Russian forces conducted another massive series of drone and missile strikes against deep rear areas in Ukraine between December 31 and January 2, one of which used a strike package similar to that used on December 29, and to which Ukrainian forces appear to be adapting.
Ukrainian military officials stated that overnight on December 31 to January 1 Russian forces launched 90 Shahed-136/131 drones from Cape Chauda and Balaklava (occupied Crimea); Kursk Oblast; and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai and that Ukrainian forces shot down 87 of the drones.[8] Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces also launched four S-300 missiles, three Kh-31P missiles, and one Kh-59 missile from occupied Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts on January 1. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that later in the afternoon on January 1, Russian forces later launched an additional 10 Shahed drones and one Kh-59 missile, and that Ukrainian forces shot down nine of the drones and the missile.[9] Ukrainian officials stated that the Russian strikes damaged a museum and part of the Lviv National Agrarian University in Lviv City and residential buildings in Odesa City and Esma, Sumy Oblast.[10] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that the Russian strikes on December 31 targeted unspecified Ukrainian airfields, although ISW has not yet been able to confirm strikes against Ukrainian airfield infrastructure.[11] Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed on January 1 that Russian strikes on January 2 would target military infrastructure in Ukraine like the strikes on January 1.[12]
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Ukraine said that US-supplied Patriot surface-to-air missile systems downed all 10 Kinzhal ballistic missiles Russia fired at the country in its large-scale attack Tuesday.
Kyiv earlier said Russia fired 99 missiles of different types on Ukraine — aimed at the capital Kyiv and northeastern Kharkiv — and that its air force shot down 72 of them.
Kinzhal missiles make up part of an arsenal of weapons that Putin has claimed were indestructible because of the speed at which they travel.
The attack prompted Ukraine to urge its Western allies to accelerate weapons deliveries.
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- Russian President Vladimir Putin identified the West as Russia’s “enemy” and implied that Russia is fighting in Ukraine in order to defeat the West.
- Putin’s framing of his war in Ukraine as a Russian struggle against the West – and not Ukraine – indicates that he does not intend to negotiate in good faith with Ukraine and is setting information conditions aimed at convincing the West to betray Ukraine through negotiations.
- Putin may be expanding his war aims in Ukraine to include confrontation with the West in an effort to set conditions for permanent Russian military buildup and to justify high battlefield sacrifices.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed Ukraine’s need for urgent Western support to protect both Ukraine and the rest of Europe in an interview with the Economist published on January 1.
- Russian forces conducted another massive series of drone and missile strikes against deep rear areas in Ukraine between December 31 and January 2, one of which used a strike package similar to that used on December 29, and to which Ukrainian forces appear to be adapting.
- Western provision of air defense systems and missiles to Ukraine remains crucial for Ukraine as Russian forces will likely attempt to adapt to Ukrainian air defense capabilities.
- Russian officials publicly defined the goals for Russia’s 2024 chairmanship of both BRICS and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), articulating how the Kremlin may intend to use these organizations to fulfill its foreign policy objectives this year.
- The Norwegian government announced on January 1 that it is permitting Norwegian defense companies to sell weapons and defense-related products directly to the Ukrainian government.
The Turkish government announced on January 2 that it will not allow the United Kingdom (UK) to transport two mine hunting ships to Ukraine via the Turkish Straits “as long as the war continues.”
- Russian society continues to reckon with the impacts of increasing anti-migrant sentiment amid Russian authorities’ ongoing efforts to systematically disenfranchise migrant communities within Russia.
- Russian forces made marginal confirmed advances along the Svatove-Kreminna line, northwest and southwest of Bakhmut, northwest of Avdiivka, and southwest of Donetsk City.
- The Russian military command may be seeking avenues to re-pardon recidivists who previously fought in the war in Ukraine in an apparent effort to maintain Russia's ability to leverage convict recruits as a manpower resource.
- Russian occupation authorities are restricting and likely monitoring internet communications ahead of the March 2024 presidential elections.
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Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces recently made marginal territorial gains southwest of Svatove and northwest Kreminna. Geolocated footage published on January 2 showed that Russian forces advanced west of Karmazynivka (11km southwest of Svatove) and Ploshchanka (15km northwest of Kreminna).[41] ...Russian and Ukrainian forces also continued positional engagements on January 1 and January 2 northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka and east of Petropavlivka; southwest of Svatove near Makiivka; west of Kreminna near Terny and Torske; and south of Kreminna in the Serebryanske forest area.[43] A likely Ukrainian Telegram channel claimed that Ukrainian forces struck a concentration area of the “Kuban” BARS-16 (Russian Combat Army Reserve) Cossack volunteer detachment based in occupied Lysychansk, Luhansk Oblast.[44] Elements of the Luhansk People’s Republic’s (LNR) 7th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd LNR Army Corps) are operating south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka.[45]
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Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances northwest and southwest of Bakhmut. Geolocated footage published on January 1 and 2 indicates that Russian forces advanced on the northern and eastern outskirts of Bohdanivka (northwest of Bakhmut).[46] Additional geolocated footage published on December 31 indicates that Russian forces advanced north of Kurdyumivka (southwest of Bakhmut).[47] Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that positional engagements continued northwest of Bakhmut near Bohdanivka and Khromove and southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdyumivka.[48] Elements of the Russian 98th Airborne (VDV) Division reportedly advanced in western Khromove west of Bakhmut, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim.[49]
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Russian forces recently made a confirmed advance northwest of Avdiivka as positional engagements continued near Avdiivka on January 1 and 2. Geolocated footage published on December 31 indicates that Russian forces advanced northwest of Stepove (north of Avdiivka).[50] ...Russian and Ukrainian sources stated that positional fighting continued northwest of Avdiivka near Novobakhmutivka, Berdychi, the Avdiivka Coke Plant; and near Stepove; southeast of Avdiivka near the industrial zone; and southwest of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske and Nevelske.[52] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on January 2 that Stepove is a contested gray zone.[53] Mashovets also noted that elements of the 15th and 21st Motorized Rifle Brigades (both of the 2nd Combined Arms Army [CAA], Central Military District [CMD]) and 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Donetsk People's Republic [DNR] Army Corps are operating north and northwest of Avdiivka, while elements of the 239th Tank Regiment (90th Tank Division, 41st CAA, CMD) are concentrating northeast of Avdiivka.
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Russian sources accused Ukrainian forces of conducting a strike against the Donbas Palace hotel in occupied Donetsk City on January 1, and unspecified Russian journalists are reportedly among the casualties. Russian state media and officials claimed that Ukrainian forces shelled Donetsk City just after midnight on January 1, and Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin claimed that strikes against central Donetsk City killed four and injured 13.[57] … Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed that the strike wounded ”several” Russian journalists.[59] Russian authorities have not offered information on the casualties except to claim that the casualties are civilians.[60] Ukrainian journalist Andriy Tsaplienko reported that unspecified members of the occupation elite had met at the Donbas Palace hotel with “guests from Moscow.”[61] ISW is unable to confirm Tsaplienko’s reporting, but reports of a high-profile dinner are consistent with milblogger claims of one or more Russian journalists being among the casualties of the hotel strike.
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