Florida Democrats kicked off the new year with a major victory as businessman and Navy veteran Tom Keen flipped a Republican-held seat in the state House―a development that represents Gov. Ron DeSantis' second electoral humiliation in the span of 24 hours.
Keen defeated his Republican rival, Osceola County School Board member Erika Booth, 51-49 in Tuesday's special election for the 35th House District, a constituency in the Orlando suburbs that Joe Biden carried 52-47. The Democrat will succeed Republican Fred Hawkins, whom Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed in June to serve as president of South Florida State College despite lacking any background in higher education.
Republicans will hold an 84-36 supermajority in the state House as well as a similarly lopsided edge in the state Senate, so Keen's victory won't jeopardize the party's iron grip on state government. But Sunshine State Democrats are hoping that this win, which comes less than a year after the party flipped control of the mayor's office in Jacksonville, will give them another chance to convince Biden's reelection campaign and other deep-pocketed organizations that this longtime swing state is still winnable.
Former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who stumped for Keen over the weekend, is making the same argument as she tries to persuade national Democrats that her campaign against Republican Sen. Rick Scott is worth investing in. She's linked the two races in arguing that Floridians "can’t afford to pay their bills" thanks to "the failed policies" that began while Scott was governor.
Keen's showing comes only a little over a year after DeSantis and other Republicans romped to victory in this district. According to Florida data analyst Matt Isbell, DeSantis carried the 35th District 56-43 in 2022, while GOP Sen. Marco Rubio took it by a 53-46 spread.
Both parties understood that Tuesday's results could resonate far beyond the Florida House of Representatives, and they spent heavily to win here. Florida Politics wrote Tuesday that Booth had outraised Keen $323,000 to $121,000, but the official campaign committee of Florida House Democrats had outspent its GOP counterpart $541,000 to $207,000 through Jan. 11.
And the race may have been even more expensive than these figures suggest. Isbell estimates that Republicans altogether deployed $1.5 million, while Democrats put in $1.2 million, though he cautions that "so much money is hard to trace."
Keen, for his part, campaigned against excessive insurance prices while also emphasizing abortion rights. He also accused DeSantis, who procrastinated for weeks in scheduling this special election, of deliberately setting it to take place the day after the first contest in the Republican presidential race.
"Our governor decided he didn’t want to be embarrassed the day before, when he’s going to be in Iowa for the Iowa caucuses," Keen said in November. DeSantis, who is still recovering from his humiliating 30-point drubbing in the Hawkeye State, instead got to be embarrassed on both days.
Editor’s note: This piece has been updated to include the percentage of the vote each candidate received.
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