin, and even if he ignores this, he is made weaker by the inability of his military to defend their resources.
The Russian Ruble bouncing around a penny is a sore point for Putin, and the content I’ve read and watched on their economy (good information from Joe Blogs) seems to show deterioration in folks' living situation. Still, it’s not as broad or deep as Ukraine would like. There are several avenues in which Russia is evading sanctions through intermediary countries working through shell companies. The Biden administration and the UN must find ways to implement secondary sanctions on non-compliant entities to isolate Russia further.
If Ukraine can keep applying these pressure points, not only could there be another instance of military culmination, but the Russian nation might begin asking, “Is this Special Military Operation worth it?” Strong police and military responses have quelled protests at the moment. However, this has resulted in “things blowing up” in the country's factories and other militarily important sites like rail switchboxes. Repression frequently results in severe blowback. This blowback could result in a Russian National Culmination, though how it falls out is impossible to predict.
This was designed as a quick train-of-thought post; thus, I didn’t provide supporting links. My sources span DKos diaries, multiple YouTube sources, and newswire sources.