Reproductive-rights supporters in Missouri announced a campaign on Thursday to put a constitutional amendment before voters. If passed, it would end the state's near-total ban on abortion and allow the procedure to take place about 24 weeks into a pregnancy. However, Missourians for Constitutional Freedom must overcome a tight signature-collection deadline, a hostile state government, and a rival campaign that wants to place a narrower measure on the ballot.
The new coalition, which includes local Planned Parenthood affiliates and the state's branch of the ACLU, has until May 5 to submit anywhere from 172,000 to 189,000 valid signatures. (Citizen-initiated amendments need to collect signatures equal to at least 8% of the vote in the last race for governor in six of the state's eight congressional districts, so the total will depend on which districts organizers target.)
Abortion-rights advocates had hoped to start sooner, but a long-running and costly legal battle with Republican Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft delayed them. Ashcroft, who is running for governor, responded to the group's draft proposals with summary language claiming they would "allow for dangerous, unregulated, and unrestricted abortions, from conception to live birth, without requiring a medical license or potentially being subject to medical malpractice."
A state court ultimately replaced Ashcroft's text, calling it "replete with politically partisan language." The state Supreme Court refused to hear his appeal, handing a win to organizers, but the fight cost them precious time.
And Ashcroft is by no means the only Show Me State conservative who wants to sabotage the proposed amendment. Last year, the GOP-dominated state legislature came close to placing its own proposal on the ballot to raise the required level of voter support for amendments from the current simple majority to a 57% supermajority. (Amendments advanced by the legislature do not need to collect signatures.)
The plan collapsed, however, during the final hours of the legislative session after a handful of far-right renegades in the Senate held up business in order to promote their own pet issues.
Just a few months later, Ohio Republicans failed badly in their attempt to convince their state's voters to pass a similar amendment, but their counterparts in Missouri are redoubling their efforts. "This initiative petition campaign to legalize abortion in the state of Missouri makes initiative petition reform even more important," state Sen. Denny Hoskins told his colleagues Thursday.
One proposal would mandate that amendments earn both a majority of the vote statewide and win in a majority of the 163 state House districts, a target that could be all but impossible for progressives to hit. Donald Trump carried Missouri 57-41 in 2020, but he won the median House district 61-36, placing it 9 percentage points to the right of the state as a whole. For a ballot measure to prevail, then, it would have to succeed in a district Trump won by 25 points.
The newly formed Missouri Freedom Caucus is a fan of this plan, and like its namesake in Congress, it's threatening to bring government to a halt if it doesn't get its way. The group put out a statement hours after MCF launched its campaign saying that "until leadership shows the urgency that they have promised time and again on this matter, the Missouri Freedom Caucus is determined to block any and all proposed Gubernatorial appointments in the Senate."
For the blockade to end, the rebels specified that the proposal described above—"or a similar bill"—needs to clear the Senate; the group did not make such demands on the House, where Speaker Dean Plocher is an ally on this issue. A livid state Senate President Pro Tem Caleb Rowden, who runs the upper chamber, responded to the provocation by calling it "the biggest show of bad faith I’ve ever seen in my life."
But if the Freedom Caucus gets its way, then voters taking part in the state's Aug. 6 primary would get to decide if they want to change the rules governing future amendments. Ashcroft's office says that any new requirements would apply as soon as the Nov. 5 general election, though one attorney predicted to the St. Louis Dispatch that litigation would ultimately determine when any such rules might go into effect.
If Missourians for Constitutional Freedom turns in the requisite signatures, it would be solely up to GOP Gov. Mike Parson, who is termed out this year, to decide whether the group's amendment would go before voters in August or November. Any amendments placed on the summertime ballot would take only a majority of the vote to pass, no matter what the legislature does, so the Freedom Caucus might pressure him to pick a later date. Republicans in competitive races, however, may not want to share a general election ballot with an abortion-rights initiative.
Complicating matters further, Missourians for Constitutional Freedom isn't the only force looking to place an abortion amendment before voters. Jamie Corley, a former Republican political operative and artist, launched a separate effort over the summer to allow the procedure to take place only 12 weeks of pregnancy. Corley insists her proposal would be easier to pass at the ballot box, but the head of the regional Planned Parenthood pushed back by arguing the rival proposal would "continue to harm Missourians."
If an abortion-rights measure does qualify, it could very well pass―as long as it needs only a majority to prevail, that is. The Democratic firm Civiqs finds that a 49% plurality of Missouri voters believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 47% say the opposite.
Correction: This piece incorrectly stated that Republicans had gerrymandered Missouri’s state House map. It was drawn by a unanimous bipartisan commission.
Campaign Action