Simon Rosenberg said, " When I look at 2024 I have this basic take which is that Joe Biden is a good president, the country is better off, the Democratic Party is strong and winning elections all across the country and they have Trump and by what I mean by they have Trump is Trump to me is one of the worst candidates for major office in the history of the country and that he is far more degraded extreme and dangerous candidate than he was in 2016 or 2020 .
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That he, His performance on the stump has been wild and erratic and that he has got, you know, they are taking, the Republicans are taking, an enormous risk by nominating him because They really are taking somebody with unprecedented levels of baggage, so many different things that could knock him out of contention and they are daring the American people to support this guy despite everything that he's done. It's not prudent and smart in our traditional , you know, way that we look at politics and I think there are three quick warning signs that I saw for the Republicans.
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One is turnout was very low . I know it was cold but cold can only account for a small percentage of what we saw. I mean. You know the republicans have been struggling with performance all across the country since Dobbs. This is another struggle, another performance, another underperformance by the Republican Party. Turn out was way way off. Not easy to explain other than there's a lack of enthusiasm frankly for the Republican candidates.
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Second, is that we know from polling, the NBC poll, that of Nikki Haley's supporters, a plurality of Nikki Haley supporters said they would vote for Biden over Trump in the general election. That is a huge red flag for the Republicans because you know there is somewhere between 20 and 30% of the Republican Party that's not with Trump, that's not with MAGA and the question is how many of those folks will hold their nose and vote Republican, how many will stay home, how many will vote for the Democrats. This polling, a very credible the most serious pollster that we have in the business suggested that there could be a significant break from Trump if he's the nominee.
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And then the third , uh the third point I would make is something similar to that which is that you know today we even saw on the Fox News interview one of the Haley supporters in New Hampshire saying if Trump wins, I am going to voting for Joe Biden. The chance for their being substantial erosion in the Republican brand because of his legal problems. We now know and there was more polling last that thirty percent of Republican voters, you know, that says if Trump is convicted of a crime it could be a disqualifier for them. That's a big number.
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Yes, the Republicans are feeling good today and won handily but there are lots of warning signs for the Republicans as we head to the next stage of the election.