The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
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Leading Off
● SC-03: South Carolina's Faith and Freedom BBQ will need a new host following the Wednesday retirement announcement of Rep. Jeff Duncan, a seven-term Republican whose wife accused him of infidelity just months ago.
Before Duncan's messy divorce, he was a power player in this early presidential primary state. Duncan won a competitive primary runoff to represent northwestern South Carolina in 2010 with the support of the hardline Club for Growth, and his tight grip on his safely red seat made him an appealing host for White House hopefuls.
But the congressman's standing took a huge hit in September when his wife of 35 years filed divorce papers alleging that the man who presented himself as a "dedicated, dutiful husband" left his latest barbecue to go "directly to the home of his paramour."
Read more from Jeff Singer about the rise and ugly fall of this prominent social conservative.
The Downballot
● Is there anything more iconic in American politics than the whistle-stop tour? Author Edward Segal joins us on this week's episode of "The Downballot" to discuss his new book unearthing the storied history of campaigning by train. Segal takes us through nearly two centuries of rail campaigns, from early pioneers like Abraham Lincoln to the great popularizer of whistle-stop touring, William Jennings Bryan, all the way up to "Amtrak Joe" Biden. Along the way, learn how politicians' trains were actually deployed, lessons for today's campaigners, and the surprising era Segal identifies as the heyday for these tours.
Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dive deep into Democrat Tom Keen's huge special election victory in Florida on Tuesday night, including why the result was a purely self-inflicted wound for Ron DeSantis and how it'll help Sunshine State Democrats get their mojo back. The Davids then dissect the many twists and turns in the court-ordered redistricting process that's now underway in Louisiana, where the state's new GOP governor seems intent on punishing a political enemy and rewarding a friend—only the former is a Republican and the latter a Democrat!
Subscribe to "The Downballot" on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show. You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern time. New episodes every Thursday morning!
4Q Fundraising
- TX-Sen: Colin Allred (D): $4.8 million raised, $10 million cash on hand
- AZ-06: Kirsten Engel (D): $460,000 raised, $900,000 cash on hand
- CA-27: George Whitesides (D): $510,000 raised, additional $260,000 self-funded, $2.2 million cash on hand
- MI-13: Adam Hollier (D): $444,000 raised, $410,000 cash on hand
Senate
● NM-Sen: Meet the latest GOP Senate recruit who has a Dr. Oz problem. Nella Domenici may be the daughter of the late Sen. Pete Domenici, but her ties to the state her father became famous for serving are extremely thin.
So where has Domenici been spending time if not New Mexico? Amazingly enough, she was a top executive at the same Connecticut-based hedge once run by Dave McCormick, who's now running for Senate in … Pennsylvania. We're starting to sense a theme.
Jeff Singer has more on Domenici's launch at Daily Kos Elections, including why one veteran political reporter in the Land of Enchantment is deeply unimpressed with her local bona fides—and why her family name might not take her as far as she'd hope.
● WV-Sen: Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott announced a longshot campaign to replace retiring Sen. Joe Manchin in what's become one of the reddest states in the nation. Elliott, a Democrat, was first elected in 2016 to lead West Virginia's fifth-largest city, which is home to 26,000 people, and he won reelection four years later.
Governors
● MT-Gov: GOP Gov. Greg Gianforte finally confirmed Tuesday that he'd seek reelection, though there'd been no indication that he was considering retirement. Gianforte faces opposition in the June 4 primary from state Rep. Tanner Smith, but it doesn't look like it will be much of a fight: Smith, writes the Montana Free Press, finished 2023 with less than $3,000 in the bank.
The only notable Democrat in the race is Ryan Busse, a former firearms executive-turned-gun safety advocate who ended last year with $172,000 on hand. The governor hasn't revealed his fundraising numbers yet, though money should be no problem for the wealthy incumbent.
House
● CA-49: SurveyUSA, working on behalf of KGTV-TV and the San Diego Union-Tribune, is out with the first poll we've seen of the March 5 top-two primary for California's 49th Congressional District:
- Rep. Mike Levin (D-inc): 43
- 2022 state Senate candidate Matt Gunderson (R): 12
- Marine veteran Kate Monroe (R): 7
- Entravision executive Margarita Wilkinson (R): 7
- Businesswoman Sheryl Adams (R): 3
- Undecided: 28
The general election portion of the poll finds Levin leading Gunderson and Wilkinson 47-34 and 48-29, respectively. Joe Biden carried this constituency, which includes coastal communities north of San Diego, 55-43. Last cycle, Levin fended off Republican Brian Maryott 53-47 after an expensive battle.
● CO-04: The Denver Post reported on Wednesday that state House Minority Leader Mike Lynch was arrested in 2022 both on "suspicion of drunken driving and possessing a firearm while intoxicated." Lynch ultimately pleaded guilty to a count of "driving while ability impaired" and was sentenced last February to 18 months of probation. The minority leader, who is competing in the busy June Republican primary, said of the previously unreported arrest, "It was irresponsible. … We didn’t fight it because I own it."
● CO-05: A spokesperson for state Rep. Rose Pugliese, who serves as assistant minority leader, tells Colorado Politics that she's decided not to run to replace retiring Rep. Doug Lamborn, a fellow Republican.
● LA Redistricting: On Wednesday, the Louisiana Senate approved a new congressional map favored by GOP Gov. Jeff Landry that would target an intra-party enemy, Rep. Garret Graves, by creating a new Black-majority 6th District that would snake from Shreveport to Baton Rouge some 250 miles away.
The boundaries were slightly altered from those originally presented to the legislature, though there seem to be no major changes. A state House committee, however, unexpectedly voted to advance a considerably different map that would give both the 2nd and 6th districts just a narrow Black plurality.
The lower chamber followed Landry's direction, though, by passing a bill that would eliminate the state's unique all-party primaries and replace them with separate primaries for each party, as is the practice in most states. The legislation now goes to the state Senate.
● MO-03: Missouri Public Radio reports that former Boone County Clerk Taylor Burks, who lost the 2022 Republican primary for the neighboring 4th District, is considering a bid to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer in Missouri's 3rd. Burks, who finished in fourth place with 10% of the vote last cycle, does not appear to have said anything publicly about another campaign.
● NJ-03: Civil rights attorney Joe Cohn announced Wednesday that he was entering the June 4 Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Andy Kim, who is running for Senate.
Cohn, who describes himself as "progressive where it’s productive, moderate where it matters," is a first-time candidate, but the New Jersey Globe notes that he has ties to some notable organizations. Cohn is currently the legislative and policy director for the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression, and he also used to work for the American Civil Liberties Union.
Cohn joins two members of the state Assembly, Herb Conaway and Carol Murphy, in the primary for a South Jersey constituency that Joe Biden carried 56-42. New Jersey's filing deadline is March 25, so the field may still expand.
● NV-03: Former state Treasurer Dan Schwartz announced Wednesday that he'd seek the Republican nomination to take on Democratic Rep. Susie Lee, with a promise to self-fund $1 million. National Republicans lost their only viable candidate two weeks ago when Assemblywoman Heidi Kasama dropped out of the race, but Schwartz's poor electoral history and fraught relationships with state Republicans may not make him an ideal replacement.
Schwartz was elected statewide in 2014 during the worst election cycle for Democrats in recent memory, but he quickly began feuding with then-Gov. Brian Sandoval and the late conservative mega-donor Sheldon Adelson. The treasurer campaigned to succeed the termed-out Sandoval in 2018, but he lost the primary to Attorney General Adam Laxalt in a 71-9 drubbing. (Democrat Steve Sisolak beat Laxalt that fall.)
Schwartz wasn't humbled by that defeat, however, and soon set his sights on challenging Lee in the 3rd District in 2020. But he lost the GOP nomination battle 50-27 against Dan Rodimer, a former wrestler who went on to narrowly lose to Lee. Schwartz waged another comeback campaign in 2022 when he ran for lieutenant governor, but he ended up taking just fourth place in the primary with 12%; Stavros Anthony, who prevailed with 31%, unseated Democratic incumbent Lisa Cano Burkhead in the fall.
● NY-03: The NRCC is airing its first independent expenditure against Democrat Tom Suozzi, while its counterparts at the DCCC are out with another spot taking Republican Mazi Pilip to task. AdImpact reports that Democrats hold a massive $8.1 million to $1.2 million advertising advantage with less than a month to go before the Feb. 13 special.
The NRCC's commercial, which begins with the sound of a gunshot and blood splattered across the screen, goes on to feature footage of what the narrator says is "another illegal immigrant arrested." The spot then blames Suozzi for violent crime and argues he's Gov. Kathy Hochul's "handpicked candidate," which would probably come as a surprise to both Democrats.
Suozzi badly lost the 2022 primary to Hochul, who reportedly maintained a major grudge after Republicans repurposed Suozzi's attacks on her in the general election. The New York Times reported in December that the governor only signed off on his comeback bid after she laid out a series of demands, including that Suozzi "agree to run as a full-throated defender of abortion rights."
The DCCC spot, meanwhile, features footage of reporters observing that Pilip departed her December campaign launch "before taking any questions" and "was whisked away." The narrator goes on to charge that Pilip is aligned with Republicans who want to "ban abortion even in New York, even in cases of rape or incest, and make massive cuts to Social Security." The spot concludes, "With an agenda that extreme, it's no wonder Mazi Pilip is hiding."
● SC-01: Politico reports that Dan Hanlon, who was chief of staff to Rep. Nancy Mace until last month, is now telling donors that he's thinking about challenging his old boss in the June 11 Republican primary. But Hanlon is not the only one who may wage an intra-party bid against Mace, who was one of the eight House Republicans who voted to end Kevin McCarthy's speakership in October.
Former state Rep. Katie Arrington, who lost to Mace in the 2022 primary, expressed interest in a rematch shortly after Mace's attention-grabbing move, while the Cook Political Report also mentioned Charleston County Council member Jenny Costa Honeycutt as a possibility. A June 25 runoff would take place if no one earns a majority of the vote. Donald Trump carried this district 54-45 in 2020.
● VA-05: While Donald Trump hasn't taken sides in the Republican primary between Rep. Bob Good and state Sen. John McGuire, one of his campaign managers made it clear that MAGA's master wants the incumbent gone. "Bob Good won’t be electable when we get done with him," Chris LaCivita ominously told the Cardinal News of the congressman, who made the mistake of endorsing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in May.
Good, who was selected to chair the nihilistic Freedom Caucus last month, defended that decision this week while insisting, "I would enthusiastically support President Trump if he was the nominee again." McGuire, who traveled to Iowa to campaign for Trump, is unlikely to be appeased, as he's castigated the congressman as a "Never-Trumper." Good has fired back by portraying McGuire, who announced his new campaign just days after he won a promotion from the state House to the upper chamber, as "a perpetual candidate in search of a race."
Good won the GOP nomination in 2020 by beating one-term Rep. Denver Riggleman at a party convention after the incumbent riled the party base after he officiated a same-sex wedding between two of his former campaign volunteers. Things will be different in 2024, however. The 5th District GOP, which is in charge of deciding how the party chooses its nominee, says that Republican voters will pick their standard bearer during the June 18 statewide primary rather than at another convention. Trump carried the 5th District, which includes Charlottesville and western Southside Virginia, 53-45 in 2020.
● VA-10: State homeland security official Aliscia Andrews announced Wednesday that she'd seek the Republican nomination to succeed the Democrat who decisively defeated her in 2020, retiring Rep. Jennifer Wexton. Andrews lost that version of this Northern Virginia constituency 57-43 as Joe Biden was carrying the district 59-40; the current incarnation of the 10th would have supported Biden by a similar 58-40 margin.
● WI Redistricting: A group of Wisconsin voters, backed by a law firm that frequently represents Democrats, has asked the state Supreme Court to revisit its 2022 ruling implementing a new congressional map that heavily favored Republicans. In a new filing, these voters want the court to solicit proposed maps from the parties and then select one of them.
Litigants argue that the court's recent decision striking down the state's legislative districts compels it to reopen the case that established Wisconsin's current congressional map. That map was crafted according to a "least change" approach mandated by the court's previous conservative majority, meaning it made as few adjustments as possible to the prior map to ensure population equality between districts.
But that approach, which had the effect of preserving the GOP's existing gerrymander, was rejected by the court's new liberal majority in the legislative case. Calling the method "unworkable in practice," the court explicitly said it was "overrul[ing] any portions of [previous rulings] that mandate a least change approach."
Republicans currently hold a 6-2 advantage in the state's congressional delegation, but a new map drawn according to principles the court laid out in its recent ruling on the legislative maps could result in an even split between the parties.
Ballot Measures
● AK Ballot: The campaign seeking to end Alaska's groundbreaking top-four primary turned in signatures on Friday to place a measure on the November ballot that would repeal the system, but whether the proposal actually goes before voters remains to be seen.
Election authorities have a total of 60 days to verify that the organization behind the effort, Alaskans for Honest Elections, turned in approximately 27,000 valid signatures―a figure that represents 10% of the total number of votes that were cast in the most recent general election. Backers must also collect signatures equal to 7% of the total vote in three-quarters of Alaska's 40 state House districts.
That second goal may be a problem for top-four opponents. Phillip Izon, one of the leaders of the repeal effort, told the Anchorage Daily News' Iris Samuels that organizers feel confident they've collected the requisite number of petitions in only 26 of the necessary 30 constituencies. Izon added that signature-gathering efforts were underway in four other districts up until what Samuels characterizes as "the last moment."
Repeal backers submitted about 42,000 petitions last week, but not all of them may be included in the final tally. Alaskans for Better Elections, which supports the new status quo, has been running ads on social media informing voters who feel they "were misled into signing this petition" that they can remove their names.
One Alaskan told Samuels that a signature collector affiliated with the repeal movement informed her the petition was actually "just to give people a chance to say if they liked it or not." Izon responded, "[T]hat’s not how we train our people at all, so that’s a volunteer making a mistake."
Alaskans for Honest Elections is also facing other questions about just how honest it's been. In early January, the state's ethics commission fined the organization $94,000 for campaign finance violations, including directing much of its funding through a tax-exempt church. The group quickly announced it would challenge that decision in court.
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