You won’t be surprised, given the temperature in the 90s that Climate Issues was the Number 1 issue for the Arizonans we talked to on Saturday. Especially in Phoenix, voters were tired of the persistent heat. Political Stability was the #2 issue voters raised. Everyone seems to have their own emphasis here. Rising Grocery Prices was the third most frequently raised issue on Saturday.
Among the Arizonans we talked to Biden’s Job Approval was at 51%; 9% expressed some measure of Disapproval. 6% of the voters who responded Approved of the job Sen. Sinema was doing while 28% expressed Disapproval. This (disapproval) is down markedly from what we were finding in the Spring and Fall. Sinema just isn’t evoking the emotional reactions we found then. We also ask about whether voters Approve of likely Democratic nominee Ruben Gallego. 51% of the voters we talked to had a positive impression of the Congressman. (We are not asking about disapproval of the Congressman yet.)
53% of the voters we talked to thought Gov. Hobbs was doing a good job, 7% said they disapproved of the job she was doing. Because some of our volunteers want to compare Sinema disapproval numbers to Rep. Ruben Gallego’s approval numbers, we include it here (as we will each week).
Hope Springs from Field volunteers registered 5 new voters and registered 42 voters who updated their addresses (or updated their voter registration to participate in the Active Early Voting List — the latter skews the number higher). We differentiate between the new voters and re-registering voters because brand new voters are often ignored by campaigns and we hope to compensate for that somewhat by having volunteers send them post cards before the election and they will also receive robocalls thanking them for registering.
In Arizona, we had 88 voters fill out Constituent Service Request forms. We send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors since March in a grassroots effort to prepare the 2024 Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are canvassing Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization
Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.
341 volunteers turned up to knock on doors in the Las Vegas and Reno region. They knocked on 25,472 doors and talked to 1,905 voters. 1,213 of those voters answered at least some of our questions on the Issues Survey.
The Top 3 Issues canvassers found in Nevada last weekend were, first, Jobs. And voters did mention “good paying jobs.” Schools was the Second most frequently cited concern. Housing was Third. Housing costs, availability of Housing for sale that people like. All kinds of things, in that regard.
Biden’s Approval numbers among the Nevadans we talked to was at 53% last Saturday, with a Disapproval number of 7%. Senator Rosen had an Approval rating of 65% with 5% of the voters we talked to on Saturday expressing Disapproval. Approval of Governor Lombardo was 32% and Disapproval was 41% last Saturday. Lombardo’s numbers definitely vary according to what percentage of voters we canvass in Reno are included!
Volunteers registered 7 new voters and re-registered 36 voters. We differentiate between the two because brand new voters are often ignored by campaigns and we hope to compensate for that somewhat by having volunteers send them post cards before the election and they are also getting robocalls thanking them for registering. But we are finding lots of teens who just turned legal age whose parents (primarily mothers) are insisting they register.
68 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms. We send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if there are no Democrats who can further the request, and the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
2 voters filled out Incident Reports about issues they witnessed in a prior election. We continue to see voters who want to fill out an Incident Report but realize they didn’t actually witness something to report. Nevada and North Carolina seem to lead the states where we canvass in this regard. We have been building a database of Incident Reports, and reports we collected in Nevada have been used successfully to request a time extension for voters before a polling precinct closed.
If you support grassroots organizing to increase voter participation and election protection, expand the electorate and prepare the electoral battlefield for Democrats, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization
66 volunteers showed up for our kickoff canvass in the Bozeman/Butte and Missoula areas on Saturday in relatively nippy weather. Senator Tester is running for re-election and is considered among the most vulnerable Democrats running in 2024. Tester has his own support network that is largely independent of the Democratic party and our effort is designed to reinforce that supporter network among (mostly) independent voters in Montana. We start a little later in the day here, meeting up at 11am instead of 9 (Arizona) or 10, depending on the weather forecast.
Tester benefits from an apparent GOP primary, between Senate leadership-backed Tim Sheehy and Rep. Matt Rosendale, a member of the House Freedom Caucus. Jon Tester is well-known in the state as a working rancher, something both of his opponents claim to be, as well. But Rosendale apparently has no cattle (or owns no ranch) and Sheehy was exposed for paying no cattle taxes. In what is widely considered to be the 2nd most likely seat to flip, the Club for Growth-backed Rosendale is polling “big” over the NRSC-backed Sheehy. Tester is considered to have an electoral advantage over Rosendale.
Hope Springs volunteers knocked on 4,600 doors on Saturday and talked to 350 voters. 230 of those voters answered at least some of our questions on the Issues Survey.
You may have noticed that our volunteer recruitment in Montana has not been as successful as Hope Springs has been elsewhere. We haven’t had the kind of exponential growth we have witnessed elsewhere. It has been more difficult because we didn’t really start with much of a list in the first place. Kinda making it up as we go along.
Prices was the biggest concern cited by voters on Saturday. The Credit Crunch, specifically from variable rate loans, was the Second Concern. Several (!) voters even specifically mentioned keeping an eye on the Fed’s announcement. I can’t say that this has ever come up before. Healthcare Costs was the third most frequently mentioned concern.
Joe Biden’s Approval numbers was 48% last Saturday; his Disapproval number was 14%. Senator Tester’s Job Approval was 67% with 4% of the voters we talked to on Saturday expressing Disapproval. Approval of Governor Gianforte, meanwhile, was 31%; Disapproval was 39% last Saturday.
Hope Springs from Field volunteers help 1 voter update their voter registration to comply with federal law. 4 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms. We send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if there are no Democrats who can further the request, and the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.
But the main focus of our canvassing right now is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as Congressional Districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions, Hope Springs from Field seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them.
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization